Eric Berger

It is such a lovely day across the Houston region today it’s difficult to imagine unpleasant weather. But we’ve got plenty of that on tap for the week ahead, so we’re jumping in with a Sunday post to keep you in the loop.

Monday’s rains

We continue to expect that a low-pressure system will produce widespread rainfall across the Houston region on Monday, generally from the late-morning hours through around midnight. Rainfall amounts are going to vary widely with this system, as some areas pick up less than one-half inch of rain, and other locations 2 to 4 inches, if not a bit more. Because these rains have the potential to produce some nuisance street flooding, we think it’s worth instituting a Stage 1 Flood Alert. This will primarily affect areas south of Interstate 10, and west of Interstate 45.

Generally, the closer to the coast you live, and the further west of Houston, the more likely you are to see heavy rainfall. The good news is that we don’t anticipate any severe weather beyond heavy rainfall on Monday, so tornadoes or strong winds are unlikely. These rains should end over night with partly sunny skies on Tuesday.

Mid-week freeze

The next event on our radar—if you thought I was going to spare you weather puns because of the Sabbath, you thought wrong—is a cold front that will arrive on Wednesday night. Some additional rain showers may well accompany this front, but I think our atmosphere will dry out before the coldest air arrives. This should preclude any wintry precipitation for the Houston metro area, but I’m not ready to entirely rule that out yet.

The bigger story will be colder air, with low temperatures likely dropping into the 20s for Houston on Thursday and Friday nights. Even Galveston Island may see a light freeze on Thursday night. These temperatures should be about 10 degrees warmer than the region experienced during the freeze last February, but it will nonetheless be quite cold. As we get closer, we’ll be able to fine tune the temperature forecast.

Still more significant impacts are likely for inland parts of the state this week, particularly the Dallas area. Beginning late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, snow and ice are likely for the Metroplex. Low temperatures on Thursday night probably will get into the teens. So if your plans take you north of Houston this week, roads and more could be mess.

If you’re wondering what this means for the Texas power grid, the answer is I don’t know. We’re not going to see the cold extremes we saw in 2021, but it will still be plenty cold across the entire state.

More tomorrow.

Good morning. Houston will see lots of sunshine and cooler weather over the next four days before some clouds, warmer air, and pretty healthy rain chances move into the picture early next week. After a few warmer, wetter days it appears likely that a strong cold front will arrive on Wednesday to bring us very much back into winter-like conditions. A freeze seems probable late next week.

Thursday

Today will bring pleasant weather, with light northeasterly winds and mostly sunny skies. We can expect high temperatures to reach about 60 degrees for most area. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the upper 40s as a reinforcing front arrives. Some very light precipitation is possible overnight as the front moves through, but the more noticeable impact should be gusty northerly winds.

Friday

Those winds will build through the morning, perhaps gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the early afternoon hours as they peak. With the influx of drier air we should see clouds eroding during the morning hours, with lots of sunshine by the afternoon. Highs will only reach the mid-50s, however, and as night falls and the wind drops, air temperatures will plummet into the 30s in Houston, with a light freeze possible for inland areas.

Saturday

This will be sunny and chilly winter day. Expect highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with light northerly winds. Low temperatures Saturday night should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Friday night.

Sunday

This will be another sunny day, although a few clouds may form during the afternoon or evening hours as winds turn to come from the southeast. Expect highs to reach the mid- to upper-60s, with lows dropping to somewhere in the vicinity of 50 degrees on Sunday night.

Next week

A series of upper-level disturbances will move through the area, and as the atmosphere moistens with the onshore flow we’ll see rising rain chances. I think most of our region will probably see 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday, with high temperatures in the range of 70 degrees.

A front looks set to arrive on Wednesday, bringing some of the coldest weather of the season. It’s too early to have any confidence in the forecast, but most of the region will probably see some sort of a freeze. To be clear, there is zero support for a freeze like we experienced in February 2021. It just looks like a pretty good cold spell. Details, as always, to come.

In the wake of Tuesday’s cold front, Houston will now see a period of chilly days with partly to mostly sunny skies through the weekend. Clouds, some humidity, and rain chances return on Monday. All in all, it will feel a lot like winter in Houston.

Wednesday

Winds are blowing out of the north this morning at 10 to 15 mph from the northeast and this influx of cooler air should continue for most of today, limiting high temperatures in the mid-50s despite the presence of sunny skies. A few clouds will develop overnight, but temperatures should still drop to around 40 degrees in Houston as winds slacken somewhat.

