Eric Berger

It’s cold, wet, and windy outside today, and conditions aren’t going to improve as skies darken tonight. So let’s jump into the forecast for our region.

As of 3 pm CT, temperatures in the metro area have remained above freezing in Harris and surrounding counties. But they are falling, and for places like Katy and The Woodlands the mercury could reach freezing by around sunset. As roads will remain above freezing for a little while, even if these areas start to see some freezing rain, I think conditions should be generally fine for the evening commute as long as you’re not driving further north than Conroe, northwest of Hockley, or west of Katy. Beyond those locations there may start to be some ice accumulations. You can keep up with highway conditions at DriveTexas.

As for tonight, a light band of precipitation should move through the region from northwest of Houston to the coast between sunset and midnight. This may turn over to freezing rain at some locations where temperatures reach freezing. My sense right now is that the precipitation will be light enough, and the roads warm enough, that the primary concern will be patchy ice on bridges, ramps, and elevated roadways. We should have a much better sense of this threat later this evening, and Matt will have an update by or before 9 pm. The good news is that, after this point, the precipitation is probably over for areas inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. So by late this evening we should have a sense of whether ice is going to pose problems for that portion of the Houston metro area tonight and into Friday morning.

Coastal areas

That leaves us with coastal areas. Temperatures should be warmer during the initial rain band, moving through before midnight. So we don’t think there’s much potential for icing then. However forecast models are showing the potential for the redevelopment of some light precipitation by around sunrise on Friday morning in the coastal tier of counties—Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers. Frankly I don’t have great confidence in whether these showers will develop onshore or offshore; nor if they are over land whether the atmosphere will be cold enough to produce freezing rain. For now, I would say the chance of roadway impacts is considerably less than 50 percent on Friday morning, and probably less than 10 percent, but as of now it is not zero. Hopefully we’ll get a little better handle on this by the time Matt posts later this evening.

As for temperatures, they still look cold but manageable tonight, with lows likely dropping to around 25 degrees west and north of metro Houston, into the upper 20s to 30 degrees in the city, and to around freezing right along the coast. The state’s electricity grid seems to be holding up fairly well, too, but the acid test will come overnight and into Friday morning.

More later this evening.

Good morning. The cold front has pushed off the coast, and temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s for most of the region. Our primary concern remains the potential for rainfall to turn into wintry precipitation this evening, and during the overnight hours. Secondarily, we are worried about cold temperatures on Thursday night falling below freezing, with wind chills in the low teens. Please protect your pets, and check on neighbors.

Thursday

Today will be cold, wet, and windy, with light to moderate precipitation winding down through the morning hours. Expect high temperatures to remain at about 40 degrees or slightly higher this afternoon, with northerly winds gusting to 25 or 30 mph. Rain remains possible this afternoon, although showers should be very light. There are two main forecast questions that we’re struggling with, and they’re both important to determine impacts from later today into Friday morning. First of all, how quickly will a freezing line advance from northwest of the Houston metro area down toward the coast? And secondarily, when will the precipitation end altogether?

Most likely, the freezing line will reach western parts of the metro area, including Katy; and northern parts, including The Woodlands; sometime this afternoon or shortly after sunset. This means that travel through Houston should be fine today and likely through the evening commute unless you’re going north of Conroe or to places northwest, beyond Hempstead. For more inland parts of the state, including Austin and Dallas, there are fairly serious icing problems today. You can check highway ice conditions at the Texas Department of Transportation’s Drive Texas website.

As the freezing line moves in, it looks as though very light precipitation may still be falling this afternoon, evening, and overnight. Our primary concern is that this will leave a thin glaze of ice on elevated roads and bridges into Friday morning. Within the Houston metro area, my sense right now is that essential travel will still be possible if you go slow and use caution. However, it does not take too much freezing rain to make a mess of things. The latest models have trended a bit drier in terms of overnight precipitation, which gives me some hope that ice accumulation is not going to be a significant problem in Harris County and most of the immediate area surrounding Houston. But again we’re walking a pretty fine line here. Matt and I will update the site a couple of more times today to bring you the latest data we have on this.

It looks like overnight temperatures will drop into the mid- to upper-20s for much of the Houston area, with the coast remaining near or just above freezing. Combined with winds, this will make for extremely cold conditions out of doors, but we don’t think it will cause widespread issues with pipes. So far the state’s power grid is holding up well, with electricity capacity far exceeding demand. We think that will continue to be the case tonight and into Friday, but can offer no guarantees.

Friday

So what can we expect roadways to look like Friday morning? This will depend on precipitation overnight, and right now our expectation is that there may be a light glaze on elevated roads and bridges. There is a chance for more significant ice accumulations, but as I look at the data right now that seems unlikely. Temperatures should rise above freezing during the mid- to late-morning hours, after which the threat of any ice on the roads will quickly abate. A winter weather advisory from the National Weather Service is in effect through noon Friday. High temperatures on Friday won’t go far—perhaps only to 40 or 42 degrees—but they’ll go far enough. With partly cloudy skies we can expect another cold night, with a light freeze possible in Houston.

Saturday

The first day of the weekend will be sunny and cold, with highs in the upper 40s. Winds should finally die down some, but this in turn will yield ideal conditions for cooling overnight, so a light freeze will again be possible for much of the metro area.

Sunday

Sunny with highs in the mid-50s. Lows Sunday night should finally remain above freezing for all but some areas in Montgomery County and points north.

Next week

For the most part we should see sunny weather next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Rain chances are low for the most part. So cold, but not extremely cold.

Good afternoon. As we get closer to the arrival of a robust cold front tonight, we’re getting better data about its impacts. It now seems possible that light precipitation on Thursday or Thursday evening could transition to freezing rain in parts of the metro area as temperatures fall to freezing. We still believe this will most likely have relatively minor impacts on the region, but cannot say that with full confidence right now.

