Eric Berger

Houston recorded its first 90-degree day this year way back on April 5, a little more than six months ago. Since then Houston has recorded a total of 130 days of 90-degree weather, or warmer. My bold prediction this morning is that, after a few more such days, we’re done with 90-degree temperatures for 2022. Put another way, after this week, we can chunk 90-degree weather in the bin for about six months.

Tuesday

Alas, we’re not there yet, and we will see rather warm weather this week. Look for highs today in the upper 80s, with mostly sunny skies. It won’t be full-on humid outside, but the air will start to feel more moist than it has in days past. Winds will be light, out of the southeast. Low temperatures tonight may not fall below 70 degrees in the city of Houston.

Wednesday

This is going to be a really hot day for mid-October, with high temperatures in the low 90s. Skies will be partly sunny and humidity levels are going to surge. So be prepared to sweat when you step outside. This moisture will help lead to some cloud cover, and there is a slight potential for some rain during the daytime on Wednesday, but it is only 20 to 30 percent, so if you see any rain, you should feel lucky.

Thursday and Friday

A weak front arrives by Thursday to bring some relief. It won’t be much, but it may knock highs back into the upper 80s, and bring enough dry air to make the humidity a bit more tolerable. Nighttime lows should drop back into the upper 60s for Houston, with slightly cooler weather inland.

Saturday and Sunday

Summer’s last hurrah? Probably not, as we’re still going to see warm weather in 2022. But this will be one of the last truly warm weekends of the year with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and mostly sunny skies. A chance of rain returns to the forecast on Sunday as atmospheric moisture levels increase, and our weather becomes more disturbed due to the approach of a stronger front.

Next week

My confidence is increasing in the arrival of a real cold front next week, probably on Monday. This will bring us our best chance of rainfall in what seems like forever, although it is still too early to have much ability to predict how much. It’s not out of the question that much of the area sees on the order of 1 inch, however. I think lows will drop into the 50s next week, in the wake of the front, but again that’s not something we can lock in just yet. But, I’m hopeful.

Good morning. As Matt wrote last week, our region’s start to fall is the driest on record. Unfortunately, I do not expect that to change much this week, although some modest rain chances will return. This week will also be warmish, with a few days flirting with 90 degrees. However, I’m starting to see some potential for our weather to turn wetter and cooler about one week from today. Emphasis on potential.

Monday

Temperatures have generally fallen into the low 60s this morning, although the usual locations further inland are seeing lows in the upper 50s. Today should be similar to Sunday in that we see highs in the upper 80s with mostly sunny skies, and light northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph. As some dry air holds on most of the city should drop into the mid-60s tonight, with clear skies.

Tuesday

Highs and skies will be similar to Monday, with temperatures in the upper 80s and mostly sunny skies. However we’re going to see southeasterly winds and a corresponding increase in humidity. As a result we can expect lows Tuesday night to be warmer, possibly only dropping to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

There is an honest-to-goodness chance of rain on Wednesday, but unfortunately it’s probably only about 30 percent. The forecast has trended drier, in terms of rain, despite a decent influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Some areas may pick up a quarter of an inch of rain, or so, but I think much of the region will only see some clouds. At the same time, this moisture will really bump up humidity levels, so this is going to feel like a pretty warm summer day with highs perhaps in the low 90s. It’s difficult to see too many more days like this in 2022, so you summer lovers make sure and soak this one up.

Thursday and Friday

A weak front should push into the area early on Thursday. Don’t expect miracles from this one, but it should be enough to drop temperatures back into the upper 80s, with drier air, and push nighttime lows into the 60s. Mornings and evenings should feel pretty nice.

Saturday and Sunday

The front should wash out by the weekend, so we’re going to see humidity levels start to return. I’d expect highs somewhere in the mid- to upper-80s with mostly sunny skies. I’m honestly not sure about the potential for rain. With the onshore flow I think it’s possible, but for now I’d peg daily chances at only 20 or maybe 30 percent, with perhaps a bit higher likelihood on Sunday. We’ll see.

Next week

We’re getting to the limit of weather forecast models by Monday or Tuesday of next week, but there is a decent signal for potentially a stronger front to push into Houston around that time, accompanied by a pretty healthy chance of rain. If this happens I think much of the area could see a nice soaking, followed by cooler weather. The bottom line is that right now we may be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel for a very dry fall. Hopefully it’s not an oncoming train.