Thursday

Some clouds will work their way into the region on Thursday ahead of the next cold front, so expect partly sunny skies during the morning, and grayer conditions as we get toward evening. Highs should reach the upper 50s for most locations, with light northeasterly winds. Overnight lows will drop into the low- to mid-40s. Some light rain is possible Thursday night as the front passes through early Friday morning.

Friday

Skies should begin to clear out in the wake of the front, but even with the sunny skies temperatures will crest in the mid- to upper-50s. This will be a somewhat chilly day, with winds gusting out of the north at or above 20 mph during the daytime. Lows Friday night will drop into the 30s in Houston, and a light freeze is possible for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks tremendous for late January, with mostly sunny skies and cool, dry air. Look for highs near 60 degrees on Saturday, with overnight lows dropping to around 40 degrees, and highs in the upper 60s on Sunday.

Next week

As the onshore flow returns, look for increasing atmospheric moisture levels to spark a decent chance of rain through about Wednesday. Highs should eventually climb back into the low 70s before a front late on Tuesday or some time Wednesday brings more chilly weather back into the picture, with nights perhaps dropping back down to around 40 degrees. Look for rainfall accumulations of perhaps 1 inch next week, give or take.

Good morning. Although today will be our region’s warmest day until Sunday, the high temperature will probably not reach 60 degrees for some locations. Beyond the chillier conditions, and the potential for a light freeze on Saturday morning, there is not a whole lot to remark upon as Houston experiences fairly typical weather for this time of year. And if you like it, you’re in luck. After a brief warm-up early next week, this chilly weather could persist through at least the first half of February.

Tuesday

Temperatures will rise from the upper 40s this morning to around 60 degrees for much of the area today, but likely not go any higher due to mostly cloudy skies. A northerly flow will bring drier air into the region later today, and this will eventually erode cloud cover late today or tonight. As this drier and cooler air works its way into the region, expect temperatures to drop to around 40 degrees tonight, with cooler weather inland and warmer conditions along the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of chilly winter days, with highs generally in the 50s, and lows in the 40s. Wednesday will see lots of sunshine, but Thursday should see the return of some clouds. Both days will probably see light northerly winds, with possibly a shift to southerly winds by Thursday evening.

Friday

Another cold front will arrive on Friday, probably during the morning, to shut down any kind of a serious warmup for the region. The atmosphere will be fairly dry so I’m betting against rain with this front, but it can’t entirely be ruled out. Winds will be breezy, out of the north, on Friday in the wake of the front and highs may struggle to reach the low 50s despite sunny skies. Temperatures will drop sharply on Friday night with clear skies and lessening winds. Much of the region away from the coast, and outside of Houston’s urban core, will probably see a light freeze on Saturday morning.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday is likely to be sunny, with moderate winds, and a high of around 60 degrees for most areas. This will be a fine winter day for any outdoor activities. Sunday should be partly sunny as well, with highs in the mid-60s as winds shift to come from the south. I think rain chances will remain near zero for most of Sunday, so this should be a fine day for outdoor activities as well.

A warming trend will occur from about Monday through Wednesday of next week, with highs reaching perhaps the low 70s by the middle of the week. Rain chances look to be healthy all three of these days, with accumulations of perhaps 1 to 2 inches, but it’s way too early to say anything more specific than the pattern is likely to turn wetter. A front on Wednesday night, give or take half a day, is likely to bring colder and drier weather back to the region.

A few words on generators

I wanted to say a few words about generators this morning because now is the time to be thinking about such a project in advance of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. As demand for whole-home generators has surged following the great Texas freeze last February as well as COVID supply chain issues, there is now an industry-wide lead time of 8-9 months from initial inquiry to completed installation. While these times have begun to shorten, if you want to have peace of mind with backup power this summer and fall, now is the time to begin planning.

As you probably know, Reliant is a long-time sponsor of Space City Weather. They partner with a company called Quality Generators that offer a range of generator products, including whole-home generators. I had one installed last year, and the process was quite smooth. Buying a generator capable of powering your entire home is a major investment. For the average homeowner in Houston, it will likely cost between $10,000 and $15,000. But for many, it may be a worthwhile investment.

Here are a few other things to consider: