Eric Berger

Good morning. With winter about one-half over, I thought we might take a moment to look back at what has come, and look forward to what is left. Although the region experienced a deep freeze during the days preceding the Christmas holiday, it has otherwise been a rather warm season. Overall, the month of December finished with an average temperature 1.7 degrees above normal. January, so far, has been very warm. The month’s average temperature of 62.3 degrees is running 9.1 degrees above normal.

After today and Wednesday, however, it looks like the rest of January will see more seasonable weather. I expect near normal, or slightly below normal, temperatures during the last 10 days of the month. In other words, our flirtations with 80-degree days probably will be over for awhile. February is the last month of the winter that typically can produce sustained, deep cold weather. Seasonal model guidance—which is not particularly reliable—suggests February will see near normal temperatures.

If you’re wondering about a freeze, the average date of the “last freeze” in Houston comes about one month from now in the city of Houston; sooner for the coast, and later for areas further inland. I give the city of Houston about a 10 or 15 percent chance of seeing sub-freezing temperatures during the remainder of January. As for February, who knows? While it’s entirely possible the region has seen it’s last freeze, no responsible meteorologist would say we are done with freeze chances during the winter of 2022-2023.

Tuesday

Today is going to feel like anything but winter. The region will see highs near, at, or above 80 degrees thanks to a warm southwesterly flow. Temperatures at your location will depend on how much sunshine breaks through partly cloudy skies this afternoon, but it will be warm and humid for mid-January regardless. Winds will be fairly light, out of the south at about 5 to 10 mph. Don’t expect much of a cooldown tonight, with temperatures dropping only into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

A front will approach the area on Wednesday morning, leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for a little bit of severe weather. Overall chances for damaging winds and possible a tornado are more favorable to the northeast of Houston, however. The front itself should arrive in Houston around noon, with an influx of drier air bringing a pretty quick end to rain showers. Temperatures will drop from the 70s ahead of the front into the 60s during the afternoon and evening, with overnight lows falling to around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions for inland areas.

Thursday

This should be a mostly sunny day, with highs in the upper 60s, and moderate northerly winds. Lows on Thursday night will probably drop into the upper 40s in Houston.

Friday

Some clouds will start to return on Friday with a more easterly flow. This will hold down high temperatures to the low 60s, with lows on Friday night in the low 50s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see a healthy chance of rain as the atmosphere moistens up a bit, and supports rising air. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 60s. Rain is most likely during the daytime hours, and I think we’ll average about one-half inch, with some areas picking up a little more, and other areas a little less. While I can’t entirely rule out a thunderstorm, most of these rains should be of the moderate variety. Chances diminish after dark, and I expect lows to drop into the upper 40s on Saturday night as drier air moves in.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend should see clearing skies and highs in the low 60s. Sunday night looks fairly chilly, in the mid-40s perhaps for Houston.

Next week

A warming trend begins on Monday or Tuesday of next week, but that looks to be stopped in its tracks by a reinforcing front. Thus, most of next week will probably see highs around 60 degrees, and lows around 40 degrees. That is fairly typical for late January in Houston, and will come as good news for those who have been wondering where the heck winter has gone this month.

Good morning, and I hope you had a fine weekend. Houston will see three warm days before a more winter-like pattern returns to the region. That is not to say it will be blisteringly cold, but rather simply that we’ll see highs generally in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and 50s. We will also have a smattering of rain chances, but as of now there is nothing too significant on the horizon.

MLK Day

If you’re planning to attend one of the parades that mark today’s holiday, you can expect warm conditions, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and mostly cloudy skies. I cannot rule out a few very light showers this afternoon, but I don’t anticipate thunder or anything disruptive. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low 60s, except for far inland areas such as College Station, that may drop lower as a bit of drier air moves in from the northwest.

Tuesday

Some fog will be possible near the coast on Tuesday morning, but this will dissipate as temperatures warm up in the morning hours. This will be a partly sunny and warm day, with high temperatures reaching 80 degrees for much of the area away from the coast. Record high temperatures for several locations are definitely in play with a warm, southwesterly flow over the region. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will only drop into the mid- to upper-60s.

Wednesday

This will be another warm-ish day ahead of the next cold front, with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s. We’ll also see a decent chance of rain, especially during the afternoon hours, just ahead of the front. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms and severe weather, but conditions are more favorable to the east and northeast of Houston. The front itself will probably arrive during the afternoon or evening hours, clearing skies and driving lows down to around 50 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

These have the look of pleasant days, with highs in the 60s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows will be in the low 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks wet with the onshore flow returning, and highs in the low 60s. I don’t expect anything too crazy, but a few tenths of an inch of rain looks possible, with a few thunderstorms. A reinforcing front arrives Saturday night to bring us more dry air. Sunday will see highs in the low 60s, therefore, with overnight lows dropping into the 40s.

