Eric Berger

Good morning. The main event for our near-term weather is the arrival of a cold front late tonight that will bring a line of storms through our area early Wednesday, likely reaching the metro area shortly before sunrise. This front will usher in some briefly drier air, with Thursday looking especially spring-like with morning lows possibly in the low 60s. Memorial Day weekend looks warm and sunny.

Tuesday

Yesterday I talked about the potential for an upper-level system to bring some showers and thunderstorms into the metro area on Tuesday morning, but noted that all of the ingredients might not come together for the showers to hit Houston. Well, they haven’t, and the bulk of the rain will remain offshore today. Accordingly rain chances are only about 50 percent today, and any scattered showers that move through should do so fairly quickly from southwest to northeast. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies today with highs in the mid-80s. Winds may gust as high as 20 mph out of the south.

Tuesday night and Wednesday

I’m more confident in the arrival of a cold front tonight, likely reaching the College Station and Conroe areas around midnight, pushing into central Houston around 2 to 4 am CT, and off the coast by sunrise. A line of storms will accompany the front, bringing thunderstorms, straight-line winds, hail, and even the potential for a tornado or two.

I expect that some of these thunderstorms will bring heavy rainfall, and overall accumulations will probably range from 1 to 3 inches for most of the metro region, with higher isolated totals. While the bulk of the rainfall should have passed by around sunrise on Wednesday, some light to moderate showers may linger into the late morning hours. High temperatures on Wednesday should top out in the upper 70s as skies probably won’t start to clear until Wednesday evening.

Thursday

This is going to be a pretty amazing spring-like day in Houston, especially for late May. Lows will start out at 60 to 65 degrees, and despite sunny skies we’re going to see temperatures likely top out in the mid-80s. With dewpoints in the low 60s, the air will also feel reasonably dry. The evening should be pretty great as well, with some drier air holding on and temperatures dropping. Lows on Thursday night should eventually fall into the mid-60s.

Friday

This will be a transition day back to more summer-like weather, but there still should be a smidge of drier air, with highs in the upper 80s, sunny skies, and overnight lows dropping to around 70 degrees.

Memorial Day Weekend

The forecast over the weekend will bring three days of sunny skies, highs around 90 degrees, and lows in the 70s. It will be plenty humid outside, but not boiling hot as this holiday weekend can sometimes be. Conditions should be perfect for outdoor activities, although please be sure and protect yourself during prolonged exposure to the sun.

Next week we’ll be monitoring the potential for a tropical disturbance to form in the Bay of Campeche, in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. This may eventually bring some moderate rainfall our way next week, but right now it’s not something to be concerned about at all.

After a summer-like pattern took hold of our region for nearly all of the Month of May, change came early on Sunday morning with the arrival of a front and a good soaking. To give you an idea of how abnormal our weather was in May, consider this statistic from the National Weather Service about Galveston’s heat. Sunday’s low temperature in Galveston was 72 degrees, by far the lowest of the month. Before Sunday, the monthly average low was 78.6 degrees, which smashed the previous highest average for the May 1 to 21 period. Previously, 2003 had the warmest average low temperature, 75.4 degrees during the first three weeks of May. Galveston’s weather records date to 1875, so that’s nearly 150 years of data. This type of warmer weather is consistent with what we would expect to see due to climate change.

Fortunately, the rest of the month should be much more temperate.

Monday

In the wake of Sunday’s front, temperatures today should generally reach the upper 80s beneath mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Rain chances are less than 10 percent, and winds will be moderate, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the low-70s for most locations. In other words, conditions will be pretty darn nice for late May.

Tuesday

There is the potential for heavy rain on Tuesday as an upper-level system moves through, but I’m not certain all of the ingredients are going to come together. We’ll be watching for a line of storms to develop in central Texas late on Monday night, and then move through our area from southwest to northeast. The timing is a bit uncertain, so these storms could reach us by around sunrise or a bit later. If the storms come later, they probably will be stronger, as they would benefit from daytime heating. Otherwise, skies should be mostly cloudy on Tuesday, with highs in the mid-80s. Rain chances will drop off during the evening and overnight hours.

Wednesday

Yet another “cold” front is on track to push through the region on Wednesday. In terms of timing, we’re probably looking at a passage during the afternoon hours through Houston, and again there will be the potential for some heavy rainfall as this system moves through, this time from north to south. Some of these storms could be severe, so most of the Houston area faces a “slight” chance of severe weather, according to NOAA.

