Eric Berger

Good morning. We are into the final week of August, and this brings both good and bad news. The good news is that we’re much closer to the end of summer than the beginning. Based upon our climate normals, the warmest stretch of summer in Houston lasts from July 31 through August 8, when the average temperature is 85.8 degrees. (That’s simply an average of the daily high and low temperature). We are, reasonably, about one month from when we can expect fall’s first significant cool front.

The bad news is that we still have about a full month of summer left, and it coincides with the absolute peak of hurricane season for Texas. Although we see no immediate threats to the greater Houston region (read more below), the next few weeks do look active for the Gulf of Mexico. So we’re asking you to hang on for one more month, after which we’ll escape the heat of summer and the main threat of tropical activity.

Monday

Monday will see a continuation of conditions the region experienced over the weekend, which is to say hot and sunny. High temperatures for inland areas could well flirt with 100 degrees, and even coastal areas should be solidly in the low- to mid-90s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with only light southerly winds. This will be a day for care during the hottest, afternoon hours. Overnight lows should be in the upper 70s.

Tuesday

Another hot and sunny day, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. Winds will again be calm.

Wednesday and Thursday

Our overall pattern should begin to change by the middle of the week, as high pressure lifts away from the area. This should bring a few clouds to our skies, and introduce rain chances of perhaps 30 to 40 percent each day during the afternoon hours. This may also help to moderate temperatures slightly, from the upper 90s to mid-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend forecast is far from settled, but for now it appears as though the combination of low pressure and increasing levels of tropical moisture should combine for healthy rain chances, especially by Sunday. For now I’d guess we’ll see highs in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies, and at least a 50 percent chance of rain showers each day. Under some scenarios, heavy rain is possible by Sunday, but that will depend to some extent on tropical development, discussed below.

Tropics

After Tropical Storm Henri moved into the northeastern United States this weekend, there are no active systems over water. However that could change later this week as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center gives this wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next five days.

The global models are generally pretty bullish on this system eventually developing in the Southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and it’s something we’ll be watching closely as it will influence our rain chances this weekend. For now the bulk of these models suggest the storm will come ashore somewhere along the Mexican mainland, south of the Texas border. Although it is far too early to have much confidence in this, such a scenairo would also be unfortunate, give the recent landfall of Hurricane Grace near the resort town of Tecolutla.

After this system, there are hints of more potential activity in the Gulf of Mexico about two weeks from now, which would be consistent with early September. As we said above, the next month is the peak of hurricane season for Texas, so have a plan and be prepared.

Wednesday’s high temperature across much of the metro area, beneath cloudy skies and on-and-off rain showers, peaked at about 90 to 93 degrees for most of us. Temperatures much of the day were in the 80s. While this was not “cool” by any stretch of the imagination, we are definitely bound for much hotter weather. The period from this coming Sunday through Tuesday should bring 100-degree heat for many inland locations.

Thursday

For those still seeking a bit of rainfall, today will be akin to drinking in the last chance saloon. Although atmospheric moisture levels remain fairly elevated, we’ll begin to feel the influence of high pressure expanding into the region. For this reason rain chances will likely be higher—maybe 40 or 50 percent—closer to the coast with lesser chances inland of Interstate 69 and Highway 59. These showers will be hit or miss, but a few isolated areas could pick up a quick inch of rain or so. Skies should otherwise be partly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s, and light southerly winds. Rain chances will drop as the Sun drops to the horizon.

Friday

As high pressure begins to fully assert itself, this should be a warm and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be on the order of 10 to 20 percent. Winds will be light, out of the south and southeast.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be a classic August weekend, with highs in the upper 90s to possibly 100 degrees by Sunday. Skies will be mostly sunny with generally light winds. Please take care outside during the hottest part of the day.

Next week

The heat remains turned up through Tuesday, with the potential for 100 degree days and lots of sunshine. A few more clouds return by Wednesday or Thursday, and as high pressure eases off we might even see some modest rain chances toward the end of next week. But it’s still going to be hot, y’all.

Tropics

The tropics remain more or less the same. Hurricane Grace has made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, will cross the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and make a final landfall along the Mexico mainland on Friday night, likely as a Category 1 hurricane. There is less certainty about Tropical Storm Henri. The forecast models are really struggling with this system, and there is still some question about whether it will affect the northeastern coast of the United States late this weekend. There are no immediate concerns beyond these two storms.

