Eric Berger

Good morning. After a hot and sunny weekend, with a splash of showers on Labor Day, Houston’s pattern will see continued sunny skies this week. The principal difference, however, will be somewhat drier air across the region that will bring some cooler nights. Areas well inland may even see some lows in the upper 60s for a few nights. Highs will remain toasty, however, with ample sunshine warming the drier air quickly. Rain chances are essentially nil until next Sunday.

Tuesday

The aforementioned dry air mass should move southward across the entire region, reaching the coast this afternoon or evening. As this happens. highs today will climb the mid-90s across the area, with sunny skies and light winds from the north. The real fun will start this evening, as the sun sets. The (modestly) drier air will make itself felt in the form of temperatures and dewpoints this evening and on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

This, too, will be a sunny day, with highs in the mid- to upper 90s, and winds becoming westerly later in the day. Humidity levels should begin to rise later on Wednesday, and conditions could become a little sticky overnight.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

Yet another somewhat drier air mass should move into the region on Thursday, or so, and this should set the stage for some more decently nice late summer weather. Look for sunny skies, highs in the mid-90s, and lows in the upper 60s for inland areas, low 70s in Houston, and a bit warmer along the coast. Again, evenings and mornings should be nice for outdoor activity.

Sunday and beyond

The dry pattern is going to break pretty emphatically by Sunday or Monday, as high pressure moves off, and our region becomes open to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Sunday may still be sunny and warm, but at some point cloudy and muggier weather will set in, and rain chances will go up. Our region, as a rough guess, may see 2 to 4 inches of rain next week week, with daily chances. We will of course have to refine this forecast in the days ahead.

Tropics

Texas has about two to three weeks during which we need to closely monitor the tropics, after which we should move into a more fall-like pattern. And the good news is that there’s really nothing to worry about over at least the next week. Right now we’re tracking an area of low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico that should eventually move toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico, bringing some rainfall to the Florida Panhandle later this week. Hurricane Larry is beginning to slowly weaken, and will hopefully turn north before affecting Bermuda.

Finally, we may see some additional development in the Southern Gulf of Mexico in about a week or 10 days (not shown on the map above). This activity, possibly in the form of a tropical depression, may influence our rain chances next week. For now we’re seeing no indication of a strong tropical storm forming from this area, but at this time of year we’ll keep close tabs on it.

Good morning. Houston will remain in a hot, late-summer pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Rain chances will not go to zero, but they should remain quite low over the Labor Day weekend.

In response to yesterday’s post about whether August or September had the worst weather in Houston, I conducted an informal poll on Twitter. About 70 percent of respondents chose August, compared to 26 percent who selected September. Four percent said some other month was worse.

Thursday

Temperatures this morning are quite muggy, with lows only in the low 80s for some locations. With high pressure building to the north of our region, showers will again be most likely today along and south of Interstate 10. These areas closer to the coast may have about a 50 percent chance of rain later today compared to 20 percent or so inland. Highs will generally get into the mid-90s this afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday

A similar day to Thursday, with rain chances higher along the coast and lesser inland. Highs again should slot somewhere in the mid-90s.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

Labor Day weekend looks mostly sunny and hot, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, and rain chances of 20 percent or less as high pressure more directly influences our weather.

Next week

By Tuesday or so of next week we should start to see pressures fall, which will lead to a few more clouds and should bump rain chances up into the 30 to 50 percent chance each day. This will also probably knock temperatures down into the low-90s. If you’re wondering when fall’s first real cold front might arrive, there’s still no real sign of it in the global models. Typically it comes around the third or fourth week of September.

Tropics

The remnants of Ida absolutely drenched the northeastern United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night, spawning tornadoes and causing major flooding in New Jersey and New York. While 7 to 8 inches of rain may not seem like a lot to a Houston resident, those are historic rainfall amounts for areas not designed to drain quickly.

