This is bad for business, but as usual we’re going to be honest with you here. For the next few days, at least, you really do not need to check the daily forecast here at Space City Weather. We are in a persistent pattern of high-pressure dominated weather that will last for at least the next week, and quite possibly longer. This high anchored over the southwestern United States, is not going anywhere, any time soon.
High pressure will remain anchored over the southwestern United States for awhile. (Weather Bell)
The conditions that we’re going to experience through the middle of July are not atypical, per se, for this month. It is summer in Houston. It is hot. But the heat is going to be tenacious, with daily temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal, and without any let up. Every day is going to see high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Lows will barely fall to 80 degrees. And while there is a very slight rain chance this afternoon, overall chances will be 10 percent or less on most days. The entire metro area is under a heat advisory and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
Tuesday
Skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near or reaching 100 degrees for most of the region away from the coast. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph from the southwest. There is perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but most areas will not see anything resembling rainfall. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees in Houston.
Wednesday
A similar day, albeit with even lower rain chances. Look for highs in the upper 90s.
Above-normal temperatures are likely to persist through next week. (Pivotal Weather)
Thursday until ???
From Thursday, through the weekend, and at least into the middle of next week we are looking at hot and sunny weather, driven persistent high pressure. This means mostly sunny skies, highs near 100 degrees, and warm, humid nights. It is possible this pattern breaks somewhat by the middle or end of next week, but I would not hold my breath.
We talk about the heat index from time to time, and this characterizes the heat outside by factoring in both the temperature and relative humidity. This is also the basis for “feels like” temperatures on television broadcasts. But there is another, still more accurate measurement of heat stress if one must be out in the direct sunlight, and this is called the “Wet Bulb Globe Temperature.” It’s a bit of an odd name, but it takes a lot of factors into account, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, Sun angle and cloud cover. Chances are, if you’ve been in the military, you heard of the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature.
Recommendations for various levels of WetBulb Globe Temperatures.
The important thing to remember about these temperatures is that anything above 80 degrees requires precautions, and anything above 90 degrees is dangerous if you’re outside for a prolonged period of time. I say all of this because the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature is a good measurement to characterize the extremeness of the heat we’re going to see this week, and the bottom line is that it should not be quite as bad as what we experienced in June. Back then, daily Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures were consistently in the low 90s. This week we will be a few degrees below that. It will still be very warm, with a heat advisory in place for much of the region. But it won’t be quite as extreme.
Wet Bulb Globe Temperature forecast for this week. (Weather Bell)
Monday
That was a rather long introduction for what will be a short forecast as high pressure over West Texas influences our weather for this week and beyond. Expect mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. There is perhaps a 10 to 15 percent chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Light southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will provide little relief. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.
Tuesday
A similar day, with slight rain chances and highs in the upper 90s.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
Look for highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, sunny skies, and warm nights. Each day will be more or less the same as we bake.
NOAA’s rain accumulation forecast has an “abandon all hope ye who enter here” feel to it. (WeatherBell)
Saturday and Sunday
The temperature may increase slightly this weekend, as sunny skies prevail. Hot, hot, hot.
Next week
At this time I don’t foresee too much of a change heading into next week. There are some scenarios in which we start to see a decent chance of rain by around Tuesday or so of next week, but at this point it’s difficult for me to bet against persistent heat as high pressure reigns supreme. Rest assured, we’re looking for any signs of change.
Today will offer the Houston region its best chance for widespread rainfall in several weeks as a disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico propagates inland. Friday will be somewhat of a transition day before hot and sunny weather returns this weekend and pretty much all of next week. We are probably looking at a sustained stretch of 100-degree days.
