Eric Berger

Good morning. After scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, the potential for more organized storms returns to Houston this week, especially areas north of Interstate 10. Most of the region will see 1 to 4 inches of rain through Friday, although isolated areas beneath the heaviest storms could see 6 or more inches. Please note that we’re not looking at continuous rainfall this week, by any means. Monday, in particular, should see a fair bit of sun.

These rains, which will likely reach their maximum coverage on Wednesday, are due to a very moist atmosphere and a series of disturbances in the atmosphere. The overall pattern will support slow-moving storms, which is a concern due to the potential for high rainfall rates. At this time we’re not expecting significant or widespread flooding in the greater Houston area, however stronger and slow-moving storms will likely flood some roadways this week.

Monday

Showers today will be fairly scattered in nature, and due to at least partly sunny skies I think we’ll see a warm day with high temperatures pushing into the mid-90s for much of the area. Rain chances are likely about 40 percent for much of the day. However, late this afternoon or evening we should see a line of storms moving through our northern areas, such as Montgomery and Walker counties, in association with a boundary. This line of storms should steadily weaken, before (probably) dying around around Interstate 10. Things should quiet down overnight.

Tuesday

The potential for more widespread rainfall increases on Tuesday, with coverage of 50 to 60 percent of the area. Chances will be highest north of Interstate 10, in places such as Montgomery County. With more clouds, expect highs to peak around 90 degrees.

Wednesday

This is the day we expect the most widespread rain in the metro area, with chances of around 80 percent. We still don’t have great confidence in the timing of storms on Wednesday, but should be able to offer some better guidance in tomorrow’s post. Highs for most of the area should remain in the upper 80s.

Thursday and Friday

As the atmosphere starts to dry out some, rain chances should fall back to around 50 percent or so to end the work week. Look for highs of around 90 degrees, with partly sunny skies.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

I think the pattern will revert to more typical conditions for late summer this weekend, with partly to possibly mostly sunny skies, and highs climbing back into the low 90s. Rain chances are not zero, but likely will not be higher than 30 percent, or so, and will be driven by the afternoon sea breeze. If you were expecting us to fall into a high-pressure dominated hot weather pattern next week, don’t. All indications are we’re going to see healthy rain chances through the end of the month, with moderate highs in the low 90s.

Tropics

We are now officially in the heart of hurricane season for Texas, and the entire Atlantic basin. For us, this period runs for about the next six weeks, when the state is most vulnerable to hurricanes, and the Gulf of Mexico at its warmest to support them. So far, it has been a quiet year in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measurement of the duration and intensity of tropical systems. The Atlantic basin has seen just 13 percent of its average cyclone energy through this week, according to hurricane scientist Brian McNoldy.

The tropics are waking up, however. A tropical wave that recently moved off of Africa has a chance of developing this week as it traverses the Atlantic, although it will have to combat a fair amount of dry air over the next several days so it may dissipate. Behind this wave there are more, so we should expect to see activity continue to tick up. But the good news is that the season is slower than anticipated so far, and there’s no reason to think any of these systems are going to track near the Gulf of Mexico any time soon.

Good morning. I’m jumping in with a quick weekend update due to the ongoing wet pattern. We don’t have any concerns about significant, widespread flooding right now. However, these storms will bear a lot of moisture, and some will produce high rainfall rates that can quickly lead to flash flooding in Houston’s streets. This is a concern for today, and for the next week or so.

In terms of the overall picture, after a torrid start to summer Houston is in the midst of a stark pattern change due to an unsettled atmosphere that is producing lots of clouds, cooler daytime temperatures, and widespread showers. How about this for a stark contrast? Friday’s high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport was just 77 degrees (a record low maximum temperature for August 19). The region has not recorded a daily high that low since April 19. This pattern is likely to hold through most of next week, although daytime highs will not be that cool.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re going to see rainfall on both weekend days across much of the region, probably with 60 or 70 percent coverage, and the best chances coming between about 10 am and 6 pm CT on both days with daytime heating. Accumulations will be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for most, but a handful of locations could see 2, 3 or even more inches of rain beneath the heaviest storms that will have high rainfall rates. Otherwise, expect high temperatures generally in the upper 80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Next week

The pattern, if anything, turns wetter during the coming week for Houston and much of Texas as high pressure is gone and the state sees a series of atmospheric disturbances pass through. The best chance of rain will come for parts of north and east Texas, where upwards of 10 inches is possible through Friday. This is almost certainly going to cause flooding issues for parts of the Dallas metro area over to places like Texarkana. Closer to home, I think much of the area will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rain from Monday through Friday of next week. Highs most days will be in the mid- to upper-80s. These days will be partly to mostly cloudy, with limited chances for sunshine until Friday most likely.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has designated a tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico “Potential Tropical Cyclone Four,” and it should move into the northern coast of Mexico, and South Texas, during the next 24 hours. Whether it organizes sufficiently before then to become a tropical depression or storm is largely moot, as it is principally a rainmaker, likely to bring several inches of rain to those areas. The Upper Texas coast may see some ancillary moisture from this system that will support rain on Sunday or Monday, but we don’t see any serious, direct effects.

