Eric Berger

Good morning. The first of two cold fronts has now pushed into the region, and this will set the stage for cold, gray, and occasionally wet winter weather for awhile. Do not expect to see much, if any, sunshine before Sunday. This is probably the region’s last prolonged bout with chilly weather, as spring is probably coming in March.

Wednesday

It is now clear that this week’s first front will make it all the way to the coast. As a result, temperatures today will be in the 50s for most of the area, with occasional light rain and cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the north at around 10 mph, with higher gusts. Low temperatures tonight will vary quite a bit across the region, from the mid-30s for far inland areas to the low 50s right along the coast.

Thursday

This will be a cool and gray day for the region, with high temperatures likely ranging from 45 to 60 degrees across Houston to go along with leaden skies. There is the possibility of some light rain on Thursday, but any showers that do develop should be scattered, and any amounts very light. Rain chances are better Thursday evening and overnight as another front pushes through, but any accumulations should again be slight, perhaps one-tenth of an inch, or so. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 40s.

Friday

A few showers may linger after the second frontal passage, but mostly I think we’ll just see cloudy skies on Friday. Highs will probably top out at around 50 degrees for most areas, with a northerly breeze that could gust to 20 or 25 mph. Rain chances drop to near zero by Friday night.

Saturday

This will be another chilly and gray day, with highs likely in the 50s. We’ll see one more healthy chance of light rain as an atmospheric disturbance moves overhead. This will precede yet another front that should cross the area Saturday night, and finally usher in some high pressure. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s.

Sunday and beyond

Under the influence of high pressure, skies should clear out some on Sunday, perhaps during the late morning or afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures to reach about 60 degrees. This will begin a slow warming trend, with most of next week seeing highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows in the 50s, and partly to mostly sunny skies. So if gray and cold is not your bag, baby, then next week should be more to your liking.

Before getting into the weather for this week, here’s a quick word in response to a question we’re getting a lot recently: Will there be any more freezes? I know it’s a question on your mind because I’ve been asked here, via email, and on Twitter, and Facebook during the last 24 hours. The answer is probably not; but not definitively not. Most of the Houston region has now passed the “average” date of its last freeze, so the odds of seeing freezing temperatures are less than 50 percent. However, the region has recorded freezes as late as April (see chart below).

With that said, I think the chances of seeing a freeze again this winter are low. While our weather will turn quite a bit colder from Friday through the middle of next week, it’s very likely not going to freeze in the metro area (College Station is another story, and could see a light freeze Friday morning). So we probably are safe through the first few days of March without a freeze. At that point the historical odds of a freeze fall below one-in-four. As is often the case with weather, our answer is probabilistic. In all likelihood, it’s not going to freeze at your house again this season, especially if you’re on the Gulf side of Interstate 10. But we’re not offering any money-back guarantees.

Tuesday

Today will be similar to Monday, with mostly overcast skies and temperatures nudging up into the low- to mid-80s. Winds will be out of the south, and gusty at times, perhaps reaching 25 mph. Some very light, misty rain will be possible, but overall chances are fairly low. Tonight will be cloudy, with lows dropping into the mid-60s.

Wednesday

In Monday’s post we discussed how the first front this week, arriving on Wednesday, was likely to stall out somewhere across the northern part of the Houston region. Well, things change. Now it appears as though the front will make a deeper push into Houston. Effectively this means that Tuesday will probably be the last really warm day this week as I now think the cold front will push all the way to the coast on Wednesday morning. If this happens, most of Houston away from the coast should wake up in the 40s or 50s on Wednesday, with daily highs only getting into the 60s. There is about a 50 percent chance of light rain during the day, but we don’t expect any meaningful accumulations.

Thursday

Our forecast continues to be uncertain for Thursday. While I think the bulk of the region will continue to see cooler air and cloudy skies, there is a non-zero chance that the front lifts back north and coastal areas see warmer and more muggy weather. However, for now I think most of Houston sees highs in the 60s, with more clouds and chances for misty to light precipitation. A reinforcing front should arrive on Thursday and push much further into the Gulf of Mexico, with lows dropping into the upper 30s for inland parts of Houston and lower 40s closer to the coast.

