Eric Berger

Storms have pulsed up overnight north of the Houston area, particularly in the Lake Livingston area, close to where a stationary front is located over Texas. This front will eventually slog its way down to Houston and off the coast, but in the meantime our region will see intermittent rainfall, some of which could be heavy. We do not have significant flooding concerns. Lovely late spring weather will move in later on Wednesday, after the front moves offshore.

Tuesday

It’s very warm this morning, with lows only getting down to about 80 degrees for some locations in Houston. As the front slowly moves south, I think we’ll see decent rain chances across the area north of Interstate 10, but showers will likely remain mostly scattered until tonight. This will leave us with a mostly cloudy day, therefore, and highs in the upper 80s. Winds out of the southeast may gust up to 25 mph.

Tuesday night and Wednesday

This is a difficult rainfall forecast, because I think some areas will see no rainfall over the next two days, while some isolated parts of the Houston metro area pick up 5 inches, or more. Most areas will probably see about 1 inch. As a general rule, I’d expect the potential for heavy rainfall to be greatest north of Interstate 10 through about midnight, and shift more toward the coast on Wednesday morning.

The potential for heavy rain should end during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, and any lingering showers should end by late afternoon. Daytime highs likely will climb only into the 70s, and lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night. While not exactly cool, this (and Thursday night) may nonetheless be the coolest weather Houston sees until September, at least.

Thursday and Friday

Houston will see splendid weather to end the work week, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, drier air, and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows will drop to around 60 degrees on Thursday night, and into the mid-60s on Friday night.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday should be a pretty nice day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s. While I can’t entirely rule out some spotty showers, right now I think we’ll stay dry. A disturbance will bring a healthy chance of showers to the region on Sunday and Sunday night, but I’m not too confident about the details. Highs will return to the mid-80s, and I think we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds when it’s not raining. Much of next week looks fairly wet, with healthy rain chances most days. Again, details to come on that.

May has started out fairly warm for Houston. The city recorded its first 90-degree day May 3, and although the region recorded a few cooler nights, most days have seen highs in the upper 80s. This is the time of year when cool fronts start to become really scarce, and the heat and humidity of summer in Houston begin to assert themselves. However, I’m happy to report that the region will experience at least one more decent front this spring.

Monday

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning across much of the region as a cold front remains stalled out north of the Houston metro area. The front won’t move much today, so most of Houston will continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region, with slightly higher chances north of Interstate 10. But for the most part, a capping inversion should limit activity. Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid-70s for most.

Tuesday

The front may slide a little closer to the Houston area on Tuesday, and this will trigger somewhat better rain chances. Most parts of Houston probably will see at least a sprinkle on Tuesday, with some areas getting perhaps a couple of tenths of an inch of rain. There is a slight chance for some heavier rainfall for areas north of Houston, such as College Station or Huntsville. Skies will otherwise be cloudy, with highs in the mid-80s. Overnight lows will depend upon the progression of the front, which will begin pushing toward the coast on Tuesday night.

Wednesday

The region will see widespread showers and some thunderstorms on Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front slogs its way through the region. I don’t feel overly confident in the rain accumulation forecast, but it seems likely that much of Houston and surrounding areas will see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with showers likely ending on Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will be around 80 degrees, and lows Wednesday night should drop into the lower 60s.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the week looks glorious, with drier air likely filtering in behind the front. Look for high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, sunny skies, and overnight lows in the 60s. This is very fine weather for mid-May.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is not yet locked in. I think we’ll continue to see partly to mostly sunny skies in the wake of the front, with highs in the low 80s on Saturday, and mid-80s on Sunday. Dewpoints will rise as the onshore flow resumes. We can’t entirely rule out rain showers, but overall chances look fairly low at this point.

Well, it had to happen eventually. On Monday the high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport, the city’s official weather station, hit 90 degrees. For me, this represents the beginning of summer, at least psychologically. Thankfully, since this is May, we’ll probably still see a couple of more moderate fronts to bring some drier air into the region, including one later today. In terms of climatology, on average, the city’s first 90-degree day comes around the beginning of May, so we’re right on schedule this year.