We first released the Space City Weather app a little more than two months ago, and I wanted to give you an update on where we are, and where we hope to go. As a reminder, you can download the app on Apple devices here, and Android devices here. The app is free, and there are no ads, no in-app purchases, and no tracking or hoovering of your personal information.

The App so far

First of all, we could not he happier with the response. More than 75,000 people have downloaded the app on Apple and Android devices since its launch. This is a pretty phenomenal response, and we appreciate your interest. We also appreciate your patience as we know the app launched with bugs on both mobile operating systems. We think we’ve now squashed most of them, so be sure you’ve updated the app on your device to get the latest version. After updating, you can report bugs by emailing us.

Plans for the App in 2022

Since the release of our initial app we have received a lot of feedback and feature requests. And we definitely hear you. To create the initial version of our app we exhausted all of our available funds, with the goal of creating a simple, functional app ready to go in time for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. We delivered that.

Now we are contemplating our next steps. After we hold our site’s annual fundraiser in late October and November, we’ll be able to set a budget for upgrades to the Space City Weather App in 2022. Our initial priority is to work with our developer Hussain Abbasi, to include some of our most requested feature upgrades:

• A better radar: larger, time stamps, improved resolution
• Increased number of locations: I.e. Sugar Land, Tomball, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Baytown, etc.
• An hourly percent chance of rain
• Metric unit option

Then, depending on the—cough, cough—robustness of our fundraiser later this year we hope to include some of these additional upgrades later in 2022:

• Dark mode
• Ability to comment on posts within the app
• Tropical weather tab

Plans for the App beyond 2022

Beyond these, we have ideas for future upgrades. We’re still not yet sure how to implement some of these, and some will require a lot of back-end work. So we want you to know we’re considering these ideas, but don’t have immediate plans to include them:

• Pollen counts
• Barometric pressure and trends
• Portrait/horizontal mode
• Apply watch support
• Apple and Android widgets

As always, thank you for your interest in Space City Weather, and for your kind words about our efforts. Matt and I continue to feel as though it is a privilege to serve you all, and we greatly value the trust you place in us.

This August has been fairly wet by Houston standards, especially in absence of a tropical system to drive widespread showers, but we may soon revert to normal. It looks like we’ll get one more burst of high rain chances today before high pressure begins to assert itself. This will lead to a period of hotter and mostly sunny weather for probably a week or so, with highs eventually pushing into the upper 90s. Would we expect anything different in late August?

Wednesday

Today’s rainfall will be driven by high atmospheric moisture levels in concert with an area of low pressure. This activity should spread inland this morning and last until sunset and the loss of daytime heating. About 75 percent of our area should see rain. Most will see accumuations on the order of 0.5 inch but we cannot rule out a few bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches that may cause temporary street flooding. The better chances for heavy rainfall should be along and southeast of Interstate 69/Highway 59. The rains and partly cloudy skies should limit highs to the low 90s today, with light southeast winds.

Thursday and Friday

These days will be warmer, with mostly sunny skies, and highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will fall back to around 30 percent for both days, which means showers will be more isolated to scattered, and most likely to occur during the afternoon. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast, and may become a little more gusty on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks hot and sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s and mostly sunny skies. We can’t rule out some isolated rain showers, but chances each day are probably 20 percent or less. If you’re headed to the beach, rip currents may be stronger than normal due Grace, which likely will be a hurricane at that time, moving through the Bay of Campeche.

Next week

Frankly most of next week looks hot and sunny, with highs in the upper 90s. I really don’t see much in the way of rain chances returning until the end of next week or so. August will be doing August things.

Tropics

Fred is dissipating over the Appalachian mountains this morning, and bringing heavy rains to West Virginia and Ohio. Grace is nearing hurricane strength, and will likely strike the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night as hurricane. It will then hit the main part of Mexico this weekend, likely near Tampico, as a strong hurricane. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Henri is likely to stay offshore, but may come relatively close to the northeastern United States as a hurricane this weekend.

Things look quiet for a spell after these storms pass.