Friday

We’re confident that the entire region will be cold by Friday morning, with daytime highs likely topping out in the 50s, and another chilly night in the 40s for most. Skies will remain cloudy with a slight chance of light rain.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday will see more cool and cloudy weather, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, and a chance of light rain. Sunday should finally see the return of partly sunny skies, and highs perhaps in the low 60s. Rain chances should be gone by then. Most of next week looks to yield partly sunny days with highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. This could be the last extended stretch of winter-like weather for our region, so if that’s your jam, be sure and enjoy it.

Houston will see four days of warm temperatures, with highs around 80 degrees, and mostly cloudy skies before a front arrives some time on Thursday or Thursday night to cool things down for the weekend. We won’t see much sunshine before about Sunday, however.

Monday

Presidents’ Day, which honors all people who have served as President of the United States, will see overcast skies as the onshore flow strengthens. Winds at the surface may gust up to 20 mph from the south, and these increasing moisture levels will help to drive up rain chances today. However, due to a capping inversion in the atmosphere, any rains should remain light, mostly in the form of a misty precipitation. Overall accumulations should be very slight. Lows tonight will only fall into the mid- to upper-60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These days will bring more of the same: Highs near 80 degrees, mostly cloudy skies, and southerly to southeasterly winds. Chances for light or misty precipitation remain on both days. Nights will be quite warm. A cold front will march southward toward the region on Wednesday, but it’s going to stall somewhere near or over the metro area. This stall will probably occur inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69, but how far inland? What side of the front you’re on will affect your weather, in terms of knocking down temperatures and humidity. The front should back some to the north on Wednesday night.

Thursday

For most of the region, outside of areas like College Station far inland, this will be another warm day before a second front arrives and pushes all the way through Houston later during the day or Thursday night. I think there will be some scattered showers with this front, but nothing too organized. Depending on the timing of this front, lows will drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Thursday night in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Friday will be chilly in the wake of the front, with highs somewhere in the 50s, and a brisk northerly wind. Clouds and chances for light precipitation will linger on Friday and Saturday as the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere remain somewhat disturbed. Skies may not really clear out until Sunday, when high pressure stabilizes the atmosphere. Highs will likely remain in the low 60s through the first half of next week, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. So we’re expecting a cold spell, but probably not a frigid one.

Good morning. Houston will experience warm, windy, and mostly cloudy weather before a strong-ish cold front arrives during the middle of the day Thursday to cool things off. Temperatures could bottom out in the upper 30s on Friday and Saturday morning in Houston, with somewhat chilly weather lasting through most of the weekend.

Wednesday

This morning’s highlight was the setting of a very nearly full Moon, but skies will now cloud over for much of the area. A persistent and warm southerly flow will allow temperatures to reach the mid-70s today. In response to low pressure over the central United States, these winds may at times gust to 25 or 30 mph this afternoon. As atmospheric moisture levels rise, a few isolated, light rain showers will be possible today, but the majority of us should stay dry. Low temperatures tonight may only drop into the upper 60s for most, with an ongoing, slight chance of showers. Winds will remain blowy, from the south.

Thursday

After a muggy start, the aforementioned front should move into areas northwest of Houston during the morning hours, the central part of the city around noon, and reach the coast an hour or two later. Some scattered showers are possible with the front, but a capping inversion should limit the threat of any serious thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures will be in the 70s, but the mercury will pretty quickly start to drop as sunset approaches. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s, with the usual suspects far inland possibly seeing a light freeze.

Friday

This will be a cooler, mostly sunny day with highs in the mid- to upper 50s. Winds will come from the north, but at a mild 5 to 10 mph clip. Lows Friday night will probably be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should see mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures pushing into the low- to mid-60s. However, as high pressure moves off the onshore flow will resume, and this will allow for a warmer night in the 40s on Saturday, and highs perhaps around 70 degrees on Sunday. This onshore flow will probably lead to more clouds on Sunday as well, although any rain is unlikely before at least Sunday night or Monday.

Next week

You know the drill, temperature next week will continue to rise until the next front. In this case, I think highs may reach about 80 degrees by Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday depending on the timing of the front. I’d pencil the next front in for Wednesday-ish, but not with a whole lot of confidence.