Tuesday

The aforementioned front will arrive in central Houston around noon, and should push off the coast during the late afternoon hours. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, and some of these could be briefly intense. However, the dynamics for stronger storms are much more favorable to our east, over Louisiana. Probably about half of the Houston region will see rain, with totals of one to two tenths of an inch of rain for most.

After highs reach the mid-80s, beneath mostly cloudy skies today, lows will drop into the low 60s overnight. Winds will blow out of the north at about 10 mph overnight, continuing to bring drier air into the region.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

As high pressure settles over the upper Texas Gulf coast we will see a string of mostly sunny days with pleasantly dry air. Look for highs in the mid-80s, and lows generally in the 60s. These will be mornings and evenings to really savor the outdoors.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The onshore flow will resume this weekend, but right now the most likely outcome will simply be an uptick in cloud cover, rather than any meaningful rain chances. Highs will depend on how much sunshine breaks through, but I suspect both days will likely reach the upper 80s, with warm nights.

Beyond the weekend the forecast may see additional warming—back to the 90s, perhaps?—into Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances start to tick up by Tuesday or so, but there’s no clear signal in the models for what that really means other than departing high pressure will make the atmosphere less stable.

Before jumping into the forecast for the week ahead, I want to look back at the heavy rains the region received—or in some cases did not receive—to illustrate the perils of Gulf coast precipitation prediction. As you may recall, we predicted widespread variations in rain totals, but said some areas faced a Stage 2 flood alert on our scale. This essentially means we thought parts of Houston would see flash flooding, with mostly localized effects. With that in mind, here are the three-day rainfall totals from the storms:

The first thing I notice on the rainfall map is an extremely tight rainfall gradient. Essentially, if you lived southeast or east of Houston outside the Sam Houston Tollway you saw 2 inches of rain, or less. You might have wondered what the fuss was about with our flood scale. By contrast, a mere 50 miles away, a large swath from Lake Jackson to Sugar Land saw 6 to 12 inches of rainfall. This would have caused significant flooding problems had it set up just a little bit to the northeast, over the metro Houston area. Anyway, in the end, our forecast was pretty good. But if you lived in Galveston, you probably thought we oversold the event. And if you live in Needville, perhaps we undersold it. This is why flood forecasting is extremely difficult across such a large area.

Overall, despite the dreary Saturday that cost many of you weekend plans, this was a beneficial event. We had a dry spring across the region and are about the enter a period of time when 90-degree days are common, and soils dry out more quickly. Before this weekend’s rain, some southern parts of our region were already in an extreme drought (see map below), with large swaths north and south of Harris County in a severe drought. These rains will take a bite out of that drought.

Ok, now that the rains have passed, and we’ve talked a bit about them, let’s jump into the forecast for the week ahead. All in all, it’s pretty nice for the first week of May.

Monday

Today will be a warm one, especially if this morning’s widespread clouds break and skies clear a bit this afternoon. High temperatures have yet to officially reach 90 degrees this year, but could do so this afternoon at Bush Intercontinental Airport as warm air moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly winds will gust up to 20 mph. Monday night will be warm again, with lows in the 70s and high dewpoints.

Tuesday

A modest front will arrive on Tuesday to bring some relief. It looks like a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front’s passage, but rain accumulations overall look fairly slight. The front should reach the central part of the region by around noon, and push off the coast during the afternoon. Winds will turn northerly in the wake of the front, with lows dropping into the 60s Tuesday night.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

It’s May, so our weather is not going to become cold after this front passes. But we should see a nice influx of dry air to make for a pleasant end of the week. These three days will likely be mostly sunny, with highs in the low 80s, and lows in the low- to mid-60s, generally. Enjoy the dry air, as there won’t be all that much of it left before summer arrives.

Saturday and Sunday

A returning southerly flow should make for a warmer weekend, with skies turning partly to perhaps mostly cloudy. Highs will likely return to the mid- to upper-80s with some slight rain chances. This should set the stage for even warmer conditions next week.