Total rainfall amounts through Wednesday should vary widely, with accumulations generally of 1 to 3 inches, with the potential for higher localized amounts. Honest-to-goodness drier air should work its way in behind the front, ending showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Daytime highs should be in the 80s, with lows dropping into the 60s overnight.

Thursday and Friday

These should be splendid, late-spring days with highs in the mid- to upper-80s, sunny skies, and slightly drier air. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the mid-60s for much of the region, while Friday evening will be a touch warmer. My pick of the week will be Thursday evening, when I expect very pleasant conditions out of doors. Enjoy this spring fling!

Memorial Day Weekend

The holiday weekend will see warmer weather with mostly sunny skies. Highs through Monday should be around 90 degrees, or in the low 90s at the warmest. Dewpoints will be rising, but not to oppressive levels. Rain chances look to be near zero until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Hi all. Just a short weekend update to note the potential for some reasonably strong thunderstorms late tonight as a cold front pushes into the region. Today will be hot and mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Winds will be gusty out of the south, so it will be pretty much business as usual in terms of our recent weather. But conditions will begin to change tonight with a significant pattern change.

Saturday night

It looks like a (probably broken) line of storms will reach College Station around midnight, and then trudge down toward the coast by around sunrise. Probably the major threat is briefly strong straight-line winds, with the secondary potential for small hail. In terms of rainfall, accumulations will probably vary from a sprinkling to 1 inch or more of rain, with greater accumulations likely along and north of Interstate 10.

Sunday

There may be a lull in shower activity on Sunday morning before the potential for some on-and-off showers returns on Sunday afternoon. Highs should reach the mid- to upper-80s. Rain chances will fall back Sunday night.

Next week

A healthy chance of rain returns Monday night and then may stay with us through Wednesday night as a series of disturbances moves through, culminating in a slightly stronger cold front on Wednesday night or some time Thursday. Rain accumulations for most should be 2 to 4 inches for now through next Thursday, which is welcome. And if we end up with a night or two in the 60s late next week, that will just be a huge bonus.

We’ll have a full post up Monday morning, as usual.

There’s no question it has been a dry spring for the Houston area. Much of the region south of Interstate 10 has received less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, and this dry spell has come on top of an exceptionally hot May. Add these two factors together, and soils are rather dry heading into summer, which is a solid recipe for a significant drought. But summer is not fully here yet, and fortunately for us there’s a pattern change ahead this weekend that should bring some much-needed rainfall to the region before the onset of June.

Thursday

The rain isn’t here yet, however, and Houston will experience a few more blazing hot, sunny days before some relief arrives this weekend. Temperatures will reach the low 90s for most today, with mostly sunny skies, and a pronounced southerly flow. Look for winds out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Lows tonight won’t drop below of the mid-70s for most.

Friday

This will be another hot and sunny day, with high temperatures in the low-90s and gusty southerly winds. With increasing clouds, look for a very muggy night Friday, with lows only dropping into the upper 70s.

Saturday

The weekend will start out with cloudy skies and muggy conditions as temperatures reach the lower 90s on Saturday. For the most part, I expect rain showers to hold off on Saturday, with the possible exception of areas well to our northwest, including College Station. This will be due to a slow moving, weakening cold front that is likely to reach the Houston metro area late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. For the most part, I don’t really expect much rain in the Houston region until after midnight.

Sunday

As the front moves into Houston and essentially stalls, we should see widespread showers and thunderstorms. Overall, I’m not expecting anything too extreme, with accumulations likely on the order of 0.25 to 1.0 inch for most. Highs on Sunday will probably reach the upper 80s beneath mostly cloudy skies. Lows on Sunday night should drop to near 70 degrees overnight.

Early next week

The overall pattern for Monday through Wednesday is one where we have an unsettled atmosphere, with the remnants of the front hanging around, and disturbances passing overhead. With this kind of pattern I expect most of the region to pick up an additional 1 to 4 inches of rainfall through Wednesday. Highs should generally slot into the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. We should be back into the low 90s by the end of next week, with drier conditions. So for the sake of our region’s soils, and with apologies to those who have outdoor activities, I really hope the forecast for rainfall comes through next week.