Eric Berger

Good morning. The storm system that has hit our region during the last two days is finally moving eastward. The last line of its showers is moving fairly quickly from west to east across the area. Areas near Interstate 45 are still being hammered this morning with rainfall, but the heaviest of these storms will be gone by around 7:30 or 8 am, and the rains should be over entirely by 10 or 11 am. Skies will clear out this afternoon. We are ending the Stage 1 flood alert accordingly.

As anticipated, much of the area has received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall since Thanksgiving morning, with a few isolated areas receiving as much as 7 inches of rainfall. I’ll post more about this on Monday, but these rains have definitely put a nice dent in the drought that formed this summer and fall across parts of the Houston metro area. And so while they may have made for a soggy holiday, our trees will be thankful for these rains.

The good news is that while the last two days were wet, the second half of the long weekend will be sunny and fine. Look for clearing skies this afternoon and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be noticeable, out of the west, at times gusting up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with colder conditions inland. Winds will slacken some on Sunday, with more sunny skies, and highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. In short, this should be a fine fall weekend once rains clear this morning.

We’ll see a sharp warm-up by Tuesday, with highs climbing to about 80 degrees, before the next cold frotn arrives to cool things off for a few days. I hope everyone has a pleasant end to the holiday weekend.

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Good afternoon. If you’re tired of gray skies and wet streets, I’ve got bad news and good news for you.

We’ll start with the bad news: It’s not over.

Now for the good news: It’s almost over.

The greater Houston region faces one more wet and possibly stormy night before we see some sunny and sedate weather.

Friday afternoon

After a lull in activity for most of today, as of 3:30 pm CT, storms are forming to the southwest of the Houston metro area and moving toward the city. These showers should be less intense and more scattered that what’s coming later tonight, after midnight, but a few areas may still see some briefly intense rainfall this evening. So if you’re out and about, please be mindful of conditions nearby. Temperatures should hold steady in the low 60s.

Late Friday night/early Saturday morning

Overnight a slow-moving low pressure system should combine with ample atmospheric moisture to produce heavier rainfall. Sometime after midnight, therefore, we expect strong, widepsread storms to move into the Houston region and generate rainfall rates as high as 2 inches per hour. These rates are intense enough to quickly back up roads, and therefore we expect that some areas will see street flooding late tonight into Saturday morning. While we cannot entirely rule out a touch of severe weather, such as damaging winds for the most part these should be be heavy showers with some lightning mixed in.

At some point these showers will clear out from west to east on Saturday morning. Most model guidance suggests the heavy rain should depart by 7 to 9 am, with showers ending entirely by around noon. Between now and then I expect most areas to receive 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall, with the potential for higher totals in isolated areas. The further north of Interstate 10 you live, the more likely you are to see lower accumulations.

Saturday afternoon and beyond

Skies should clear pretty quickly as the rain showers move out, so I expect partly to mostly sunny skies by Saturday afternoon, with highs of around 70 degrees. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 50 in Houston, which means colder conditions further inland. Sunday looks splendid, with sunny skies and highs of around 70 degrees. Monday will be similar before we start to warm up ahead of a mid-week cool front.

Unless the forecast takes a turn for the worse, this will be our last update until Saturday morning, at which time we expect to drop the Stage 1 flood alert.

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Good morning. I hope this message finds you happy and healthy on this Thanksgiving morning. I have much to be thankful for in both my personal and professional life. One of the things I am most happy about is the trust placed by readers in the work Matt and I do. So thank you for spending a few moments with Space City Weather on this holiday morning.

This morning’s forecast will focus the forthcoming rain event that will bring two days of showers and thunderstorms to the Houston region. While most of this rainfall will be manageable—most locations should receive 1 to 4 inches—we’re concerned about more isolated areas that could receive up to 6 inches of precipitation between now and Saturday morning. This may cause street flooding, and therefore we have called for a Stage 1 flood alert.

Thursday

As anticipated, we are seeing the development of storms near the coast this morning, in the Freeport and Lake Jackson area. These storms are associated with a warm front moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, and will become more widespread leater this morning. This front should progress toward Interstate 10 by around noon, and it is likely that the strongest storms this afternoon will lie to its north. Therefore, today, we are most concerned about rain accumulations along and north of Interstate 10. Highs today will reach about 70 degrees, give or take, with cloudy skies and muggy air. I expect that showers will back off this evening and during the overnight hours, while the atmosphere recharges.

Friday

Conditions will continue to favor widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cut-off low pressure system lifts moist air at the surface. At this time our higher resolution models are suggesting that storms on Friday will peak during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Over the last couple of days the overall movement of this low pressure system has slowed down, so it’s entirely possible the heavy rainfall threat will extend into Saturday morning. That’s something we’ll be watching for. Highs on Friday will be in the mid-60s.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re still expecting things to clear out significantly this weekend, but there’s now the potential for some lingering storms on Saturday morning. Skies should become partly sunny during the afternoon, with highs in the mid-60s. We’ll be sunny, with a high near 70 on Sunday. Expect this warming trend to continue until Tuesday or Wednesday, when the next front arrives.

As we continue to track this dynamic rainfall situation, Matt will have an update for you this afternoon.

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The outlook for heavy rainfall on Thanksgiving, overnight, and into Friday continues to worsen for the greater Houston area. As we get closer to the onset of rains on Thursday, high resolution models are indicating that the interaction of a warm front—you’ll definitely notice the warmer and muggier air tomorrow morning—and a cut-off low pressure system will produce a lot of rain. To account for this, we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area, which means we are likely to see some street flooding. For more information about our flood scale, see here. The alert is in effect from Thursday morning through Friday evening.

Timing

So what can you expect tomorrow? The pre-dawn hours should be fairly quiet, but by around sunrise or shortly thereafter we can probably expect storms to form to the southwest of Houston, near Matagorda Bay, and move inland toward Houston. By the mid-morning hours, I expect to see fairly widespread, heavy rainfall across much of the region, with the possible expection of areas far inland, such as Conroe or College Station. The potential for intermittent, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours.

At some point on Thursday evening the atmosphere may be fairly well “wrung out,” and need time to recover. So while things may quiet down during the overnight hours, we expect a recharged atmosphere to produce more widespread rainfall on Friday. I don’t think these showers will be as heavy as those on Thanksgiving Day, but we’ll have to see about that. Drier air should finally move into the region on Saturday morning, ending the threat of rainfall and leading to a pleasant, sunny weekend.

Accumulations

I don’t feel particularly confident in predicting how much rain will fall, but given the overall setup and fairly moist atmosphere, I think areas south of Interstate 10 could be looking at 2 to 6 inches of rainfall over both days, with 1 to 5 inches for areas further inland. It is possible that some areas will see more. This is enough to flood some streets, at least for a short time.

I hate to say it, but this really is a fluid situation, and we can probably expect additional forecast changes. For now, we want you to be weather aware tomorrow when you’re out and about celebrating the holiday. Be sure to check the radar before hitting the road, and of course do not go outside into storms where there is lightning.

We’ll have our next update no later than early Thursday morning, and will provide coverage throughout the holiday as needed.

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