The front will arrive in western and northwestern parts of the metro area this evening, including locations such as Katy and Tomball, between 9 and 11 pm. The front will reach downtown around midnight, and the coast around 2 to 4 am. The most noticeable changes with the front will be a wind shift and rapidly dropping temperatures. While intermittent, moderate rain showers will be possible after the front, the heaviest rains should end by Thursday morning-ish.

What we’ll be watching for on Thursday is the progression of a freezing line from northwest to southeast; from College Station through Houston, and potentially all the way to the coast. The latest modeling suggests this freezing line will reach College Station by mid- to late-morning on Thursday, and areas such as Katy and The Woodlands during the afternoon or early evening hours. At this point, while the heaviest rain showers will have ended, a light band of precipitation is expected to sag through our region Thursday evening and overnight. As this rain moves through it may transition to freezing rain on Thursday night all the way down to the Highway 59/Interstate 69 corridor, if not a little further.

What does all this mean? Travel in the College Station and Huntsville region could become hazardous later on Thursday morning, with some minor ice accumulations on roadways. In the metro area of Houston, travel during the daytime and early evening should be fine. But some slight ice accumulations are possible later Thursday evening and during the overnight hours. Because roads will still carry some latent heat, the biggest threat for any ice accumulations in Houston will be on elevated bridges and overpasses. Even this ice threat should dissipate as local temperatures rise above freezing by around 9 am on Friday morning.

It still looks like air temperatures will not fall all that far below freezing in the Houston area on Thursday night. Please understand that this is not going to come close to the deep freeze Houston experienced in February 2021, so please do not be overly concerned about that. There is also some reason to believe that the state’s power grid will be able to withstand this freeze, but obviously time will tell.

As this is a fairly dynamic event, things may change, and when they do we’ll report what we know, when we know it.

A message from Reliant

With the winter weather expected this week, Reliant wants to help make sure Texans are prepared. We’re glad to be a longtime supporter of Space City Weather and its mission to keep us informed in advance of weather events headed our way.

Below are tips that can make a big impact when temperatures dip below freezing:

• Charge your devices. Make sure your cell phone, medical equipment, tablets and laptop are fully charged ahead of time.
• Have a backup. Additional power sources can keep your home powered in case of an outage.  Keep in mind winter weather can result in local outages caused by things like ice on wires or fallen tree limbs. These local outages are not related to the amount of available electricity generated and put on the grid. Texans should contact their transmission and distribution utility in the event they experience a localized outage.
• Download the Reliant Winter Prep checklist. Learn more ways to get your home and vehicle ready for dropping temperatures.

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Good morning. The overall forecast remains on track for Houston, with a strong Arctic front moving into the region tonight and setting up several days of colder weather. I still don’t things will get too extreme for Houston—much of the city probably will not see a hard freeze—but this winter storm will nonetheless have widespread effects across the state. Matt covered a lot of these issues in a post on Tuesday night.

Also, I’m not sure exactly what it means when the groundhog sees not his shadow, but rather the shadow of death, but I guess we’re about to find out. This is because Milltown Mel, a weather-predicting groundhog in New Jersey, died on the day before Groundhog Day. So, yeah.

Wednesday

Fog is draped over much of the region this morning as air temperatures, generally in the mid-50s, have fallen to the dewpoint temperature. This fog will burn off as air temperatures rise today, and we’re probably going all the way into the low 70s even though skies will be mostly cloudy. Winds will be light, from the east, at 5 to 10 mph. Some scattered, light showers will be possible this morning, and into the afternoon hours, but I think the better rain chances will come over night along with the front. Said front will arrive in northwest parts of the region by around 8 to 10 pm on Wednesday night, should reach downtown around midnight, and push down to the coast around 2 to 4 am.

Thursday

It will be a different world when you wake up Thursday morning, with air temperatures around 40 degrees, gusty northerly winds, and possibly some ongoing precipitation. The bottom line: It will be cold, windy, and possibly wet. High temperatures should hold at about 40 degrees during the daytime, and the possibility for some very light precipitation will linger throughout the daytime. What does this mean for our region? Well, it’s possible that areas northwest will see a mix of sleet and ice pellets during the daytime. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison, Washington, and Grimes counties through 6 pm. Closer to Houston, we may see some sleet or freezing in the air, but surface temperatures should be warm enough to preclude any impacts on the ground. At this time we don’t anticipate significant impacts in the city and surrounding counties.

Another big question remains how cold it will get on Thursday night. It’s looking like clouds and winds of 15 to 20 mph should help keep the extreme cold at bay, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-20s in places like Montgomery County and west Harris County, and temperatures in the upper 20s to freezing in Houston and down to the coast. These temperatures should be warm enough to preclude bursting unexposed pipes.

Friday

This will be a cold, mostly cloudy day. Highs should peak in the upper 30s to 40 degrees, but a northerly wind will make it feel colder. But at least it will be above freezing. With more clouds on Friday night, lows should drop to about their same level as Thursday night, plus or minus a degree or two.

Saturday

Sunshine, finally. Clearing skies should help temperatures rise into the upper 40s to 50 degrees, and we’ll probably all welcome the lack of a stiff northerly wind. Lows Saturday night, under clear skies, should drop to around freezing in central Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks quite nice, with highs in the mid-50s and ample sunshine. Most of the area should avoid a freeze on Sunday night.

Next week

Temperatures will be slow to warm as we head into next week, but highs should reach the low 60s by Wednesday or so, with lows in the 40s. Days should be partly to mostly sunny, with a mostly northerly flow. If you enjoy winter in Texas, be sure and get your fill.