Eric Berger

Good morning. As our wet pattern continues we’re in for another rainy 24 hours across the Houston region. But these moderate to heavy showers should fall mostly on the beneficial side of impacts, helping to blunt our emerging drought, rather than provoking significant flooding. Therefore we are lowering our Flood Scale alert to Stage 1.

The primary area of concern today and tonight will be areas southwest and south of Houston, closer to the upper-level low that has been responsible for this wet pattern. Areas south of Interstate 10 could see an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain today, with isolated higher totals, while areas north of there should see less. Some parts of the region may see a break in the showers later this afternoon before a final slug of rainfall this evening and overnight. Rain showers should end by sunrise on Sunday, or shortly thereafter.

Our region’s bayous and waterways should be able to handle these kinds of rains, but under slow-moving storms we may still see some streets briefly flood. Bear that in mind if you venture out far from home today. If you’re holding out hope for outdoor activity this weekend, Sunday should be a good bet. I expect skies will turn at least partly sunny during the afternoon hours, with highs in the mid-80s.

If this forecast changes, we’ll update accordingly.

The most intense storms that developed early Friday morning have been winding down as we approach the middle of the day, and this general weakening trend should continue through the afternoon.

For most of us, the rains have been more than manageable so far, with 1 to 2 inches across much of the region. But areas north and northwest of central Houston, including northern Waller County and western Montgomery County, have received 4 to 6 inches. While bayous remain mostly within their banks, these rains have saturated soils in the region.

Given the unpredictability of this kind of weather system, we still have lots of questions about the forecast. As a best guess, the next area to watch later today will be the Matagorda Bay region, and the potential for storms that develop there to migrate into the Houston area overnight and on Saturday.

Matt did an excellent job of summarizing things in this morning’s post, but the bottom line is that we still expect a situation where some area roadways may see high water during heavy rains. However, we’re not concerned about flooding of homes and businesses at this time, and think bayous are well positioned to handle these rains. For this reason we remain solidly in a Stage 2 flood alert, and don’t anticipate the need to increase this.

There may be some let up in storms on Saturday afternoon or evening, before a final round of storms pulses through the area on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Again, we think this will be mostly manageable for the area’s floodways, but you should be aware of the potential for moderate travel disruptions through Sunday morning.

We will post our update no later than 9 pm CT on Friday evening.

Good evening. We’re getting closer to the first of two rounds of potentially heavy rainfall for the Houston area, and we’ve seen enough data from the high resolution models to raise our concerns. Therefore we’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for the greater Houston region. Such a Flood Scale alert, effectively, means to expect the potential for street flooding in the Houston area.

The first period of heavy rainfall will begin after midnight tonight across the Houston area, and the atmosphere is moist enough to produce rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, which can begin to back up roadways. Conditions for heavy rainfall will persist into the morning hours on Friday, and possibly into the early afternoon. Our general expectation for rainfall totals during this first round is 1 to 2 inches for most areas, but there will very likely be some bullseyes that receive up to 5 inches or more.

Then we expect to see something of a lull in rainfall from Friday evening into Saturday morning, before round two begins. Storms will probably get spun back up from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, when there may be another 1 to 2 inches of widespread rainfall, with more bullseyes. This is all being driven by a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system that is difficult to predict.

We’ve issued this Flood Scale alert tonight, because we think some areas may see heavy rainfall before sunrise on Friday morning. Matt will have a full update for you early on Friday, and will reevaluate our Flood Scale status at that time. Then, of course, we’ll keep tabs on this system over the weekend as needed.

Good morning. The forecast for this weekend continues to evolve and now looks considerably wetter than we anticipated a couple of days ago. This is a dynamic forecast with the kind of weather system that forecasters struggle with. So please be patient with our rainfall predictions over the next few days.

Thursday

Fairly vigorous storms associated with a cold front moved across Central Texas last night, but they are weakening as they move westward toward Houston this morning. So is the front. As a result, today is likely to be warm, with highs in the low 80s, and mostly cloudy skies for much of the region. There will be some scattered showers, but the better rain chances will come after midnight as the front sags into the area and stalls. Low temperatures will not fall below 70 degrees.

Friday

Cloudy skies and showers should limit highs to the upper 70s. Rains should become more widespread on Friday morning across the region, with accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches likely throughout the day. The storms for Friday through the weekend will be driven largely by an upper-level low pressure system, and these are notoriously difficult to predict in terms of rainfall output. This can lead to a boom-or-bust forecast. Some areas of the region may see very little rain, and others enough to flood streets with slow-moving storms. So bear that in mind with regard to this forecast, and the potential for change. Matt and I will be watching this closely, and updating the forecast as needed and as our confidence improves. Lows Friday night will again drop to around 70 degrees as at least some slight to moderate rain chances persist.

Saturday and Sunday

The upper-level low will move more directly over head this weekend and continue to drive the potential for showers on Saturday morning, and then again Saturday night into Sunday. Depending upon how much rainfall the region gets on Friday, these additional rounds of showers may lead to some flash flooding of streets. Overall accumulations from Thursday morning through Sunday will likely be in the range of 2 to 3 inches of rain for most areas, but there almost certainly will be higher bullseyes.

So what does this mean for weekend plans? I know the Bike MS Texas is on Saturday, and at least light to moderate rain is likely along the route. Will there be thunderstorms? I’m less certain about that but it’s a possibility. The bottom line is that, after a string of sunny weekends with sedate weather, we’ll need to pay attention to Mother Nature this weekend. Sunday afternoon offers the best opportunity for clearing skies and lower rain chances, if that helps.

Next week

Rains end and temperatures rise to start next week, with highs likely reaching the upper 80s to even 90 degrees for inland parts of the area. Our next front could push through by late Tuesday or Wednesday, and let’s hope this one makes a clean passage into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than getting hung up over Houston. Right now that seems the most likely scenario.