As for storms over water, Hurricane Larry is on its way to becoming a major hurricane, and may eventually affect Bermuda, or may turn north before doing so. The Caribbean system we’ve been talking about still has low chances of developing, but even if it does seems likely to remain well south of Texas. We’re getting to the home stretch of the tropics for Texas in 2021, and Matt, Maria, and myself will be recording a video on Friday talking more about what the next three weeks may look like.

August is over. I always find it interesting to debate whether August or September is the worst month, weather-wise, in Houston. I’m definitely on “Team August” because it’s the hottest month with no hope of relief. But many readers loathe September more, because it’s often nearly as hot, there’s a persistent threat of hurricanes, and the wait for the first real cool front seems to take forever. I can see both sides. But I’m still glad August is over.

Wednesday

Although September is here, it definitely will feel like summer. Tuesday’s high temperature reached 99 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and today will probably be nearly as hot. Skies will be mostly sunny. Later today the combination of moisture and daytime heating should spark some showers. Chances are likely about 40 percent south of Interstate 10, and 20 percent or less inland, further from the source of the moisture. Some showers could be briefly intense. Lows tonight will be sultry.

Thursday

This day should be a lot like Wednesday.

Friday

Another day where we should see a decent chance of showers closer to the coast, with lesser chances inland. Highs will be in the mid-90s.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

As high pressure builds over the area, Labor Day Weekend 2021 will be mostly sunny and hot, with minimal rain chances of about 10 percent. Highs will be in the mid-90s. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Rain chances should perk up by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and this could help to drive temperatures down into the low 90s.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest an area of low pressure in the Southern Caribbean Sea has a modest chance of developing over the next week, but pretty much all of our best available model guidance keeps that system bottled up in the Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico. We’ll continue to watch it, of course. Way out in the Atlantic Tropical Storm Larry has formed, and it likely will become a major hurricane over the next five days. It should recurve before affecting any landmasses, including hopefully Bermuda.

Let’s be honest, Houston. This summer has not been that bad. June’s average temperature was 0.6 degrees below normal, July was 1.1 degrees below normal, and August has been 0.6 degrees above normal. Although there have been dry spells, there have been no prolonged droughts. And while we’ve had some heavy rainfall, as summers go, there has been no widespread flooding. And then there’s this: The National Weather Service notes the city has not recorded a 100-degree day since August 29, 2020. So we’ve gone a full 365 days. The last time our region recorded a year without a 100-degree day was 2014.

That is not to say summer is over, but it is winding down. Most notably, days are getting shorter. Today there will be 12 hours, and 46 minutes of daylight, compared to 14 hours and 3 minutes in June. Each new day is now a couple of minutes shorter. The next 10 to 14 days do look fairly warm, to be sure, and there’s a chance we’ll yet hit 100 degrees this year. But after that I think we’re safe. I’d say there’s even about a 25 percent chance we see our first cold front in about 12 to 14 days. Finally there’s the threat of hurricanes. Fortunately we don’t see any immediate threats to the Texas coast.

Tuesday

Today will be similar to Monday, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s. As atmospheric moisture levels increase a little bit later today we could see a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms, but rain chances are probably only about 20 percent. Winds will be light out of the west. Conditions tonight will be warm and muggy.

Wednesday and Thursday

Atmospheric moisture levels should peak mid-week and this will perhaps allow rain chances to rise to 30 or 40 percent. Showers should still be pretty scattered in nature, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid- to upper 90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As high pressure builds over the region we should see mostly sunny skies this weekend with low to non-existent rain chances. Look for highs in the mid- to upper 90s with slightly cooler nights in the mid- to upper 70s. Plan your outdoor activities this weekend with confidence.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center still gives an area of low pressure in the Southern Caribbean Sea a 20 percent chance of developing later this week. However, should anything eventually form—and this may well not happen due to the proximity of Central America—high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico should keep it bottled up to the south of Texas. For the end of August, things look pretty good across the tropics for the Gulf.