Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston will see a brief warm-up today, with a healthy chance of rain showers, before a front ushers in the coldest week of the year since the depths of last winter. And by cold, I mean daytime highs mostly in the 50s, which is really rather chilly for mid-November. So dress warmly.

We are entering the second week of our annual fundraiser for Space City Weather. This is your one opportunity to support what we’re doing here. Your purchase of merchandise, and donations (select “make a donation only”), compensates Matt and I for the work we do, keeps the site online during even the worst of storms, and allows us to contine developing our app, which is free for all. We are gratified by the response so far.

Monday

Temperatures this morning are starting out in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the Houston metro area. Highs today should reach the mid-60s, and while this may not sound all that warm, it probably will be the warmest weather our region experiences this week with another front on the way. Before this front arrives, however, moisture associated with a low pressure system offshore will help to generate a healthy chance of rain today, mostly from around 10 am to 6 pm. Rain accumulations will be greatest along the coast, where 1 to 2 inches may fall. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. Further inland, amounts will decline to 0.25 to 0.75 inch, approximately, but almost everyone should see precipitation. The front’s arrival late this afternoon and evening will help shove the coastal low away, and bring drier air into Houston. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday

Expect a partly to mostly sunny day, with northerly winds gusting to perhaps 20 or even 25 mph. Highs will be in the mid-50s. Rain chances are zero. Lows Tuesday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland. Some far northern areas, such as Huntsville, may see a light freeze.

Wednesday

This day will be similar to Tuesday, albeit with a few more clouds, and perhaps slighty less wind out of the north. Normal highs for this time of year are about 70 degrees, but we’re going to be experiencing dead-of-winter conditions this week. Dress warmly!

Thursday and Friday

The cold weather train chugs on to end the work week, with highs in the mid- to upper-50s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will again drop into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

Conditions for this weekend remain uncertain. Days are likely to remain chilly, with highs in the 50s. But nighttime temperatures may moderate slightly as skies turn more cloudy. The overall pattern may bring another coastal low pressure system near the region, so we’re looking at the possibility of rain showers from Friday night into Saturday, with the best chances again near the coast. However, it’s too early to have much confidence in the finer details of the forecast beyond saying there’s a 40 percent chance of rain, or so.

Next week

So what does all this mean for conditions next week, and the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 24? Ten days is at the edge of our ability to forecast, however we can say a few things. At this point it appears another front may push into the area early next week, bringing us one more blast of colder air. The details on that are pretty fuzzy, but after this conditions should finally moderate back toward more “normal” weather for late November. By Wednesday or Thursday, therefore, the region may start to see highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s. For Thanksgiving, there is actually a decent signal in the global models for some rainfall but at 10 days out that really is a crapshoot. So my early forecast for Turkey Day calls for somewhat warmer, and possibly wetter weather. But there is a long ways to go, and a lot of turkey puns to write, before we get to a locked-in forecast.

Good morning. We’re jumping in on a Saturday morning to highlight the likelihood of very cold temperatures tonight across the metro area, and the potential for a freeze to the north.

If you’ve stepped outside you already know that it’s rather chilly. This is the result of colder and drier air working into the region during the overnight hours. With brisk northerly winds today, gusting up to 25 mph, more dry air will be moving in today. Highs will struggle to reach 60 degrees. This evening, as winds die down and with clearing skies, we’re going to see ideal conditions for cold weather.

Although I still think the urban core of Houston will remain at about 40 degrees tonight, areas north, west, and east of central Houston will drop into the 30s. Models have been trending colder with this air mass—hence this morning’s update—and we wanted people to be ready. Areas such as Katy, the Woodlands, and Kingwood will probably remain in the mid- to upper-30s tonight. However, areas further inland, including parts of Montgomery County, Brazos Valley, and the Piney Woods, may drop into the lower 30s and have a shot of seeing the region’s first freeze since mid-March.

The rest of the forecast is more or less on track, as Matt described on Friday. Sunday night won’t be nearly as cold and we’ll warm up briefly on Monday, at which point we’ll see a healthy chance of showers ahead of the next cold front. That one will keep things on the chilly side for the rest of next week. And by chilly side, I mean most days will be in the 50s, with lows perhaps around 40 degrees. In other words, inland areas will probably be looking at more freezing chances next week. We’ll have more for you on Monday.

Finally, just a brief reminder that we’re in the midst of our Annual Fundraiser. You can buy merchandise or support us with donations by visiting our main page. “Donate only” is any option under any of the merchandise selections. Thank you!

The Houston area is seeing moderately drier and cooler air this morning, with lows in the mid-60s. We will continue a slight downward trend in temperatures until the arrival of a strong cold front on Friday that ushers in much colder air for the weekend, and beyond. It still looks as though inland parts of the area will drop down into the upper 30s by Sunday morning, so this should be our first real taste of what passes for winter-like weather in Houston, since March.

