Eric Berger

Summary: Houston experienced an absolutely gorgeous day on Monday, and we’ve got a couple of more to go this week with dry air, mostly sunny skies, and pleasant temperatures. We’re still looking at a healthy chance of showers this weekend as a front passes, but accumulations look manageable, with 1 to 2 inches in total for most locations. In this post I also want to address the question of whether the region is likely to receive another freeze this winter.

Last freeze

Don’t look now, but January ends in a couple of days. If we look ahead for the next 10 days, I’m highly confident that we’re not going to see freezing conditions. This gets us through the first week or so of February. Then, the pattern looks fairly warm until the middle of the month, when we may see some cooler weather. But how cold? Will conditions turn freezing? At this point I’d lean toward no, but at that point we’re just outside the window of reliable weather forecasting.

The “average” date of the city’s last freeze comes in the middle of February for Houston, with a slightly later date for outlying areas. So my response to those who are asking whether Houston done with freezes yet for this winter is maybe. For areas south of Interstate 10, I might even say probably. But it’s not really a question I’ll be able answer with any confidence for another two weeks or so.

Tuesday

Temperatures are starting out in the 40s for most locations, a few degrees warmer than Monday. (If you were up early, you may have noticed the sunrise was gorgeous. Conditions will favor pretty sunsets for the next few days as well). It’s going to be another fine day, with low humidity, light winds, and a high temperature of around 70 degrees. Seriously, if you can steal some time outside today, I highly recommend it. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees warmer, dropping into the upper 40s for most.

Wednesday

This will be another fine day with highs of around 70 degrees and some drier air. We may see a few more clouds, but I still expect to see a fair amount of sunshine. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 50 degrees.

Thursday

As the onshore flow returns later on Wednesday or Thursday morning, we’ll start to see the air turn a bit more humid. The process will be somewhat gradual, however. Looks for highs Thursday of around 70 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday and Saturday

An upper-level disturbance will approach the region on Friday, bringing a healthy chance of rain. At this point there looks to be a chance of showers on Friday evening, but the better rain chances will hold off until Friday night, and Saturday. I’m not expecting anything too crazy, but much of the area should pick up 1 to 2 inches, with higher isolated totals. The best chance for thunderstorms will come Saturday morning, so if you have outdoor activities this weekend please have a back-up plan. Most likely the rains will end Saturday afternoon or evening.

Both Friday and Saturday will see highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, with fairly humid air. It looks like the surface front will arrive sometime on Saturday evening, ushering in drier and cooler air. Look for lows on Saturday night to drop into the 50s.

Sunday and next week

Sunday should be, like its namesake, sunny. Look for highs in the 60s. It also looks breezy, with a northwesterly breeze at 20 mph or so, with higher gusts. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the upper 40s, give or take. We should see highs in the 60s for the first half of the week, before the 70s return by Thursday or so. I think we’ll stay a little warmer for awhile at that point.

Summary: Under the influence of high pressure, the Houston region will see calm weather this week. We’re going to see some seriously nice conditions before the onshore flow returns by Thursday or so. Unfortunately the weekend will be marred by increasing rain chances. Saturday looks especially wet at this point.

Monday

It’s chilly outside, with lows dropping in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees in Houston this morning. These will be the coldest temperatures of the week, as we’ll see a gradual warming trend heading into the weekend. Skies today will be mostly sunny, with light winds from the northwest, and then the west. Low temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer, generally in the mid-40s in Houston.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days, with highs near 70 degrees, and plenty of dry air. Winds will be light. Lows will drop into the upper 40s for most locations. This will be seriously nice winter weather for Houston.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern will begin to change, slowly, with the return of a more pronounced onshore flow by Thursday. We’ll start to see humidity levels rise some, and winds will be a little more noticeable from the south at about 10 mph. Highs both days will be around 70 degrees, give or take, with partly sunny skies. By Friday night we may only see lows drop into the upper 50s, with a slight chance of rain in response to rising moisture levels.

