Eric Berger

About nine weeks have now passed since the brutal winter storm that crippled the state of Texas’ electricity generation system. Since that time, however, Houston has enjoyed mostly spectacular weather. It’s difficult to quantify things, but the large majority of weekends have seen mostly sunny skies, dry air, and mild temperatures. This most recent weekend brought more of the same weather and the (very) early outlook for next weekend is not bad. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, because March and April typically offer some of this region’s nicest weather, and this year both months delivered.

Monday

Temperatures this morning are in the mid-60s, and they will climb into the low 80s this afternoon with partly sunny skies. Winds will blow from the southeast at about 10 mph, with higher gusts, and this will signal the return of the onshore flow. With this influx of more moist air humidity levels will rise, and overnight temperatures will likely not fall below 70 degrees for much of the metro area tonight.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly cloudy, and this likely will help to limit temperatures in the low 80s. Winds will continue to blow from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, and this will pump up moisture levels for rain chances later this week, but for now Tuesday should remain free from precipitation. Lows Tuesday night will only drop into the low 70s.

Wednesday

Another day with a breezy flow off the Gulf of the Mexico. It’s possible there will be some breaks in the clouds on Wednesday, and if so this will allow temperatures to climb into the mid- to upper-80s. This likely will be the warmest day of the week, and for now at least rain chances should remain about 10 percent or less. Lows will again be warm.

Thursday and Friday

A front will approach the region on Thursday and should cross the area by Thursday evening. This front will bring a healthy chance of showers to the region. Right now accumulations for most areas will probably be in the one-tenth to one-half inch range, with most rain during the daytime on Thursday. Highs on Thursday should be in the low 80s. Some rain chances will linger on Friday, but any accumulations should be very slight. Friday will see partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

For now, we think Houston will see a drier pattern this weekend, with at least partly sunny skies. As we enter May, it’s difficult to beat highs in the low 80s with moderate dewpoints. We can’t entirely rule out some rain chances, at least not yet, but overall the weekend forecast looks promising at this point.

After another resplendent springtime day on Wednesday, clouds and humidity will return on Thursday. This will set the stage for widespread rainfall on Friday but we’re fortunate to have another great weekend on tap after the storms pass.

Thursday

Lows this morning have dropped into the upper 40s for areas well inland, but most of the metro region is seeing temperatures in the low to mid-50s. However, as easterly winds turn more southeasterly, we’ll see a more rapid return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is already leading to the development of some clouds, and by this afternoon skies should turn mostly cloudy. Highs today will reach the low 70s for most areas, with overnight lows only dropping a few degrees. Rains should hold off until late tonight.

Friday

The return of moisture and approach of a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere should bring widespread rainfall into the Houston region on Friday and Friday night. Showers should be scattered during the morning hours, but pick up in coverage and intensity later during the day, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Some uncertainty definitely remains, but I think areas south of Interstate 10 should generally receive about 0.5 inch of rain, whereas areas north of I-10 could see 1.0 inch or more. There are some risks for severe weather, particularly strong thunderstorms with damaging winds, and hail. Please note, much of the area will probably not experience severe weather, but it is something to watch out for. Despite mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks quite nice, with a front on Friday night dragging drier air into the region. This will lead to clearing skies on Saturday, with at-times brisk northerly winds. Highs will climb into the low 80s, with lows dropping on Saturday night to around 60 degrees in Houston. Sunday will be sunny, again in the low 80s, with a cool but not cold night.

Next week

Houston will begin a warming trend on Monday, and likely reach the mid- to upper-80s by midweek before another front approaches the area. We still have questions about the details, but this front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area after a period of sunny days.

The low temperature this morning at Houston’s official weather station, Bush Intercontinental Airport, has dropped to 46 degrees. This is within 4 degrees of the record low for this date, and is the coldest morning after April 20 since May 3, 2003. It won’t last!

Wednesday

With apparent temperatures in the 30s across inland parts of the region, this is definitely a morning to bundle up. Those northeast winds will continue to blow at 10 to 15 mph today, with higher gusts. Thanks to mostly sunny skies, high temperatures should rise to around 70 degrees across the area. Winds will slacken some this evening, shifting to come from the east. Lows tonight will drop to around 50 degrees north of Interstate 10, with warmer conditions closer to the coast.

