Eric Berger

Good morning. The radar is quiet across the region, and likely will remain so this morning. However, the overall pattern remains favorable for rainfall this week, likely culminating in widespread showers and heavy rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. For this reason, we have instituted a Stage 1 flood alert that will run through the weekend. This is the lowest alert on our flood scale, and means there is the potential for nuisance street flooding.

Wednesday

Skies should be partly sunny today, and this will allow temperatures to warm into the mid- or upper-80s later on. In terms of rain, we expect a cluster of storms to approach the region from the west this afternoon. The question is how long they hold together, and whether they migrate all the way to the coast where a capping inversion should be a bit stronger. Therefore areas west of Interstate 45 and north of I-10 have the best chance for rain this evening through about midnight, and there could be some briefly heavy showers dropping an inch or two of rain over parts of the area. Rain chances fall back late tonight.

Thursday

This will be another day with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop, with briefly heavy rain across the metro area. About half of the area will probably see some rainfall. As skies will be mostly cloudy, temperatures should remain in the mid-80s on Thursday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As an upper-level low pressure system moves closer to our region this weekend, we’ll see increasingly favorable conditions for widespread rainfall beginning Friday. As usual, the details are difficult to pin down, but these kinds of atmospheric conditions typically produce heavy rains that can quickly back up streets. If you’re thinking about weekend plans, our best guess is that the period most likely to see showers and thunderstorms will run from mid-day Saturday through Sunday morning. But rain chances will be fairly high from Friday through Sunday, and most of the area will likely see accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the low 80s.

Next week

I’d love to tell you that by Monday we’ll see plenty of sunshine, but the reality is that we’ll probably see a continuation of healthy rain chances—in the 50 percent range—through the middle of next week. The overall pattern will then likely turn drier by the end of next week, with more sunshine and temperatures likely approaching the 90s. It is June, after all.

Good morning. It’s June 1, which for us marks the beginning of summer and the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The next four months are the hottest of the year—with temperatures peaking in August. However this year we’ve had a slower build into summer, with average temperatures about 1 degree cooler than normal in May. This was due, in large measure, to most of the area seeing rain most days during the second half of the month.

This cooler-but-wetter trend looks to continue into at least the first week of June. Overall, our forecast for the week ahead, including next weekend, look quite wet. The combination of a moist atmosphere, feeding off the Gulf of Mexico, and a series of slow-moving atmospheric disturbances will drive rain chances upward through the weekend, at least.

On average, much of the region will probably receive on the order of 4 to 6 inches of rainfall, with some areas receiving more. Over an entire week, this is manageable of course. What we’re more concerned about are areas receiving that much rain in a couple of hours, and causing flooding problems on roadways. Because of this potential for flooding, and our already sodden soils, we’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our flood scale for the entire Houston region, and this is likely to remain in effect through at least Sunday.

Tuesday

The first opportunity for rain comes today, as a band of storms moves from west to east across the region. These storms produced very intense rains overnight in areas far west and north of the Houston metro area, but appear to be weakening as they approach our region and move through today. While most areas will get less, a few parts of Houston may see 1 to 3 inches of rain today. Highs will top out in the low- to mid-80s with the persistent cloud cover.

Wednesday

This will be another day of fairly widespread showers, with half or more of the region seeing at least some rainfall amidst clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will again be moderated by clouds, topping out in the mid-80s. These two days will probably be something like appetizers for the main event later this week.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

The pattern will become even more favorable for heavy rainfall by around Thursday, when a slow-moving upper-level disturbance begins to directly impact our weather. With these slow moving systems we are concerned about the potential for training storms and flooding. While it’s difficult to say much about each of these individual days, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall each day, along with mostly cloudy skies. This will help to moderate temperatures of course, and we expect to remain in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. If you have outdoor activities planned for the period ahead, please know that you should definitely have a backup plan.

Next week

When will Houston emerge from this wet mess? We don’t have a confident answer for you, but for now I think the pattern will begin to moderate about one week from today. Until that time you should keep an umbrella handy, keep an eye on the radar, and be weather aware. We’ll be here.