Thursday
A large mass of showers and thunderstorms has developed to the southwest of our region, near Matagorda Bay. I expect these storms to gradually move toward Houston, and accordingly our chances for showers today will be highest from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Accumulations will be widely variable, with most of the area receiving 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Flooding should not be a significant concern, but a few streets may back up under the strongest storms. Showers will end this afternoon or early evening as daytime heating ebbs. Mostly cloudy skies and rain-cooled air should limit highs today in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Southerly winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph, with lows tonight in the upper 70s.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Thursday. (Weather Bell)
Friday
Skies will turn partly to mostly sunny on Friday, and highs should perk up into the low- to mid-90s. Some additional showers will be possible during the daytime, with heating. Overall chances are probably about 40 percent, and accumulations should be much less than on Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday
This looks like a classic July weekend, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s and mostly sunny skies. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of showers each day, but probably not enough to disrupt any outdoor activities you have. Please make sure to take precautions in the heat and (very nearly) direct sunshine at midday.
It’s back into the pressure cooker for Texas next week. (Pivotal Weather)
Next week
I wish the outlook were better, but unfortunately we’re going to see the return of very hot weather as high pressure once again builds over the region. We are looking at highs of around 100 degrees each day, beginning Monday. We may reach extreme heat advisories at some point. It looks like the heat will persist through at least the middle of the month, as the high pressure dome looks really stout.
Good morning. Houston faces the first of two days of fairly widespread showers, and the potential for some thunderstorms. Today and Thursday will offer a nice reprieve from the very high heat the region experienced in June. Temperatures will start to rise again this weekend, before we’re back in the upper 90s next week.
Before jumping into a detailed forecast, I want to go through a few housekeeping notes. The social network site Twitter used to be an amazing place to share weather information in real-time. However in the months steps have been taken to end the free dissemination of information, especially by National Weather Service accounts. The site has increasingly been gated and walled off, and is clearly evolving into something that will be not free and open and accessible to everyone. So our social media outreach strategy must evolve as well.
Today I wanted to remind readers of the four main ways to access our forecasts, and provide an update on our social media channels.
By subscribing to our newsletter (the form is on the right side of this page on a desktop, but you have to scroll down on mobile to find it). There is no BS with our newsletter; just every post we do, directly into your inbox.
By downloading our app for Apple iOS or Android. Speaking of which, we have a brand new version of the app, with some new features and bugs squashed, coming within a week or two. Look for more details on that soon. The price remains the same: $0.00.
And finally, there’s social media. We’re on Facebook, Instagram and yes, for now at least, Twitter. We’ve also just created a Blue Sky account, and likely will start a Threads account when it launches this week (Threads is a Twitter-clone from Facebook). We’re considering Mastodon as well, but I have to tell you, this is a lot to keep track of. As noted above, we’re still navigating this landscape and trying to decide which sites work best for our messaging, and reaching people during times of inclement weather.
OK, now on to the forecast.
Houston area rain chances for now through most of next week. (Space City Weather)
Wednesday
In the absence of high pressure, our region is open to an influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Already this morning we see showers starting to fire up offshore, and with daytime heating these should migrate inland later this morning. The peak time for showers and thunderstorms will come this afternoon. You probably have about a 60 percent chance of seeing rain today. Thanks to the clouds, and rain-cooled air, most of the region should see highs of only around 90 degrees today, although it will of course remain plenty humid outside. Winds will be light, out of the south.
Thursday
Our chances for rain will peak on Thursday, as the upper-air pattern becomes most favorable for rising air. The coast will likely see the highest accumulations, but the entire area should see at least some modest accumulations. I’m not particularly concerned about flooding, as I think most of the area will see between 0.5 to 1.5 inches, and our soils are quite dry. Highs Thursday may not even reach 90 degrees in some locations. Winds will again be light, from the south.
Friday
As high pressure starts building in again, we’ll see rain chances start to tamp back down. Look for partly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
Expect mostly sunny conditions this weekend, with highs likely in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances aren’t going away entirely, but we’re likely back down to a 10 or 20 percent chance, daily. Bottom line, it should be a hot, but not exceedingly hot July weekend. Conditions will be fairly typical for this time of year, actually.
Next week
Most of next week looks hot, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees for much of the area, and mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will be very low, but perhaps not zero. The bottom line is that if you like your weather on the sane side of blazing hot, enjoy the next few days.
