Throughout today the European forecast model has been advertising the potential for a tropical disturbance to develop in the Gulf of Mexico, and then move toward the Texas coast this weekend. This evening, in its 7pm CT update, the National Hurricane Center gave this system a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days.
(National Hurricane Center)
Here’s what we can tell you: this system very likely will not have much impact on our region’s weather. We have already forecast a healthy chance of rainfall on Friday and Saturday along the upper Texas coast, and that will not change. Our expectation is that most of the region from Houston to Beaumont will see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain through Saturday night, with higher isolated totals. All of this should be manageable despite our recent rainfall.
This Gulf low pressure system, which remains poorly organized this evening, is forecast to track north, and then northwest, likely approaching the Texas coast late on Friday night or Saturday. Although there is the possibility it may organize somewhat, it will also be drawing in somewhat drier air that will limit this.
European model prediction for where a Tropical Depression may form. (Weather Bell)
The bottom line is that yes, we realize no one wants to see a tropical blob in the Gulf of Mexico. However, this one likely carries a minimal threat, and we expect the region to really begin to dry out on Sunday. We’ll have more in the morning.
Good morning. The Houston region should see a quiet day today, with scattered showers, before more widespread rain chances return on Friday and Saturday. Overall accumulations, however, should generally remain in the 1 to 4 inch total through Saturday. We therefore are dropping the use of our flood scale as the overall threat diminishes further. It is worth noting that a bit to our east, particularly the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas, could see a bit heavier rainfall this weekend. They were hit much harder earlier this week.
I also want to call attention to a special discussion this afternoon at 3 pm CT, which you can register for here. As part of an event produced by the South Main Alliance, Leroy “Shafe” Shafer, the longtime chief operating officer of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, will interview me. We’ll talk about the origins of Space City Weather, the upcoming hurricane season, and the writing of my book on the early years of SpaceX, Liftoff. The event is free!
Thursday
Our radar is blessedly clear this morning, and we expect only isolated to scattered showers later today. It is possible that the sunshine may peek through for a bit this afternoon or early evening, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. Highs will climb into the low 80s this afternoon, with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Friday
Rainfall should become more widespread beginning early Friday morning, and we’ll see fairly high chances all day. However, these storms should be fairly fast moving, and most areas will likely see less than 1 inch of rain. Highs will be around 80 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances will slacken a bit overnight.
Saturday
One final burst of moisture arrives on Saturday, and in the upcoming period this should be the day when our region has its best rain chances. Much of Houston could see around 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain on Saturday, give or take, with mostly cloudy skies and highs around 80 degrees. This won’t be great for outdoor activities, but at least we do not anticipate any significant flooding from these rains.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)
Sunday
Rain chances aren’t going to entirely go away on Sunday, but they should drop back quite a bit. We also expect to see at least a modest amount of sunshine during the afternoon hours, although I’m not sure it’s going to get full blown sunny on us. Highs will probably reach the low 80s.
Next week
Skies will turn partly, and then probably mostly sunny next week. This will allow high temperatures to climb into the mid-, or possibly upper-80s by the end of the week. Some slight rain chances will remain each day, but any showers that develop look to be fairly scattered in nature. It’s late May, so you should know better than to inquire about future cold fronts.
Good afternoon. The atmosphere has behaved itself so far today, with most of the area seeing one-half inch of rainfall, or less, since sunrise. We expect this trend to continue today and tonight. Yes, rain will be possible. No, it should not be extreme.
Overall, we think the threat of a big ticket rainfall event—which will lead to significant flooding—is diminishing this week. Therefore we are lowering out Space City Weather Flood Scale alert level to Stage 1. This means we can mostly expect nuisance street flooding over the next couple of days.
That’s not to say the rain is over.
Showers will continue to be possible along the coast this afternoon and tonight. On Thursday, we expect showers to be more scattered in nature, offering a nice reprieve. But beginning Thursday night we could see redevelopment of more widespread activity, and then the potential for moderate or even heavy briefly rainfall on Friday and into Saturday morning. Overall accumulations will likely be in the neighborhood of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated amounts possible south of Interstate 10, closer to the coast, and east of Houston. Even though the region’s soils are saturated, we just don’t see a huge threat to the metro area. Obviously, we’ll be tracking things closely until the risk is over.
Unless there’s a change in our thinking, we’ll next update on Thursday morning.
A ferocious line of storms roared through Houston on Tuesday night, producing a biblical amount of lightning, threatening with tornadoes, throwing down some hail, and dropping buckets of rain. But there was a silver lining—a silver lining that if I’m being honest I did not fully anticipate—with these storms. Rather than slowing to a crawl as they moved into Houston, these storms kept right on trucking. Yes, the storms produced intense rainfall rates as high as 4 inches per hour, but as the heaviest bands of rainfall kept moving on there simply was not enough time for serious flooding.
Houston radar at 11:21 pm CT on Tuesday night as the storms kept moving. (Radar Scope)
Can I get an amen?
Seriously, I’m not sure I’ve ever been so happy to observe a radar absolutely lit up by bright red hues, indicating intense rainfall rates, as I was tonight. Because those storms kept on moving through. Instead of slow-moving storms that trained over our areas, we got a freight train. Choo-choo!
If I sound a bit loopy tonight it’s because I’m just so tired of writing about horrendous floods in Houston. Tax Day floods. Memorial Day floods. Halloween floods. Hurricane Harvey. Tropical Storm Imelda. Beta. It goes on, and on, and on. So tonight it feels amazing to write that Houston did not flood. I can write that this line of storms, which could have been very, very bad for the region, was by-and-large not bad. We had an hour of fire and brimstone, most everyone got 1 to 3 inches of rain, and then this system moved along.
So what comes next? The rainfall and threat of severe storms is moving to the east, and offshore, for the night. Some light to moderate rainfall may persist across Houston during the overnight hours, but this will not pose a significant flooding threat. Going to work, school, or other activities on Wednesday morning should be fine.
It looks as though we may see some additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms coming through later on Wednesday, after the atmosphere has a chance to recharge, and then again on Thursday. Given that I still have some slight concerns about areas just east of Houston on Thursday, I’m going to leave our flood scale alert at Stage 2 for now. But given more data by the morning we may be able to ratchet that back a bit. Matt will have an update by around 7 am or before on Wednesday.