Thursday

Western parts of the area are again seeing some patchy fog, but this will burn off within an hour or two of sunrise as air temperatures warm. Highs today will likely be in the low 80s, with mostly sunny skies, and light easterly winds. Those winds will be transporting moderately drier air as a result of the overall circulation of Hurricane Nicole, which struck the eastern coast of Florida early this morning. Low temperatures Thursday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Friday

Veteran’s Day will start out a lot like Thursday, and if you are attending any ceremonies during the morning hours the chance of rain is low. We will see the potential for at least some scattered showers during the afternoon hours, however, with the best chances during the evening hours before midnight. The front itself should move into the area, from northwest to southeast, during the late morning to late afternoon hours. As a result, highs on Friday will probably reach the upper 70s, with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will plunge overnight, into the 40s.

Saturday

Skies will be mostly sunny on Saturday, with highs topping out at about 60 degrees. Winds will be brisk, gusting out of the north at up to 20 or 25 mph, although these will start to ease off during the the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday night, likely in the low 40s in central Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Sunday

Skies should be partly to mostly sunny on Sunday, with high temperatures around 60 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will be about 5 degrees warmer that Saturday night as our air moderates somewhat.

Next week

Houston’s air will start to warm up, and become more humid on Monday in response to a more southerly flow. A low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to bring a healthy chance of rain on Monday, as highs get into the mid- to upper-60s. But just as you think warm weather might be coming back, a reinforcing cold front will arrive later on Monday to bring winter-like conditions back. Most of the rest of next week will likely see partly cloudy days, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and nighttime lows in the 40s.

Fundraiser

On Tuesday Space City Weather kicked off our annual fundraiser, and we really appreciate the support so far. Head over here to our fundraiser page to choose from a selection of merchandise, or to simply donate money (select “make a donation only”). This is your one chance during the year to directly support the work we do!

Good morning! Houston will see one more day in the mid-80s today, with slightly cooler and drier weather to end the work week. And then, straight from the blue white north, a cold front will arrive and smack the region into late fall or early winter-like conditions, potentially driving low temperatures into the upper 30s for inland areas by Sunday morning. After that, we’re unlikely to see daily highs warmer than the 60s for at least the next week.

On Tuesday Space City Weather kicked off our annual fundraiser, and the support so far has been tremendous. Head over here to choose from a selection of merchandise, or to simply donate money (select “make a donation only”). Some sharp eyed readers noticed a minor error on the Four Seasons of Houston t-shirt. Thank you for letting us know. Rest assured that will be corrected before the shirts are printed and shipped.

Wednesday

With dewpoints nearly matching air temperatures, some parts of the region are seeing fog this morning. This will quickly burn away as temperatures rise. We are going to see another mostly sunny day, with highs likely reaching the mid-80s. Overall, today should pretty much be a carbon copy of Tuesday. Overnight lows might be a degree cooler, but again much of the area will drop into the mid-60s. Of note: Today’s high will probably be the warmest temperatures we see for the remainder of 2022.

Thursday

Some slightly drier air will begin to work its way into the Houston area from the east, and this should help bring temperatures and humidity down slightly. Look for highs of around 80 degrees, with sunny skies. Overnight lows should drop into the low 60s.

Friday

A cold front will arrive on Friday, Veteran’s Day. If you are planning to attend ceremonies that day, I think conditions will be alright. Some scattered showers are possible during the daytime hours, but this does not look to be an in-your-face frontal passage. The bulk of the drier air will be delayed, and unlikely to move into Houston until later on Friday night, when surface winds will kick up. The bottom line is that we can expect scattered daytime showers, with highs probably in the upper 70s. Rain chances increase during the evening hours, with drier and colder air moving in after dark, and rains ending overnight. Much of the area will probably see between 0 and 0.5 inch of rain before sunrise on Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday

We’ll wake up to temperatures in the upper 40s to 50 degrees on Saturday morning. Skies should start to clear out some by the afternoon. Highs will probably reach about 60 degrees, but it will still be chilly out with a northerly breeze gusting to 20 or 25 mph. These winds should die down over night, and with clearing skies lows will drop into the upper 30s for inland areas, and low- to mid-40s for most of the rest of the region. This probably will be out coldest night since mid-March. Sunday should be partly to mostly sunny, with a high of around 60 degrees. Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday night.

Next week

Most of next week will feel fairly winter-like for Houston, with highs around 60 degrees, partly to mostly cloudy skies, and lows in the 40s or perhaps low 50s. Some scattered rain chances will be sprinkled throughout the week. Looking even further ahead I’d love to be able to offer you some early guidance about what to expect for Thanksgiving, but it’s just too early to have any confidence, and I’d be a turkey if I told you otherwise.