Eric Berger

Houston’s weather on Tuesday was spectacular, and there’s more of it ahead. We’ll continue to see sunny skies and mild winter temperatures until Saturday, when a front blows through. And then, shortly after this, we’ll see more sunshine and fantastic winter weather.

Wednesday

Most of the region is seeing lows in the upper 30s this morning. But with light southerly and westerly winds, and abundant sunshine, we should warm nicely to about 70 degrees this afternoon. Low temperatures overnight should be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night, with much of Houston settling into the low 40s.

Thursday and Friday

The spectacular sunshine show continues, as does a slow warming trend. Both of these days should see highs of around 70 degrees, but overnight lows will creep up into the mid-40s by Friday morning, and perhaps around 50 degrees by Saturday morning. Winds both days should be light out of the south or southwest.

Saturday

There’s finally some agreement among the models in a frontal passage on Saturday around noon, or during the morning hours. For inland locations, then, highs may top out in the 50s, while coastal areas hit 60 degrees before the front arrives. Most likely this will be a dry passage, as the air simply won’t be holding enough moisture to really generate much in the way of rainfall. Winds will be noticeable, from the north, with the front’s passage. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows Saturday night will probably drop into the upper 30s for Houston, with slightly warmer conditions along the coast.

Sunday

This should be a fine, sunny winter day with highs in the mid-50s. Winds should not be too much of a factor. Expect lows on Sunday night to be a degree or two warmer than Saturday night.

Next week

Another week, with more sunshine, is likely. Houston will probably warm back to around 70 degrees on Wednesday before another front brings a decent chance of rain seven or eight days from now.

Houston will continue to see splendid winter weather for awhile, with no major temperature or precipitation concerns. Instead, we’ll see a sustained stretch of sunny days, with moderate days and cool nights. Enjoy!

Tuesday

It’s cold out there this morning, but as light winds shift to come from the south later today, we’ll see high temperatures nudge up to the mid-60s beneath sunny skies. This should also help to moderate low temperatures a bit tonight, probably keeping most of the metro area at 40 degrees, or above.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Overall, a fairly cool and dry air mass should remain in place over South Texas. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s on these days, with light southerly and southwesterly winds. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, although by Friday night they may only drop to around 50 degrees in Houston. Dewpoints will remain comfortably dry. Skies will be sunny, with nary a chance of rain. This is great weather for picnics, field trips, outdoor classrooms, or anything else out of doors.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is coming a little bit better into focus, although there are still some questions about the details. In the big picture, a fairly strong cold front is likely to move through Houston during the daytime, perhaps after noon. So it’s likely that most parts of the region will see a moderately warm morning, and then have things cool off with the frontal passage. Some brief, light rain is possible during Saturday along with the front’s passage, but I think that’s still very much an open question. Winds will probably be breezy on Saturday night, perhaps gusting to around 20 mph, with temperatures dropping to around 40 degrees in Houston. Highs on Sunday should be in the 50s, with mostly sunny skies and a northerly breeze.

Next week

After a chilly start, I think we’ll see a more robust warm up next week with highs returning to the 70s. Widespread rain chances return to the forecast sometime after Monday as well.

Good morning. After a dynamic week of weather, with widespread rain showers Monday, a smidgen of freezing rain on Thursday, and then very cold weather through the weekend, conditions will moderate this week. However, it’s still going to feel winter-like out there, for Houston at least. Normal temperatures for this time of year are highs in the mid-60s, and low in the mid-40s, and that is more or less what we’re going to see.

Monday

Just as temperatures are beginning to warm, we’ll see another shot of cold air today. This will be more of a reinforcing front rather than a blustery affair, so while winds will shift to come from the north I’m not anticipating anything too gusty. High temperatures should reach about 60 degrees this afternoon, especially after clouds clear out this this morning and leave us with sunny skies. Monday night should be the coldest of the week, with lows dropping into the 30s for the metro area.

Tuesday

A pleasant, sunny day with light winds. Highs will generally be in the low 60s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

The upper air pattern will support continued calm weather at the surface for Houston. High temperatures on each of these days should slot somewhere in the upper 60s, with mostly sunny skies, and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s inland, to low 40s in the city, and upper 40s along the coast. This will be a splendid stretch of winter-like weather.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend is somewhat in question due to the uncertain timing of the next cold front. The most likely scenario is that the front comes through some time between Saturday evening and Sunday morning, and for now rain chances do not look terribly high with its passage. But timing and rainfall are both subject to change. Anyway, for now, I’d anticipate partly sunny skies on Saturday with highs of around 70 degrees. Sunday could be quite a bit colder, but for now I’ll go with sunny skies and highs of around 60 degrees. A light freeze may be possible on Monday morning, but I’m not sure this front will go that cold. We’ll see!

It’s cold, wet, and windy outside today, and conditions aren’t going to improve as skies darken tonight. So let’s jump into the forecast for our region.

As of 3 pm CT, temperatures in the metro area have remained above freezing in Harris and surrounding counties. But they are falling, and for places like Katy and The Woodlands the mercury could reach freezing by around sunset. As roads will remain above freezing for a little while, even if these areas start to see some freezing rain, I think conditions should be generally fine for the evening commute as long as you’re not driving further north than Conroe, northwest of Hockley, or west of Katy. Beyond those locations there may start to be some ice accumulations. You can keep up with highway conditions at DriveTexas.

As for tonight, a light band of precipitation should move through the region from northwest of Houston to the coast between sunset and midnight. This may turn over to freezing rain at some locations where temperatures reach freezing. My sense right now is that the precipitation will be light enough, and the roads warm enough, that the primary concern will be patchy ice on bridges, ramps, and elevated roadways. We should have a much better sense of this threat later this evening, and Matt will have an update by or before 9 pm. The good news is that, after this point, the precipitation is probably over for areas inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. So by late this evening we should have a sense of whether ice is going to pose problems for that portion of the Houston metro area tonight and into Friday morning.

Coastal areas

That leaves us with coastal areas. Temperatures should be warmer during the initial rain band, moving through before midnight. So we don’t think there’s much potential for icing then. However forecast models are showing the potential for the redevelopment of some light precipitation by around sunrise on Friday morning in the coastal tier of counties—Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers. Frankly I don’t have great confidence in whether these showers will develop onshore or offshore; nor if they are over land whether the atmosphere will be cold enough to produce freezing rain. For now, I would say the chance of roadway impacts is considerably less than 50 percent on Friday morning, and probably less than 10 percent, but as of now it is not zero. Hopefully we’ll get a little better handle on this by the time Matt posts later this evening.

As for temperatures, they still look cold but manageable tonight, with lows likely dropping to around 25 degrees west and north of metro Houston, into the upper 20s to 30 degrees in the city, and to around freezing right along the coast. The state’s electricity grid seems to be holding up fairly well, too, but the acid test will come overnight and into Friday morning.

More later this evening.