Good morning. It has been a long, hot—so very, very hot—summer in Houston. June and July were the warmest on record for the city, and so far August has run slightly above normal. But that’s now about to change. The arrival of a weak front later today will kick off a significant pattern change that will bring temperatures generally in the low 90s, with a decent chance of rain, for at least the next week. I would go so far as to say that, after today, it is possible if not probable that the metro area may not record another 100-degree day in 2022. The rest of August really does look quite reasonable, and then we’ll have to see about September.

Thursday

The watchword for today is uncertainty. We have boundaries between air masses all over the place, plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with, and a weak front that will be advancing southward later today. We can’t have complete confidence in the specifics about how this will play out, but here’s what we can say more generally about the forecast. Today will be another hot one, with much of the region at least reaching the upper 90s this afternoon. I think the radar will remain pretty quiet until 2 or 3 pm, after which time we should start to see showers and thunderstorms blossoming across the region. The preferred area will be north of Interstate 10, but areas closer to the coast probably won’t miss out entirely. Storms should become more widespread late this afternoon and evening, before weakening overnight.

What should your expectations be? As is usual with thunderstorms, there probably will be plenty of lightning, and some stronger winds in the stronger thunderstorms. Much of the region will pick up 0.25 to 2 inches of rain through tonight, although lower accumulations are possible right along the coast. Street flooding is possible within the stronger thunderstorms.

Friday

Rain chances Friday will depend to some extent on what happens Thursday, but a healthy chance of showers remains. I don’t think storms will match the intensity of Thursday’s, but we’ll have to see. Look for highs in the low 90s with partly sunny skies for much of the area. If you were expecting the front to bring cooler nighttime temperatures, you should temper your expectations. We’re not going to see much of a change in humidity or lows. It’s mid-August, y’all, and summertime fronts just don’t pack that kind of punch this far south.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same for this weekend, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 90s. Rain chances each day will be about 50 percent, but for the most part these should be showers that pass through fairly quickly (see caveat, in the Tropics section below).

Next week

Every time we’ve seen a bit of a reprieve this summer from deep heat, high pressure has pretty quickly built back over the region. However, we don’t expect that to happen this time. Instead, the upper Texas coast will fall between a ridge to our west, and low pressure to our east. As a result we should see a string of partly to mostly cloudy days with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Each day should have a healthy chance of rain in the 30 to 50 percent range, but it’s way too early to have much confidence in any details. This pattern should hold for awhile. Pretty great for late August, right?

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to track the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming in the Southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. Chances remain fairly low for this system to become a tropical depression or storm. As for local effects, this disturbance could increase our region’s rain chances on Sunday and Monday, but it’s just too early to tell. For now, I’m leaning toward the idea that it won’t have much of an impact.

Good morning. Houston faces two more hot days before a weak front arrives to provide some relief, mostly in the form of cloudier skies, which will bring down temperatures, as well as producing scattered to widespread showers. After Thursday we should be done with high temperatures in the triple digits for awhile, which sounds great to me.

If we may, Matt and I would also like to take a moment this morning to thank all of the teachers in the greater Houston area. Kids have, or soon will, return to schools across the region and I know teachers have already been hard at work preparing for classes. You all have difficult jobs, particularly in dealing with parents and administrators, and we certainly appreciate your efforts to teach our children. We’re only sorry that we couldn’t give you better weather this summer.

Wednesday

Today’s going to be hot as the region bakes beneath a ridge of high pressure. Expect highs to range from the upper 90s to low 100s, with sunny skies. Some scattered showers are possible for northern areas, such as Montgomery County, but the rest of us will be dry. Winds will be light, out of the southwest, at around 5 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy overnight, with lows briefly dropping below 80 degrees in the city.

Thursday

This is going to be another hot day, with highs likely comparable to Wednesday for Houston, especially the southern half of the region. The big story of the day will be the weak front, which will drift southward during the day. At this point I anticipate showers and thunderstorms developing north of Houston during the late morning hours and pushing down into the metro area during the afternoon hours. These storms may reach the coast by around sunset, give or take a couple of hours. Showers and thunderstorms remain likely overnight, with area-wide rain chances at about 60 to 70 percent. These storms could produce briefly heavy rainfall, and damaging winds.

Friday

Rain chances on Friday will be governed to some degree by the extent to which storms on Thursday work over the atmosphere. If we get fairly decent rains on Thursday the atmosphere may be fairly stable, leading to more scattered showers on Friday. Fewer rains on Thursday probably would lead to more widespread showers on Friday. Anyway, look for highs to peak in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies. Overall rain accumulations should be greater this week for inland areas, with lesser totals near the coast.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with daily rain chances of about 50 percent. I don’t anticipate any washouts, but passing showers could briefly disrupt your outdoor activities. Highs will generally be in the low 90s, but I think some far inland areas could sneak into the mid- or upper 90s. Right now there are just no indications that the remainder of August will be insanely hot, nor even abnormally so.

We’re also looking toward the tropics at the area of low pressure Matt wrote about on Tuesday, but our overall thinking remains the same in terms of the overall low potential for a tropical storm to develop. This system may bring enough moisture to elevate our rain chances along the Upper Texas coast on Sunday and the early part of next week, and it may not. Regardless, we appear to be looking at a pattern of slightly cooler than normal weather, with highs mostly in the low 90s for next week. It’s difficult to beat that in late August, my friends.