Eric Berger

Matt and I are thrilled to share with you that Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner has proclaimed today, June 8, 2021, as Space City Weather Day in Houston, Texas. We’re grateful to Houston City Council Member Abbie Kamin for nominating the site for this recognition, and we thank the mayor and entire city council for this honor.

Why do we care about this? Well, neither Matt nor myself were born in Houston. I arrived here in 1997, and Matt about a decade later. Both of us have made our homes here, begun to raise our families here, and consider Houston our home. We are just so happy to be able give something back to this community that has given so much to us.

Tuesday

With the departure of last week’s rain showers, Houston’s weather is turning warmer and more humid, with dewpoints in the mid- to upper 70s. This means that sticky summer conditions are here to stay. Perhaps it is appropriate, then, that Space City Weather Day will be hot and humid.

Mostly cloudy skies this morning should give way to partly sunny conditions this afternoon, with highs in the low 90s. There is a slight chance, perhaps about 20 percent, of rain for areas north of Interstate 10. But yeah, probably not. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, and lows tonight will not drop below 80 degrees for some areas.

Wednesday

With high pressure building and a capping inversion in place, rain chances should end completely on Wednesday, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs likely in the low- to mid-90s. This will herald the arrival of summer proper in Houston. Overnight conditions will again provide little relief.

Thursday and Friday

The story remains the same. As you probably know, summer in Houston beneath a ridge of high pressure means warm weather, sunny skies, and ample humidity. Highs probably will settle somewhere in the low- to mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

We will likely see more of the same this weekend. Saturday, almost certainly, will be sunny and hot. That seems the probable outcome for Sunday as well, although the forecast is made a little uncertain with the potential disruption of our high pressure system and slight chance of showers. However, when we fall under these kinds of sunny and hot summertime patterns they tend to stick around for awhile.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to highlight the possibility of a tropical depression forming in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and it seems that some fragment of this tropical energy will eventually track toward the Gulf of Mexico next week. This may spin something up in the Bay of Campeche about a week or 10 days from now, perhaps a tropical depression, but it’s not something we’re overly concerned with for now. Although it may eventually lead to higher rain chances next week, in forecasting terms, this is a long way off and we just can’t say anything more.

Good morning. The threat of widespread, heavy rainfall has ended, and Houston will now enter a much more summer-like pattern. Looking back at last week, the map below shows seven-day rainfall totals, which varied widely across the region. Much of the area saw between 3 and 10 inches of rain, which periodically led to street flooding under the stronger storms. This is more or less the definition of a Stage 1 flood event for us. We’re glad to move beyond it.

Monday

This morning has started out cloudy, but we should see more sunshine as the day goes on, and as a result high temperatures will likely reach about 90 degrees for much of the area. A few scattered, strong storms are possible mainly north of Interstate 10 later this morning and during the afternoon, but they should progress from west to east fairly quickly. Otherwise, it will be breezy, with winds out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, and gusting higher. Lows tonight will be sticky, in the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As high pressure builds this week, we’ll eventually reach a period of mostly sunny skies. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday the high won’t yet be fully established, so we’ll retain some slight rain chances—perhaps about 20 percent—each day. Otherwise we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, along with highs of around 90 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Right now I think both of these days will yield mostly sunny skies and warm summertime temperatures, with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances should be low to near-zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather for the coming weekend is a bit uncertain as a weak front will drift into Texas, and may make some progress toward our region. At this point I doubt it will have much effect on our temperatures, but it may allow for the development of scattered showers. At this point, I’d bet on hot and sunny this weekend, but I’m far from confident in that outlook. Stay tuned.

Tropics Outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season began a week ago, and we’re seeing some suggestions in the global models of potential activity in the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week. While this certainly seems possible, it is beyond the ability of any model to accurately depict what will happen that far out. My guess would be some sort of tropical depression may move into or form in the southern Gulf of Mexico, rather than anything significantly more organized.

However, it’s that time of year, and we’ll keep an eye on things for you because the Gulf is fairly warm already. In return, we ask that you not bite when someone on social media shares a single run, of a single model, depicting a hurricane in the Gulf ten or more days from now. That kind of information is just not credible and usually intended to stoke fear.

A few days ago we anticipated that the worst of the rains would hit Houston this weekend. However, that no longer is likely to be the case as the biggest threat has begun to shift east of the Houston metro area over Louisiana. Nevertheless, we are going to maintain our Stage 1 flood alert through Sunday, as it will still be possible for localized areas to see heavy rainfall and some brief street flooding this weekend. But to be clear, most of the Houston region will not experience this.

Friday offers a case in point. Whereas most of Houston saw a few drops or perhaps one-tenth of an inch of rain, communities such as Bacliff, San Leon, and Kemah right along the west side of Galveston Bay saw 6 inches or more, which quickly flooded streets and even a few homes. There is the potential for this kind of isolated storm again today. It’s the classic Houston situation, you know? Some areas will see sunshine and dry roads, and a few miles away storms may be training.

The bottom line is that you should keep an umbrella handy this weekend. Rain chances are fairly high across the region, although we expect most of you to receive 1 inch or less through Sunday. We’re increasingly confident the heavy rainfall threat will end by Sunday evening, after which we’ll transition to a more summer-like pattern. Unless this forecast changes dramatically, we’ll see you on Monday morning.

Strong showers and thunderstorms developed on Wednesday evening, quickly dropping 2 to 3 inches of rain over parts of northeast Houston, near Humble. Other areas of the city also saw briefly strong storms with incredibly loud thunder. We still anticipate this heavy rainfall becoming more widespread this weekend, and due to the potential for street flooding we remain under a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire area.

Thursday

Today will be similar to Wednesday in that the daytime should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, allowing high temperatures to get into the upper 80s. As the temperature rises, we’ll see an increase in rain chances this afternoon. Rains will likely start somewhere near or just south of the Interstate 10 corridor, and then slowly lift north. I suspect a few areas will again see bullseyes of 2 to 3 inches of rain today, with most of the area seeing significantly less. Rain chances get lower after sunset.

Friday

At this point, it looks like conditions will favor more widespread rainfall on Friday, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches for much of the region, and higher isolated totals. Friday begins the period of biggest concern for us with these rains, and it will run through about Monday. As is typical with this kind of system, it can be difficult to predict exactly when and where the heaviest rains are going to fall even a few hours beforehand.

So what is this system? Essentially, a slow-moving upper-level low will move across the mountains of northern Mexico into southern Texas on Friday. Then it will meander across the state, with disturbances rotating counter-clockwise around its base. As it does so, the upper-level low and its associated disturbances will draw the Gulf of Mexico’s ample moisture into the coast, and this will set up a wet pattern that we won’t break out of for several days.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

This setup will generate periods of heavy rainfall along the Texas coast this weekend and into Monday. With access to the Gulf moisture, these storms will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour, and this quickly backs up streets. It looks like the peak of activity will come from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, but again, confidence with predicting specificity this far out is low. Bottom line: prepare for heavy rain this weekend. We expect widespread accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with higher localized accumulations. Matt and I will be watching all of this closely to keep you informed.

Next week

So when does this mess move on? Rain chances will start to slacken by Tuesday or Wednesday, and we think building high pressure will shut the spigot off by later in the week. Probably. Hopefully.