It is another pleasant, early fall morning outside with lows generally in the low 60s. We are going to continue our recent warming trend for a couple of more days before some moderate relief arrives in the form of a weak front on Saturday. So the weekend looks pretty nice.

I’m still hopeful that we will finally start to see a bit of rainfall next week—College Station has not received measurable rainfall since September 7th, and it’s been more than three weeks for most of the region. Matt will have more on this tomorrow, and the reemergence of drought conditions in the region.

Thursday

If you look on the radar this morning, you’ll actually see some showers offshore in association with a low pressure system. Alas the atmosphere over land is pretty dry still, and I don’t expect this precipitation to move inland. Instead, we’re likely to see partly sunny skies today, with highs around 90 degrees or a touch above. Winds will be light, out of the north, at about 5 mph. Lows tonight will probably be a degree or two warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

Friday will be similar to Thursday, although potentially just a bit warmer and with a few more clouds. Winds should again be light, generally out of the north. A weak front will move through late Friday and early Saturday morning, but it should hardly be noticeable as drier air will lag behind somewhat.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks pretty alright in the wake of the front. You’re coming to the wrong place if you want chilly autumn weather in early October, and days should be in the upper 80s, with lower humidity. If that’s too hot for you, mornings and evenings should be rather pleasant, with somewhat drier air and lows in the low- to mid-60s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with rain chances near nil.

Columbus Day

If you’re off from school or work on Monday, it should basically be a continuation of Sunday’s weather, which is to say sunny and warm, and otherwise nice.

Later next week

Atmospheric moisture levels should be on the rise next week, with the potential infusion of tropical moisture, helping to finally return some decent rain chances to the region by Wednesday or Thursday. It’s too early to have much confidence in totals or accumulations—but I wouldn’t expect miracles. Nevertheless this is literally our first real chance for rainfall in weeks upon weeks, so it’s better than nothing. And in the “more good news” department, it still looks more probable than not that a stronger front pushes into Houston later next week, possibly setting the stage for a pleasantly chilly weekend in the October 15 timeframe. We’ll see.

Good morning. Our overall forecast remains more or less on track, with warming conditions ahead of a weak front this weekend, followed by the potential for a stronger front some time later next week. The good news is that while the next seven days or so do look dry, there is a pretty decent chance of some rainfall returning to the forecast by the middle of next week.

Wednesday

With high pressure more or less in control of our weather, we can expect highs today to reach near 90 degrees, with mostly sunny skies, to go along with light northeasterly winds. Rain chances are virtually zero. Once again, mornings and evenings should be fairly pleasant, with a modicum of drier air still hanging about. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s for most of Houston, with slightly cooler conditions inland. If you find yourself sneezing today, it may be due to the ragweed levels, which are very high.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs reaching about 90 degrees, or a few ticks above, to go along with sunny skies. The air will continue to get a little bit more humid, but nothing like summertime in Houston, so mornings and evenings will still be pretty decent. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees both nights.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak front arrives on Friday night or Saturday morning, but it will be difficult to tell right away. However behind the front more drier air will start to drift in, and this should become noticeable as the humidity drops. Saturday will warm to near 90 degrees, with sunny skies and drier air. Lows will drop into the 60s overnight. Sunday should be sunny and warm, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Rain chances, again, are pretty much nil. Plan any and all outdoor activities with confidence, and a measure of sunscreen.

Next week

The dry air is going to hold on through Monday, so expect another pretty nice day, with highs in the 80s and relatively lower humidity. However temperatures and atmospheric moisture levels will then start to rise, such that by Wednesday I bet we’re back to 90 degrees and a fair amount of humidity. What happens after that is still very much up for debate, but the most likely scenario is some combination of healthy rain chances—which my goodness, we certainly need—followed by hopefully a more robust front. That is far from locked into stone, but there’s a decent chance that overnight lows drop into the 50s next weekend.

Tropics

Yes, the Texas hurricane season is over. So you can stop reading at this point, if you like. However the overall tropics remain active. In the far Atlantic, Tropical Depression 12 has formed, but it is going to be a weak, short-lived storm everyone can safely ignore. A bit closer to home, another tropical system is likely to become a storm or hurricane as it crosses the southern Caribbean Sea. Eventually it is likely to move into Central America, where it could pose a distinct flooding and wind threat by Sunday or Monday.