Eric Berger

Good morning. A tropical low pressure system is nearing the South Texas coast this morning, and should begin to move inland today. As a result, beginning tonight and on Friday, much of the Houston metro area is likely to see moderate to heavy rainfall. But the biggest threat should come in our coastal counties: Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Orange. Therefore, for these areas we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our Flood Scale.

Broadly speaking, we expect 4 to 6 inches of rain for coastal areas, which is a lot for two days, but since these areas have been so dry the totals should be manageable. However, some model data indicates the potential for coastal areas to see larger bullseyes of rain with this tropical air mass, and we are monitoring this closely. Suffice it to say that we may need to increase the flood alert later today to Stage 2, but do not feel confident in doing so now. (These bullseyes could also very well miss offshore). We plan to update you later today as we know more.

The remainder of the metro area should see more moderate totals of rainfall over the next two days, generally 1 to 4 inches, with amounts decreasing the further inland you go. We do not expect to need to issue any flood alerts for these areas, but again we are watching closely.

Thursday

We have seen some coastal showers develop prior to sunrise and push inland, but this activity will probably wane later this morning. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but none of these are likely to be too organized. Therefore we think today should be business-as-normal for most people, and most activities. Look for highs in the upper 80s with mostly cloudy skies. The threat of heavy rain from the tropical system probably will not arrive until at least midnight along the coast, and a bit later than than that for inland areas.

Friday

Right now we think Friday will yield the most hazardous weather in terms of heavy rainfall. The key question, as we’ve been saying for a couple of days, is where the tropical low ultimately moves and brings its excessive moisture. We could find ourselves in a situation where the heaviest rain remains largely offshore, or we could find ourselves in a situation where Galveston Island receives 10 inches. What we can say for certain is that there is the potential for very heavy rainfall on Friday for coastal counties, with lesser chances as one moves into Harris County, and lesser chances still further inland. The potential for heavy rainfall should exit coastal areas on Friday afternoon or evening, and move north as the system is also moving to the north or northwest.

Saturday

The potential for widespread, moderate to heavy rainfall will linger on Friday night into Saturday morning as the tropical low starts to move away from the area, but we should start to see skies clearing out during the afternoon hours, allowing highs to reach about 90 degrees.

Sunday and Monday

The remainder of the weekend should see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. There is a slight chance of rain both days, but I would only put it at 10 to 15 percent. Therefore, there should be no weather concerns for the Fourth of July holiday.

Next week

Houston’s weather will fall back into a hot and sunny pattern for most of the rest of next week, with highs probably in the mid-90s, or thereabouts. It will be a little warm for early July, but not excessively so.

We will post an update on the potential for flooding on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Houston’s warmest June ever is going to end much cooler than it started. With an increase in cloud cover, and at least decent daily rain chances, the next four days will generally see high temperatures of only around 90 degrees, give or take. The bigger question remains rain totals as a low pressure system approaches the Texas coast. Between now and Saturday I would expect 0.5 to 2 inches of rain for inland areas north of Interstate 10, and 1 to 4 inches for areas closer to the coast. But there will be wide variability across the region, and a lot still depends upon the movement of the tropical low over the next few days.

Wednesday

The aforementioned low pressure system is a couple of hundred miles due south of the Texas-Louisiana border this morning, over the Gulf of Mexico. And that’s where the bulk of the rainfall is, offshore. Still, we’ve seen coastal areas getting clipped by rains moving inland early this morning, and that could happen again this afternoon and early evening. If you live inland, north of Interstate 10, rain chances are less today, but not zero. Highs will generally reach the low 90s, beneath mostly cloudy skies. But if some sunshine pokes through this afternoon, a few locations could reach the mid-90s. Light winds (except in thunderstorms) will shift from the northeast to southeast later today, and rain chances may slacken over night.

Thursday and Friday

These two days still look like the best time for moderate to heavy rainfall to fall along upper Texas coast. This is when the tropical low pressure system—which has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression, the National Hurricane says—should come onshore somewhere along the middle Texas coast. Again, the most favored regions for heavy rainfall will be coastal counties, including Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston. However, the best chance for inland rainfall will also come on these days, as the tropical system marches inland. Our rainfall totals will ultimately depend on whether the system makes a northward jog, in which case some coastal areas could see 5+ inches. At this point, we just can’t say for sure.

The increased cloud cover and widespread rain should help to keep temperatures in check, with daily highs perhaps not making it beyond the upper-80s for a lot of locations. Enjoy the reprieve from the heat, which we certainly earned after a torrid June.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

For many this will be a holiday weekend. It is looking like we’ll see a carryover of rain chances into Saturday morning, but at some point they’re going to end and our skies will likely turn sunnier. Highs on Saturday will be around 90 degrees. Sunday looks partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 90s, and the Fourth of July should see partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s. We can’t entirely rule out a fleeting shower on these days, but I’d put the chance down in the 10 percent range. Note that while Harris County Commissioners did vote to enact a burn ban on Tuesday, fireworks will remain legal in the unincorporated part of the county.

Next week

Most of next week will likely see highs in the mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies, and precious few rain chances. So be sure and top off over the next several days, if you can.

