Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston received its first round of mostly light to moderate rainfall on Tuesday evening and during the overnight hours, and we’ll have another good chance again today, and then again later on Friday. We should also be done with 80-degree days for awhile after today, as well.

Wednesday

We’re still awaiting the arrival of a weak front this morning, but instability associated with this system is continuing to generate showers with some embedded thunderstorms. I’m afraid there is really no consistency in the high resolution models for where rainfall will be greatest today, and my confidence on accumulations is low. Most areas will see between 0 and 1 inch of rain through tonight, but we can’t rule out a few bullseyes with greater totals. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies. The front will sag southward into the region later on, reaching The Woodlands around midnight, and pushing down to the coast around sunrise.

Thursday

Things probably will calm down somewhat on Thursday, but we can’t be sure the rain is entirely going to go away. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and with a mostly light northeasterly wind, highs will likely shakeout somewhere in the mid-70s. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-60s.

Friday

This will be another cloudy day, with highs likely slotting somewhere into the 70s. The first half of the day should be fairly sedate before rain chances start to increase during the afternoon and evening hours with the arrival of another cold front overnight. This will again bring a period of showers with embedded thunderstorms into the region, and again I think accumulations will range from 0 to 1 inches for most areas. Lows Friday night will be dependent on the front’s position.

Saturday

The front should reach the coast by around sunrise, or shortly after, on Saturday. This will usher drier air into the region and should preclude all but a few scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Things should get fairly breezy after the front blows through, with gusts of 25 or 30 mph possible during the daytime. Temperatures will drop down to about 50 degrees on Saturday night in Houston, with colder conditions inland, and a bit warmer along the coast.

Sunday and beyond

Skies will start to clear out some on Sunday, and highs will likely reach the upper 60s to 70 degrees. With lesser winds, this should be a fine spring day, and certainly one of our last days this cool, with sunshine, this season. I think we’ll remain in a pattern of highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s through the early part of next week before a warming trend begins. Summer is not too far away, so this will offer a nice blast of spring before things turn perma-humid for us.

Houston’s weather will remain unsettled for much of this week, and the overall forecast has turned somewhat wetter. We now expect most of the region to see 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rain between now and the weekend, a healthy total that will help to blunt the upper Texas coast’s emerging drought. Each day will likely see at least low rain chances until Sunday.

Tuesday

A weak front will approach the Houston region from the west this morning, and this should trigger some shower and possibly thunderstorm development. Some of these storms, which will be scattered in nature, could become severe later this evening and tonight for areas east of Interstate 45 (see NOAA map below). With the front hanging up west of Houston, I expect most of us will see highs today in the low- to mid-80s to go along with cloudy skies. Overnight lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

The front will slowly move across Houston on Wednesday, and this will trigger a healthy chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Rain chances likely will be best in central Houston and near the coast as the front sags into city on Wednesday night and pushes offshore on Thursday morning. Highs for most of the area will be about 80 degrees on Wednesday, and lows dropping to around 60 degrees behind the frontal passage.

Thursday and Friday

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy to end the work week, with highs in the low 70s in the wake of the front. I think rain chances will take a step back from Thursday morning through Friday morning, before a stronger front approaches Houston. This front, combined with atmospheric moisture, will allow for a pretty healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Again, we’re not anticipating a washout, but here’s hoping our drying soils get a good soaking.

Saturday and Sunday

A slight chance of showers will linger into Saturday afternoon for the region, but mostly we should just be dealing with cloudy skies. Highs on Saturday will likely only reach around 70 degrees, with much of the region (except for the coast) dropping into the 50s on Saturday night. Skies should clear out on Sunday, which at this point has the look of an absolutely stellar day with mostly sunny skies and highs of around 70 degrees. Next week looks drier, in terms of precipitation.

After an absolutely spectacular Sunday, in which dewpoints dropped into the 40s and skies turned azure, we’ve got more reasonably good news about Houston’s weather. In this case, we’re talking about rainfall. The region’s soils are thirsty, and we think much of the area probably will accumulate 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain this week, although the details remain a bit fuzzy.

Monday

Skies will turn partly cloudy today as the onshore wind continues to nudge atmospheric moisture levels upward. At the surface, this will manifest in winds of 5 to 10 mph out of the southeast. High temperatures will peak in the low- to mid-80s, and much of the city likely won’t fall below 70 degrees Monday night, with plenty of humidity to go around.