Now that we’re completely past the heavy rainfall, I want to take a look back at our totals since the beginning on May 16. From that day through Wednesday, most weather stations in the Houston region recorded at least a trace of rain, and often more than 1 inch a day. Here are the 14-day totals for the upper Texas coast. Areas in white show 20 inches of accumulation, Barney purple is more than 10 inches.

In addition to ending our region’s emerging drought, another effect of these rains has been cooler-than-normal temperatures for the month of May. Our monthly average temperature is running about 1 degree below normal, and our average high has been in the low 80s. This will soon change as June is around the corner, but it has been kind of nice.

Thursday

Houston enjoyed sunny weather on Wednesday, and that should continue today with a mix of sunshine and clouds. A few very scattered showers will be possible this afternoon as highs crank up into the upper 80s, but the vast majority of us will remain dry. Overnight temperatures will be muggy, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Friday

Conditions should be similar on Friday, with continued partly sunny skies and highs pushing into the upper 80s. Sometime beginning Friday evening, or possibly not until the overnight hours into Saturday morning, rain chances will start to increase in response to an upper-level disturbance.

Saturday

Said rain chances will likely peak on Saturday morning, although we can’t be sure about timing. Overall accumulations should be higher north of Interstate 10, with 0.5 to 1 inches of rain, whereas most areas closer to the coast will likely see less than one-half inch. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. After the rains I expect at least partly sunny skies Saturday afternoon as a (very) weak front pushes into Houston and off the coast. Highs will be in the mid-80s.

Sunday

Right now I have Sunday as the pick of the litter for the weekend. With a smidge of drier air, partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the mid-80s, this should be a really nice day for outdoor activities. Rain chances should be near zero.

Memorial Day and next week

Memorial Day should see a continuation of Sunday’s weather, albeit with perhaps a bit more humidity. For now I’d expect highs in the mid-80s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Some rain chances return on Tuesday, but for now our confidence in the forecast at that point is pretty low, and it may be Wednesday or Thursday before any rain really returns to the forecast. Most of next week will probably see highs in the upper 80s.

We’re done with the organized, heavy rainfall. Really. We may still see some scattered showers today, but we’re heading toward sunnier skies and warmer weather. The forecast for the weekend remains somewhat in flux, with a chance of showers on Saturday, but overall it looks reasonably nice for the Memorial Day period.

Wednesday

The radar is quiet across the region this morning, and moisture levels have fallen. We still may see a few scattered, short-lived showers pop up this afternoon, as temperatures approach their highs in the mid- to upper-80s, but I think most of us will stay dry. Skies will see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with lows tonight dropping into the low 70s.

Thursday

As the atmosphere stabilizes, and high pressure expands westward into Texas, our rain chances will drop even lower on Thursday to less than 10 percent. With partly to mostly sunny skies, highs should climb into the upper 80s with only light southerly winds. Lows Thursday night will again be warm, only dropping into the low 70s.

Friday

With partly sunny skies, highs on Friday may work themselves toward 90 degrees for some inland parts of the metro area on Friday. The big question is how far a weak front will get on Friday night, and what that means for our weather this weekend. For Friday, this will bring a slight chance of showers during the afternoon and evening hours for areas north of Interstate 10.

Saturday, Sunday, and Memorial Day

This front, and a passing disturbance, will probably drive more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday morning as it pushes closer to the Houston area. In terms of accumulations, I think we’re talking tenths of an inch for most, with the better rain chances north of Interstate 10. I don’t think the showers will persist all day, as the disturbance driving them should move on.

The question, again, is what happens to the front. I think it will get shoved to the coast, of not off. If this happens we can probably expect partly sunny skies on Saturday afternoon, with highs in the mid-80s. Sunday would be rather pleasant, with drier air and highs in the mid-80s and sunny skies. Some clouds may return for Memorial Day. Rain chances look low for Sunday and Monday, as high pressure fills in, and don’t really return until the middle of next week.