Good morning. Houston remains on track for a decidedly cooler and wetter week, with the major question facing us being how much rain the region will receive. For now, I’d expect most locations in the Houston metro area to pick up 1 to 3 inches between now and Friday. The higher end totals, generally, will come near the coast, with lower-end accumulations for inland areas north of Interstate 10.

But there remains a lot of uncertainty as a broad area of low pressure moves westward across the Gulf of Mexico, toward the Texas coast. Given this, the region could see quite a bit more rain, or rain totals could underperform. If you’re wondering about the holiday weekend, sunnier and hotter weather should return by Saturday or Sunday, ahead of the Fourth of July.

Tuesday

The cool front that moved through on Monday and generated showers and thunderstorms for parts of the metro area has moved offshore, and that’s where the bulk of the rain will fall today. I expect inland rain chances of only about 10 to 20 percent, with slightly higher chances right along the coast. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and light northeast winds.

Wednesday

Rain chances start to tick upwards on Tuesday night into Wednesday as the aforementioned low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico starts to slowly approach the Texas coast. Still, I’d only peg rain chances at about 50 percent for the coast, with diminishing chances for inland areas on Wednesday. Again, the bulk of the rainfall should remain offshore. Look for high temperatures in the low 90s and mostly cloudy skies, with light northeasterly winds turning easterly.

Thursday and Friday

This is when the potential for heavy rainfall will peak. The key questions are where the tropical low pressure system goes, and whether it gets organized into a tropical depression. The low itself is likely bound for the south or central Texas coast. If it organizes sufficiently, this would tend to bring the heaviest bands of rainfall closer to the center of the storm, and south of Houston. If the low remains disorganized, the potential for heavy rainfall would cover much of the Texas coast, including the Houston metro region. As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. Regardless of what happens, we do expect to see at least some precipitation as the upper Texas coast will fall on the eastern, or “wetter” side of the storm. The question, again, is how much.

High temperatures will depend on the extent of rain, so look for anything from the mid-80s to 90 degrees on both days, with mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday and Sunday

For now it appears as though the low and its attendant rainfall will be largely gone by the weekend, setting up a pair of partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-90s. I’m not ready to rule out rainfall, given the uncertainty over the next couple of days, but chances are probably in the 20 percent range, especially after Saturday morning.

Next week

By the Fourth of July, on Monday, I am reasonably confident that we’ll see mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. This is fairly typical weather for early July. Such conditions should prevail for most of next week.

Tropics

Beyond the Gulf of Mexico there is a lot going on in the tropics for late June, but none of this is a direct threat to Texas. Matt will have a full rundown for you in a tropics update later today.

Good morning. Houston has been exceptionally hot and dry—in terms of rainfall, not humidity—for the last four weeks. Our weather has largely been dominated by more or less intense ridges of high pressure. This week there will be two features driving up our rain chances, and bringing temperatures more in line with the “early summer” period.

The first feature is a cool front that will move down to the coast and stall today. Then, by the middle of this week a low pressure system over the gulf of Mexico should approach the Texas coast. This will bring a fair amount of rain to coastal areas of the state, but it remains to be seen whether the bulk of that rainfall drops over the Houston metro area, or further down the coast.

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Monday

For a change, skies today will be partly to mostly cloudy, and this should hold high temperatures to the mid-90s. The front will bring scattered showers to areas primarily north of Interstate 10 later this morning and during the afternoon, with the focus shifting to the coast this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms, generally, will be more likely near the coast. I think about 40 percent of the area will see rainfall, with a few isolated areas picking up an inch or so, and most of the rest a tenth of an inch or two. Winds will be out of the west this morning, turning to the northeast after the front’s passage. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Tuesday

Skies will be partly sunny on Tuesday, with highs likely only reaching about 90 degrees. Rain chances look pretty low for inland areas, but for locations south of Interstate 10 I think there’s perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain. Light northeast winds will shift to come from the east.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

As noted in the introduction, our weather during the second half of the work week will largely be determined by the movement and strength of a low-pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. There remains only a small chance this system, presently south of Louisiana, will develop into a tropical depression, so the primary weather we’re going to see from it is rainfall. At this time Matagorda Bay seems a more likely bet for the heaviest rainfall than Galveston Bay, but this system will be bringing a lot of atmospheric moisture to the coast, so we will see.

What we can say is that Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all have the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall, and that chances of this are significantly higher if you live near south of Interstate 10, and even better the closer you live to the coast. I’d guess areas south of Interstate 10 end up seeing 1 to 4 inches of rain this week, and areas north 0.5 to 2 inches. However, this is a dynamic situation and forecasts will change. Highs will range from the mid-80s to 90 degrees depending on cloud cover and rainfall.

Saturday, Sunday, and July 4th

The weekend looks warmer and sunnier, with highs perhaps in the low- to-mid-90s and diminishing rain chances. At this point the Fourth of July holiday looks to be hot and mostly sunny, but there are no guarantees this far out.

Tropics

Beyond the weak Gulf system, there are two other tropical waves worth watching. The area in red, Invest 94L, looks to be bound for Central America. The other wave’s track is less certain, but at this time I don’t think it’s a threat to the Gulf of Mexico either. For now, therefore, our focus will remain closer to home.