Tuesday

Some scattered, light showers will be possible beginning Tuesday morning beneath mostly cloudy skies. We don’t anticipate any significant accumulations, and highs will likely again reach the mid-80s. Expect another warm night with lows around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

A weak front will sag into the region, and this will bring us a better chance of rainfall. I think most of the area probably will see at least some precipitation. This will not be a washout, to be sure, but enough to put at least a small dent in the region’s emerging drought. The weak front should drop lows into the 60s on Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday

Skies will remain mostly cloudy to end the work week, and we can probably anticipate highs in the 70s and lows somewhere in the 60s. Another, stronger front will likely arrive sometime on Friday or Saturday, and this should bring another round of showers.

Saturday and Sunday

I’m cautiously optimistic about the weekend, which looks positively spring-like. Any lingering showers will probably end on Saturday, and we should see sunnier weather on Sunday. Very tentatively, I’d predict highs will be in the low 70s for both weekend days, and nights could range anywhere from upper 40s for inland areas to low 60s along the coast. This front could have a little more oomph, perhaps keeping the region cooler and drier heading into next week, but that’s dangerously close to speculation on my part.

Good morning. The most reputable hurricane season forecasting service, led by Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University, has released its first outlook for the 2021 Atlantic season. The forecast calls for above normal activity (see table below) with 17 named storms instead of the more typical 12; eight hurricanes instead of six; and about 50 percent total more activity, in terms of the duration and intensity of tropical systems, as measured by accumulated cyclone energy.

This outlook is consistent with other predictions, already released, in calling for a busier than normal season. What I like about Klotzbach’s forecast is that he’s very clear about his methodology—using a combination of statistical modeling, and historical correlations between Spring-time weather conditions and hurricane activity later in the year. Klotzbach also has a reasonable track record.

With that said, seasonal hurricane forecasts are far from perfect. I think, generally, we can expect a busier Atlantic season, but we’re almost certainly not going to see a brute of a year like 2020. Moreover, the chance of the Houston area being directly affected by serious tropical weather (in terms of floods, winds, or surge) is pretty low. Historically, the region only sees a significant storm about once a decade or so. Therefore, while it certainly is time to begin planning for the 2021 Atlantic season, I very much do not want you to start worrying or obsessing about it. Matt and I will, of course, be here every step of the way, and we’ll be releasing a new app before the June 1 beginning of the season to keep you informed.

Friday

A lovely weekend awaits Houston, but first we’ve got to navigate the possibility of some storms later today and tonight, much like we saw a rogue thunderstorm develop near College Station on Thursday night. Highs today will reach the mid-80s, with generally cloudy skies. Winds will be noticeable out of the south, gusting to about 20 mph. An approaching front will drive the potential for showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight, and their extent will depend on whether a capping inversion breaks.

Most likely, areas south of Interstate 10 probably won’t see much, if any rainfall. And, for the most part, accumulations in the Houston region north of I-10 will be perhaps a tenth of an inch. The best chances for severe weather lie far to the north of Houston, in the Lufkin and Longview areas. But as Thursday night’s storm showed, there is plenty of energy and instability in the atmosphere to generate thunderstorms and hail. So we’ll need to be wary tonight, and if the forecast changes significantly we’ll update accordingly.

Saturday

The front itself should push into Houston around sunrise on Saturday, with drier air following in its wake. As a result we should see clearing skies and highs around 80 degrees. Winds will be a bit gusty, out of the north at about 20 mph. Overnight lows should drop into the 50s for inland areas, with 60s along the coast.

Sunday

Another pleasant, sunny day, with highs in the low- to mid-80s and dry air. As winds shift to come from the southeast later in the day, this will allow for low temperatures to be about 5 degrees warmer than Saturday night.

Next week

I’m hesitant to say too much about the forecast for next week, as it now looks as though we’ll see a succession of weak fronts and disturbances that may, or may not push into Houston. In the end, I’d guess that next week ends up looking a lot like this week. The problem as we get deeper into spring is that we could really use some rainfall. All I can offer you is this: the global models are hinting at better rain chances (and accumulations) around the period of April 16 or 17. An inch or two of rainfall would go a long way given that parts of the region are already in a moderate to severe drought, and the hottest part of the year is yet to come. But I have no idea whether those model forecasts will verify.

We’ll have all the details on that come Monday. Until then, enjoy your lovely weather this weekend, Houston!