Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston remains just on the edge of summer weather, but we’re still not quite there. For much of the area, low temperatures are still dropping to around 70 degrees at night. And while daytime highs are reaching near 90 degrees, we’ve not reached the point of dog’s breath humidity either. That is coming, for sure.

Since today is the last day of May, I’d say it’s been a nice month. It is certainly possible for us to be seeing days in the mid-90s and sultry humidity in late May. But not this year, and it looks like May will end up with a slightly below normal temperature in 2023. I for one am enjoying this not-quite-summer weather.

Wednesday

Nearly all of the Houston metro area stayed dry on Tuesday, but there were some fairly strong thunderstorms on the periphery, including near Katy and Conroe, and well to the east of the region over Beaumont. So the potential is out there, and the atmospheric pattern will support additional scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated areas picking up 0.5 to 1 inch or more of rain. About 20 percent of the area is likely to see rain. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Winds will be light, but generally from the southeast. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these will be mostly sunny days, with high temperatures around 90 degrees. Rain chances are not entirely zero, but they’re probably not higher than 10 percent each day. Lows drop into the low 70s, generally.

Saturday

I’m reasonably confident that the first half of the weekend is going to see a continuation of our mostly sunny, and warmish pattern. Expect highs of around 90 degrees. Rain chances, again, will be fairly low, so provided you’ve got protection from the Sun any outdoor activities look good to go.

Sunday and Monday

I have slightly less confidence heading into the back end of the weekend. High pressure is going to back off somewhat, and this will open the atmosphere up to better rain chances. However, there is very little consistency or agreement in the forecast models, so the forecast is pretty fuzzy. Broadly speaking, I’d peg rain chances at 30 to 50 percent each day, with accumulations of perhaps 0.25 to 1 inch of rain. Skies should be a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs again around 90 degrees.

Next week

By Tuesday or so, I expect high pressure to start building again over the region. This should shut down the potential for rainfall, and may nudge highs upward, into the low- to mid-80s. But I’m not ready to lock that forecast in yet.

Houston’s weather this week, aside from scattered thunderstorm chances today, should be pretty boring. But boring in the summer is not necessarily bad! This sure beats early season heat or, as we will be reminded this week with the official season start on June 1, hurricanes. By the way, we’ve got some news coming about the Atlantic hurricane season coming that you will want to check out on Thursday.

Tuesday

The region saw scattered showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day, with some fairly isolated regions experiencing heavy rainfall. The pattern will be similar today, with the best chances for rainfall running from the mid-morning to mid-afternoon hours. Much of the area will not see rain, but a few isolated areas may quickly pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rain under slow-moving storms. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly sunny with a high temperature of about 90 degrees. Winds will be variable, and light. Low temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

A similar day to Tuesday, albeit with less atmospheric moisture to work with. This should knock back rain chances to about 20 percent during the afternoon hours. Skies should be mostly sunny for the most part, with highs of around 90 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure builds over the region it will squeeze rain chances down to around 10 percent each day. The days will be remarkable similar, otherwise, with mostly sunny skies and highs of around 90 degrees. The air will remain, for early June at least, somewhat dry. Afternoon dewpoints in the mid-60s will not exactly feel spring-like, but they won’t be sultry and summer-like, either. That, no doubt, is coming soon.

Saturday and Sunday

As the high pressure ridge backs off this weekend, we should see rain chances increase modestly. But at this point I don’t have much confidence in whether that means a daily chance of 20 percent or 40 percent. For the most part, I’d anticipate at least partly if not mostly sunny skies with highs of around 90 degrees.

Next week

I don’t have great confidence in next week’s forecast, I’m afraid. I do think rain chances will increase a bit, starting either Sunday or Monday. There are also some scenarios in which we start to push toward the mid-90s by some point next week, but such a summer heat wave is not locked in stone.

Good morning. If you have outdoor plans this weekend that involve a beach, pool, or sunbathing, you’re in luck. We’re going to see partly to mostly sunny skies, reasonably dry air, and highs right around 90 degrees throughout the weekend. The next few days will also see uncharacteristically low dewpoints of around 60 degrees during the daytime, so Houston won’t feel quite as humid as normal. Enjoy this while it lasts.

Thursday

Today will be sunny and warm, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the northeast, at 5 to 10 mph. There is perhaps a 5 percent chance of rain showers along the coast. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Let’s hope you liked Thursday, because Friday is the same—only rain chances are 0 percent instead of 5 percent. Dewpoints look to be at their lowest today, perhaps in the upper 50s during the afternoon hours.

Saturday

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with highs around 90 degrees. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Sunday

Should be more of the same.

Monday

As high pressure begins to weaken its grip on the area, the overall flow will turn more southerly and Houston’s atmosphere will start to moisten. This may return more clouds to the area, humidity levels will start to rise, and there should be perhaps a 20 percent chance of showers during the afternoon.

Next week

Most of next week probably will see highs of around 90 degrees, partly sunny skies, and a modest chance of afternoon showers. Oh, and humidity is coming back as dewpoints rise. Summer is knocking on the door, y’all. Matt will have you covered tomorrow, so let me wish you a safe and happy and fun Memorial Day Weekend.

Good morning. A complex of showers and thunderstorms to the west of Houston associated with a large convective system appears to be fading this morning, and I don’t think it will impinge too much on our region today. That’s not to say rain chances will be zero. Overall, however, we should continue to see warm, mostly sunny and not-too muggy weather for the next several days.

Wednesday

Today will bring partly sunny skies, with highs around 90 degrees, and light northeasterly winds. This morning areas to the west of Houston, including Katy and Cypress, will see a chance of thunderstorms and briefly strong winds due to the storm complex over central Texas. These storms should wind down this morning. Later this afternoon, with daytime heating, I expect some additional shower and thunderstorm development through the early evening hours, although this should be fairly scattered across Houston. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

Skies should be mostly sunny on Thursday, with high temperatures again bouncing around 90 degrees. With daytime heating there will be about a 10 percent chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.

Friday

Look for mostly sunny skies and highs around 90 degrees.

Memorial Day Weekend

Saturday and Sunday, at this point, look like carbon copies of one another. With high pressure in place we can expect a pair of partly to mostly sunny days with high temperatures around 90 degrees, and overnight lows around 70 degrees, plus or minus depending on how far inland you are. With dewpoints in the 60s, the air will feel less sticky than it normally does during the summer, so that will be nice.

Memorial Day should bring more of the same, albeit with a few more clouds and a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon with daytime heating.

Next week

As the onshore flow reestablishes itself, we’ll see increasing humidity, but daytime temperatures should remain in the upper 80s to 90 degree range. A moistening atmosphere will make for somewhat better rain chances, so for now I’ll ballpark in a daily 30 percent chance during the afternoon hours.