Next week

There are some hints in the models of a stronger front arriving on Tuesday or so of next week, which could lead to overnight lows in the 30s, and possibly even a light freeze. I have very low confidence in such an outcome at this point, but I’ll take a deeper look tomorrow as I know some of you are already wondering whether Houston has had its last freeze of the 2022-2023 winter. All I can say is that, right now, it’s far too early to make any definitive statements.

Good morning. Temperatures have dropped into the 40s this morning, and if you like chilly winter weather the next couple of days are something you should soak up. Starting on Sunday we’ll see considerably warmer weather that will probably culminate next week with a day or two in the 80s. It is likely that a couple of fronts will bring colder weather into the region after that, with potentially a bit of rain.

Friday

There’s not much to say about today, which will see fine, chilly, and clear weather. Highs will reach about 60 degrees beneath sunny skies, with northerly winds at about 10 mph. Tonight will be the coldest of the year so far, with lows dropping to around 40 degrees in Houston, and the mid- to upper-30s for inland areas.

Saturday

The day will start chilly, but with sunshine we should see highs climbing into the low- to mid-60s. Winds will start to shift from northeast, to east, to southeast throughout the day, and this will herald the return of warmer conditions for next week. A few clouds will start to trail inland with the onshore flow for Saturday night, and lows will likely only drop into the low 50s on Saturday night.

Sunday

This will be one of those classic transition days from a cooler to a warmer pattern, dominated by onshore winds. If you’re running the Houston Marathon, well, the first hour or two should see temperatures in the upper 50s. But pretty quickly it’s going to warm into the 60s on Sunday morning, with rising dewpoints, so evaporative cooling won’t be particularly efficient. Highs on Sunday afternoon will reach the mid-70s, with partly sunny skies, and winds gusting from the south at up to about 20 or 25 mph. Lows Sunday night will only drop into the mid-60s.

MLK Day

There is perhaps a 30 percent chance of light rain on Monday, particularly during the morning hours. Hopefully this won’t interfere with the parades, but it’s possible both will see some sprinkles. But any accumulations should be slight. Otherwise we can expect a mostly cloudy day, with highs in the upper 70s and plenty of humidity.

Tuesday onward

Tuesday looks to be a rather warm day, with partly sunny skies and highs perhaps reaching the lower 80s. Wednesday looks like it could see a decent amount of rainfall, perhaps half an inch give or take, which will herald the arrival of a weak front. Conditions for the rest of next week and weekend will depend on whether one or more reinforcing fronts make it through. I do think conditions by next weekend will be fairly chilly, but that could mean anything from lows in the 30s to about 50 degrees, so as always, we’ll have to wait for the details to come into focus.

I hope everyone has a great weekend. We’ll be back on Monday with some of those details, hopefully.

A cold front is moving through Houston this morning, and this will bring much drier air into the region through Saturday. Then, our roller coaster continues with temperatures on the upswing through Wednesday of next week before a series of cold fronts cool us back down again. In terms of precipitation, there’s not too much to write home about until at least early next week.

Thursday

There is a wide range of temperatures across our region this morning, with far inland areas dropping into the 50s behind the front, and coastal areas in the low 70s before its arrival. The front will be off the coast by 8 or 9 am CT this morning, with rapidly dropping dewpoints and brisk northerly winds heralding its arrival. Temperatures this afternoon will hold at about 60 degrees before dropping tonight into the low 40s in Houston, with colder conditions further inland. Gusty winds today should start to back off some overnight.

Friday

This will be a fine winter day, with high temperatures around 60 degrees, and moderate northerly winds of about 10 mph. Friday night will be the coldest of the week, with lows dropping to 40 degrees or so in Houston, and the mid- to upper 30s for outlying areas.

Saturday

This will be another sunny day, with highs in the low 60s. As winds turn more southerly, however, we’ll start to feel the effects of the onshore flow with a little humidity in the air, and warmer temperatures on Saturday night. Lows will drop to around 50 in Houston.

Sunday

A full on warming trend will be underway by Sunday. Start-line temperatures for the Houston Marathon will likely be in the mid- to upper-50s, climbing toward a high in the mid-70s with a decent amount of humidity. With increasing atmospheric moisture, I expect Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy, but rain is not a concern. Winds may be a bit gusty out of the south, at 20 to 25 mph. Lows on Sunday night will only drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

This warming trend will persist through about Wednesday, with daily highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, partly sunny days, and warm nights. Some scattered showers are possible each day, but overall chances probably will be low until Wednesday, ahead of the next front. This first front should knock lows into the 50s, and models are hinting that an additional shot of colder air could be in the cards for next weekend, dropping lows into the 40s or possibly 30s. But that’s a long ways out for now, so we’ll just have to wait and see what unfolds.