Saturday and Sunday

In response to an upper-level disturbance we are going to see increasing rain chances from Saturday morning into Sunday morning. The precise contours of this rain are yet unclear, but it’s likely that we’ll see 1 to 3 inches with the best chances during the daytime on Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 60s on Saturday, and then cooler on Sunday in the wake of the cool front, perhaps only 60 degrees. Sunday, probably, will be mostly sunny. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 40 degrees.

Next week

The start of next week should see the continuation of sunny skies, with days in the 60s and nights in the 40s. All in all, things look fairly mild and dry.

Summary: January often yields fairly placid weather in Houston, but this year we’ve had a wild ride. The last 10 days have brought sub-freezing temperatures, a light dusting of ice on area roadways, and most recently some fairly heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Can we just get a break? Fortunately, the answer is yes.

Thursday

After the final round of storms moved through last night, we’re seeing slightly drier air filter into the region along with a weak front. Skies will eventually clear out some, so we should see partly sunny skies this afternoon to go along with highs of about 70 degrees and lower humidity. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s.

Friday

As I mentioned, it was a weak front, so it’s not going far. We’ll see the return of a southerly low as soon as Thursday night, so clouds will start to build by Friday morning. Some fog development is also likely. Highs again will be around 70 degrees, but this time with some more humidity. As a stronger front approaches we’re likely to see some rain showers on Friday afternoon and evening, especially across the eastern half of the metro area. The good news is that accumulations look to be fairly low, perhaps one to two tenths of an inch for most locations. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 50s.

Saturday

We’ll see sunny and breezy conditions on Saturday as much drier flow follows the front’s arrival. We may see some gusts up to 25 or 30 mph (closer to the coast) during the daytime, with highs likely in the mid-60s. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the mid-40s in the metro area, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Sunday

This will be a sunny day, with a high temperature of about 60 degrees. With lighter winds, expect overnight temperatures on Sunday night to bottom out at about 40 degrees in Houston, with outlying areas seeing the upper 30s.

Next week

We’ll experience sunny to partly sunny skies through around Wednesday, with highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s. After that time we should see the return of a southerly flow, with highs working their way toward 70 degrees with milder nights toward the end of the week. Some rain chances may return by Friday or Saturday, but nothing too significant looks to be in the cards.

Enjoy the quieter weather. I know I need a break.

Living in Houston is such a weird trip. We’ll go through an event like Hurricane Harvey and never, ever want to see another rain drop again. Then we’ll go through something like last summer, with its heat and drought, and the first decent rain of the fall will feel so damn cathartic. I don’t know about you, but after this week my pendulum has swung back toward not wanting to see it rain for awhile. I could do with some sunshine.

The good news is that the Sun will rise again. The bad news is that we have to get through tonight. Here’s a quick look at the forecast for the rest of today and tonight.

Wednesday night and Thursday

There have been plenty of rain showers across the metro area today, but accumulations have been manageable with most areas picking up 1 to 2 inches. We should see a few more hours of on-and-off showers before they become more scattered in nature this evening. This lull will be short lived however, as a weak front pushes through during the overnight hours.

What can you expect? Sometime between about midnight and 4 am, a broad line of showers and thunderstorms should push from west to east across the Houston region. There will be plenty of sound and fury, but the good news is that these storms should keep moving. I expect they will have cleared the area by around 4 to 6 am, so I don’t anticipate them posing a problem with getting out and about on Thursday morning. (Getting solid sleep on Wednesday night might be a problem, however, for those light sleepers among us.) In terms of accumulations overnight, I expect we’ll see some heavy rainfall, but due to storm motions I’d only anticipate accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches.

We should see partly sunny skies on Thursday, with highs of around 70 degrees and some drier air—so pretty darn nice out. The region will see another chance of showers (likely with minimal accumulations) later on Friday ahead of a stronger front. This will usher in several days of sunny skies and much drier air. So by Saturday morning we’ll be done with the rain for awhile.