Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston will see a brief reprieve from humidity today and tonight as a weak front moves in, stalls, and then moves back across the region. After this we will be warm through Thursday before a stronger front brings substantially colder and drier air into the region. At this vantage point, the weekend looks absolutely sensational.

Monday

The first front will move down toward the coast by around noon. This front will probably push just offshore, or it may get hung up right along the coast. Either way a very thin line of light showers may accompany the front, and it will usher in some notably drier air—for about 12 hours. That’s because the front will start lifting back north by Monday night or early Tuesday morning. The bottom line is that, the further inland you live, the longer the dry air will last. Most of us will still reach the low 80s today, albeit with less humidity, and Houston proper should drop into the upper 50s tonight before the front lifts back north.

Tuesday

This will be a warm, mostly sunny day with light southerly winds. Look for high temperatures in the low 80s, and overnight lows dropping only to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Expect another warm day, although with more clouds building over the area. Southerly winds will also be more pronounced, gusting perhaps to 20 or 25 mph.

Thursday

Our final 80-degree day of the week comes on Thursday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A reasonably strong front will arrive sometime later on Thursday, perhaps during the afternoon or evening hours. This is a challenging one to forecast because it looks as though there will be a fairly strong capping inversion in place—that is to say warmer air higher in the atmosphere that prevents moisture near the surface from rising. The bottom line is that if this cap holds in place over the metro area, this mostly likely will be a dry passage. But if the cap breaks, well, storms could be on the menu. Hopefully as we get closer to the front’s passage we can confidently say one way or the other. For now, I’m leaning toward a mostly storm-free passage, but with fairly strong winds Thursday night after the front moves through. Temperatures will drop to around 50 degrees late Thursday night as a result.

Friday

Expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s on Friday. Winds will be breezy from the north, but also lessening the further into the day we get. Lows on Friday night may drop into the mid- to upper-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer ones near the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend looks extremely pleasant. We will no doubt have to tweak the details. But for now we’re probably looking at mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Humidity will be slowly on the rebound, but it should remain mostly at bay through the weekend. This will be one to spend outdoors.

There will, frankly, be little change in Houston’s weather during the days ahead until a weak front arrives Sunday night. And even that will provide only a relatively short-lived reprieve from the more humid air we’ve been experiencing. So if you enjoy mild weather, you’re in luck. The other thing to note that there is not significant rainfall in the forecast for at least the next 10 days. This bodes well for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, along with the pre-rodeo festivities.

Thursday

With lighter winds, foggy conditions have returned this morning as temperatures and dewpoints are both about 70 degrees. This fog will dissipate this morning as temperatures climb. We should reach about 80 degrees beneath mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Low temperatures tonight will struggle to drop below 70 degrees.

Friday

A weak front will approach Houston on Thursday night, and stall somewhere to the west and north of the region. Areas inland of this boundary—approximated in the dewpoint map above—will see about 12 hours of moderately drier and cooler air. For most of the rest of us, Friday will be a lot of like Thursday, with cloudy skies, highs around 80 degrees, and lows of around 70 degrees.

Saturday

With high pressure holding sway, the weekend will be moderately warm and humid. For Saturday, we’re looking at partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80s. Lows Saturday night will fall to around 70 degrees in Houston. Rain chances are near zero.

Sunday

We may see a bit more sunshine on Sunday, with highs again around 80 degrees. By Sunday night rain chances should rise to 30 or 40 percent as a front approaches, and pushes into the region on Monday morning. As a result overnight lows should drop into the low 60s for most of Houston. Any rain accumulations will be slight, on the order of hundredths of an inch, probably.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should be moderately cooler, perhaps with highs in the upper 70s and drier air. Lows on both nights should drop into the 50s before a warmer pattern returns for the rest of the work week. Overall rain chances appear low through this period. By next weekend, however, the models are suggesting we’ll see several days of cooler and drier weather. Not too cold mind you, but perhaps nighttime temperatures down to around 50 degrees. We’ll see.

The story of the day for our region will be winds, as the Texas coast is caught between a fairly strong high pressure system anchored over Cuba and Southern Florida, and a developing low pressure system over the Western United States. Gusts this morning could reach up to 40 mph as winds blow out of the southwest. This warm flow will yield daytime temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s across the area, which almost certainly will break the day’s record high of 81 degrees, set in 2017.

Wednesday

As noted above, winds will peak this morning, out of the southwest, with gusts up to 40 mph. Partially clearing skies this afternoon should provide a boost to temperatures, with much of the area reaching the mid-80s, and some areas warmer than that. There is a slight chance of rain today, primarily for areas north of Interstate 10. Any showers would be fleeting, however. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s.

Thursday

As winds die down early on Thursday, some areas of dense fog are possible. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, which should help to limit high temperatures to the low 80s. Thursday night will be another warm one. A front will be approaching our region from the northwest on Thursday, but at this point I think it will stop short of substantially impacting the Houston metro area.

Friday

Stop me if I sound like a broken record, but we can again expect highs in the low 80s with mostly cloudy skies. And another warm night. Rain chances remain near zero through the end of the work week.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring more of the same, with muggy air, and partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low 80s. Rain chances won’t be zero, but they’re probably on the order of 10 percent each day, with any accumulations being slight.

Next week

Some sort of weak front should move into our region next week as high pressure finally eases off. While this is likely to bring a modicum of cooler air, the bigger change should hopefully come in the form of a drier air mass. We may have to wait until next weekend before a chance of lows falling into the 40s returns to Houston. Rain chances, overall, continue to appear low for the foreseeable future.

Houston’s abnormally toasty weather will continue for the next week, with a fairly stout ridge of high pressure helping to drive a warm southerly flow across the region. The only major forecast questions are: How warm will it get? And, how windy will Wednesday be?

Tuesday

There is a little bit more wind this morning, and this is helping to dissipate sea fog as it develops. Southwest winds will continue to build today, reaching gusts up to 20 or 25 mph. Skies will be partly sunny, and this will help high temperatures rise into the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances are near zero. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will struggle to fall below 70 degrees, and that southerly breeze may strengthen some as an upper-level low pressure system drops into North Texas.

Wednesday

Due to the tight pressure gradient, we’ll see strong winds on Wednesday, gusting to perhaps 40 mph. These will occur beneath partly sunny skies, allowing high temperatures to reach the mid-80s, with some far inland areas possibly reaching the upper-80s. It’s going to feel pretty warm, y’all. Rain chances will be on the order of 10 to 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm, mostly cloudy days with high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Winds, at least, will have slackened by Thursday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

More of the same is on the way for the weekend, although with the potential for partly sunny skies we may see highs slip into the low- or mid-80s. Rain chances look low, in the range of 10 percent, so any outdoor activities should be fine.

Next week

This very warm pattern may finally start to break down by late Sunday or Monday, as the dominant ridge of high pressure eases away. This may allow a weak front to push into the area, and introduce some drier air into the region. The global models aren’t suggesting that we’ll see a significantly cooler pattern for at least 10 to 12 days from now, however. The chance of significant rainfall looks to be really low for the next 10 days, as well, with only light showers possible for the most part.