Thursday

As high pressure associated with Tuesday night’s front moves east of the area, winds will bend to come from offshore, and this will drive atmospheric moisture levels upward. Gusts may reach about 20 mph. This will result in the return of some clouds Thursday, and then very healthy rain chances on Friday. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low 70s, and overnight lows will likely not fall below the upper 60s. Some very light, scattered showers will be possible Thursday night.

Friday

This will be a humid and wet day. Highs will likely reach the upper 70s, but the bigger story will be the increase of showers and thunderstorms from late morning through the evening hours. This weather will be spurred by an upper-level low pressure system that will bring a slight potential for severe weather, including hail, to much of the state.

The region could use more rainfall, so it’s hard to complain too much about a wet Friday. Although we expect accumulations of 0.5 to 2.0 inches across much of the area, we do have a few concerns about locally heavy rainfall that briefly flood low-lying streets, at worst. This may affect Friday evening’s commute home. It does look as though rain chances for Houston will end early on Saturday morning, before sunrise, as a cool front clears the area.

Saturday and Sunday

With drier air in place, the weekend looks quite nice. We should see mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s, and lows in the low 60s, for both Saturday and Sunday. My only slight concern is some potentially gusty winds on Saturday, perhaps above 20 mph, as the front moves in.

Next week

It looks like the region will see a warming trend before another (weak, probably?) front pushes through sometime around Wednesday. This will bring another decent chance of rain to the region, although we can’t say much more than that. Will it bring 0.1 inch or 1 inch of rain? Stay tuned.

Good morning. A strong system that brought snow the parts of Colorado on Monday will push through Texas today and reach the Houston area tonight. High temperatures in west Texas today will be in the 50s—way below normal for late April—and the front will still have a good punch when it pushes into Houston this evening. Some areas of the metro area will fall into the 40s on Wednesday morning, and this could be the last time for that until at least October.

Tuesday

Before the front arrives, however, today will be fairly warm. With light, westerly winds and sunny skies we’ll see high temperatures today shoot up into the low- to mid-80s. This will be facilitated by a fairly dry air mass which, while it will certainly feel more comfortable than humidity, will nonetheless allow the air to heat up more rapidly. The front will reach the city around sunset and the coast around midnight, with winds gusting out of the north at perhaps 20 to 25 mph.

Wednesday

Areas north of Interstate 10 will start in the 40s on Wednesday morning, and with northerly winds the “apparent” temperature for parts of Montgomery and Waller counties will be in the 30s. (The record low for Bush Intercontinental Airport for April 21, the city’s official weather station, is 42 degrees set in 1978). The bottom line, is that yes, you may want to bundle up when you head out the door on Wednesday morning. With sunny skies, temperatures should rebound to around 70 degrees, but a northerly wind of 10 to 15 mph will blow all day. Lows Wednesday night will be about 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday night.

Thursday

As high pressure exits to the west, winds will shift to come from the east and then southeast on Thursday. This will return moisture to the atmosphere fairly quickly, and begin to form clouds. Highs will probably top out in the low 70s, but overnight lows will not drop much, likely into the upper 60s for most. A few light showers will be possible south of Houston on Thursday, with slightly better chances overnight.

Friday

Showers and some thunderstorms are likely on Friday. Moisture levels in the atmosphere will support moderate to heavy rainfall for some locations, and there will be enough instability for thunderstorms to develop. It’s a little too early to have much confidence in details, but the most likely time period for this heavier rain will come from around noon on Friday into early Saturday. As for accumulations, I’d guess most areas will see 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall, with the potential for higher totals north of Interstate 10. This forecast will definitely need fine-tuning in the days ahead. Highs will otherwise be in the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Rains should end on Saturday morning, likely before sunrise for most of us as a weak front moves into the region. This should help to clear out skies and push highs on Saturday into the mid-80s. Lows will drop to around 60 degrees on Saturday night. Sunday and Monday will probably be similar in regard to temperatures, with mostly sunny skies.