Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston’s weather remains exceptionally calm, with light winds, warm temperatures, and moderately drier air. This pattern will persist into the weekend, when the onshore flow returns, and humidity levels rise. Rain chances remain zero through the weekend.

Wednesday

Today will bring sunny skies, and highs in the upper 80s. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 mph or less. With dewpoints in the 60s, the air will be feel drier than is typical during the summer, but not exactly dry. Lows overnight will drop into the low 60s for inland areas, mid-60s for Houston, and low 70s for right along the coast.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

Winds will start increasing from the south and southeast later on Friday and this will start to drive up humidity levels this weekend. Saturday will still feel a tad dry as highs push up to around 90 degrees, but Sunday should feel more like “Houston” humid out there. Skies should be mostly sunny, regardless, with no chance of rain. Plan outdoor activities with high confidence.

Next week

The forecast for next week is written very much in pencil. Low to moderate rain chances return by Monday or Tuesday. A front should near the area during the early part of the week, but will likely wash out before pushing into Houston. A stronger front is likely next weekend, but any details right now are pretty sketchy.

Hispanic Heritage Month

The U.S. Hispanic Heritage Month runs from September 15 through October 15, and recognizes the contribution of Hispanic Americans to the history and culture of our country. Matt, Maria, and I thought we would put a fun spin on this by talking about the history of hurricane names, and why some of them have Hispanic names.

The forecast for the week ahead is pretty straightforward and locked in, so we’re not going to take up too much of your time this morning. Expect lots of sunny skies and somewhat drier air through about Saturday, after which the onshore flow returns. Some slight rain chances return late Sunday or Monday.

Tuesday

Some readers have groused that this isn’t much of a front, and I’m here to tell you there’s a reason why we characterized it as a weak one. The truth is, we’re mostly just seeing a northerly flow rather an abundance of colder air. Nevertheless this flow will have a salutary effect on our humidity levels for awhile. Today should be the driest day, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s, and accordingly I think Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will see the lowest temperatures for the week. Highs today should be in the mid- to upper-80s, with lows tonight dropping to about 60 degrees for inland areas, and low 70s right along the coast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Rinse and repeat. These will be sunny days, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s for most. The air will not be super dry, but it won’t be sultry and humid either. Take what you can get in early October, I say.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should more or less see a continuation of the weather we see most of this week, albeit with slightly rising humidity levels. Sunday should feel more like “Houston,” as the onshore flow resumes, and dewpoints start to climb toward 70 degrees. Highs this weekend will be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. A slight chance of showers returns Sunday night.

Next week and beyond

Most of next week looks warm, with highs near 90 degrees, but right now there’s no real signal in the models for too much in the way of rainfall. When is the next real cold front coming to Houston, you might ask? Right now there’s a pretty decent signal in both the European and GFS ensembles for something about 12 days from now, circa October 17. But that’s a long, long, long way out for us to have any confidence in the model forecasts. So we’ll just have to wait and see.

The threat of heavy rainfall has passed, and Houston will now enter a period of tranquil weather. Drier air will move into the region today in the wake of Sunday’s front, and we should see moderately cooler nighttime temperatures through Friday or Saturday morning. After this morning, rain chances are basically zero until at least next Monday or Tuesday. Enjoy the sunshine.

Monday

Some clouds remain this morning across the region, but these should mix out as the day progresses to leave us with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. With ample sunshine, highs will reach the upper 80s for most of Houston. But as dewpoints fall through the day, we’ll see pleasant conditions this evening, with lows dropping into the mid-60s in Houston, with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler for inland areas.

Tuesday through Friday

Conditions more or less remain the same for the rest of the work week, with sunny days and highs in the upper 80s. Lows will be in the 60s. Dewpoints will bottom out on Tuesday, so this will feel like our driest day, but humidity levels will remain reasonable for the whole week.

Saturday and Sunday

More of an onshore flow returns this weekend, and temperatures will return to more summer-like levels, with highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the 70s. The humidity won’t be oppressive, but it will be noticeably higher. After this point we’ll be on the lookout for the next cold front, but most likely an approaching front will stall before entering Houston early the following week.

Good morning. Houston faces a couple of more wet days, with the potential for heavy rainfall, before drier and slightly cooler weather arrives early next week.

Thursday

After a quiet night, in terms of rainfall, we’ll see activity increase this morning along the coast and migrate inland during the day. These storms should move along at a decent clip, so we don’t expect major impacts, but some locations could pick up a quick half inch of rainfall. Rain chances are probably greater than 50 percent south of Interstate 10, and less than that for inland areas. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures likely will remain confined to the mid-80s for much of the area. Rain chances should slacken late this afternoon, or during the evening.

Friday

This should be a similar day, as our atmosphere remains moist and open to upper-level disturbances moving through. Rain chances are probably 60 to 70 percent during the daytime, with briefly heavy rain and thunderstorms possible. While there is the potential for heavy rainfall on Friday, conditions are more favorable for this to happen closer to Austin than Houston. Storms should weaken during the late afternoon hours, and likely wind down after sunset. Highs will again be in the mid-80s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend is far enough out that I don’t feel too confident in the specifics, but with elevated moisture levels it does seem possible that we could continue to see the potential for widespread showers, and some heavy rainfall on Saturday—maybe during the morning hours? The bottom line, I think, is that any outdoor plans on Saturday should come with an asterisk. Highs will probably reach the mid-80s with more cloudy skies.

Sunday

The pattern begins to change on Sunday, with atmospheric moisture levels dropping in advance of a frontal passage. As a result, skies should turn partly sunny on Sunday, with rain chances falling during the day. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-80s. The front itself, which is fairly weak, should push into Houston during the late evening hours or so, and move off the coast over night or early on Monday.

Next week

Next week should be sunny, in the wake of the front, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. The cooldown won’t be too dramatic, but rain will go away for several days, and the air will be noticeably drier. I’ll take it.