Eric Berger

In brief: It’s rather cold across the state of Texas this morning, with nearly all of the state in the 30s and 40s outside of The Valley. Because we’re nearing the middle of April, the cold weather will not last, and indeed I don’t think it will get this cold in Texas for the next six months. Expect warmer temperatures for the rest of the week, but high humidity will remain at bay for awhile.

Midway through spring

Spring is by no means over for the greater Houston area, as temperatures outside this morning demonstrate. Pretty much the entire metro area outside of areas far inland (Conroe, 38 degrees) and Galveston (56 degrees) has fallen into the low- to mid-40s this morning. This is by no means extraordinary, as the record low temperature for today in Houston is 35 degrees, set back in 1971.

However, temperatures this morning are still running about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year, and looking ahead at the next two weeks I do not see another strong front in the cards. Therefore, for the urban core of Houston and areas closer to the coast, I expect that this morning may well be the final morning in the 40s of this season. We may not see its like again until October, or even November.

Tuesday

Miracle of miracle, the winds this morning are calm across the region, and are likely to remain so today. With sunny skies we should warm into the mid-70s this afternoon, with continued very dry air. Seriously, today is going to be one of the nicest days of the year, with exceptional weather. Lows tonight in Houston will drop into the lower 50s for most locations. Areas west and north of the city should dip into the upper 40s once again.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be a slightly warmer, and a slightly more humid version of Tuesday. We are talking high temperatures of about 80 degrees, and lows dropping to about 60 degrees on Wednesday night. Winds will have turned to come from the south, at perhaps 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We should see sunny skies throughout the rest of the week, with high temperatures varying between 80 and 85 degrees. A weak front arrives on Friday morning to knock some of the humidity out of the air, but overall with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s the air is going to feel modestly dry. Nights should, generally, fall to around 60 degrees with inland areas a bit cooler and the coast a bit warmer. By Sunday we may see southerly winds become more pronounced, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.

Next week

Next week should be a little bit warmer, with a few more clouds. I think we will be in the 80s for the most part, with nights in the 60s. There will be some humidity, sure, but it won’t feel like Houston humidity can during the depths of the summer. As for rain chances, overall chances are quite low until next Thursday or Friday, at least.

In brief: The word for the next week is tranquil, and there’s just not much to be concerned about as Houston enjoys one of its nicest periods of weather for the year. Winds will finally die down, and humidity should remain low through most of the weekend. Temperatures will, for the most part, be mild.

About those winds

The first week of April has been rather windy. First, we experienced robust onshore winds in response to an inland low pressure system. Then, beginning Saturday, winds turned sharply northward in response to the passage of a front. During the first six days of this month, the average wind speed has exceeded 15 mph, which is about 50 percent higher than normal during April. Every day so far this month has had a wind gust of at least 30 mph, and maximum gusts have exceeded 40 mph on several days.

There has been one benefit of this, however. It has shaken much of the tree pollen, particularly from oaks, down to the ground. We are therefore rapidly nearing the end of tree pollen season. In any case, winds should now die down as Houston’s weather turns more tranquil, and it is possible that we won’t experience a day this week with a gust of 30 mph or higher.

Monday

Temperatures have bottomed out in the mid- to upper 40s this morning, and it feels rather chilly outside. However, we’re going to see plenty of sunshine today and, indeed, for the rest of this week and that will help warm things up. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-60s today with very dry air in place. Winds will be from the north at 10 to 15 mph. We will likely experience one more night in the 40s tonight, so if you like cold weather this is a night to really soak it all up.

Tuesday

We’re going to be warmer, with highs in the mid-70s, and very light winds. This is likely to be one of the 10 finest days of the year, weather-wise, in Houston. Skies will be sunny, with low humidity. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the low- to mid-50s. Seriously, I challenge you to find something to complain about (the weather, at least!) Be sure and tell any out-of-town visitors that this is what it’s always like in Houston.

Wednesday

More sunshine. We’ll continue our warming trend with daytime temperatures of around 80 degrees. Lows on Wednesday night will fall to around 60 degrees. This really should be another splendid day with reasonably low humidity.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The rest of the week and into the weekend should continue to bring mostly sunny skies. Daytime temperatures will be in the vicinity of 80 to 85 degrees, with nights in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak front should arrive on Thursday night or Friday to blunt rising humidity levels, so our air should remain somewhat dry through the weekend. Honestly, there are just zero weather concerns this week at all.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, in the 80s and with more humid nights. Our overall rain chances appear to be quite low through at least the middle of next week. We have not seen our last front of the season, but one seems unlikely to push through Houston until at least the weekend of April 20 or so. Speaking of April 20, I don’t yet have a good read on weather conditions for Easter Sunday in Houston.

In brief: Houston is continuing to see exceptionally warm weather this week, and we’ll also experience ongoing windy conditions. There will be a very slight chance of storms north of the region today and Friday, and the risk of more widespread severe weather on Saturday. Afterwards conditions appear to be gorgeous next week.

Thursday

Temperatures continue to be very warm this morning across the Houston region. The normal low for the city, on April 3, is 57 degrees. Yesterday, the minimum temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport only reached 76 degrees, which smashed the previous record for high minimum temperature of 72 degrees for the day. We’re likely to set a similar record today.

A robust southwesterly flow in the atmosphere will continue to funnel warm air into the region today and Friday. This will help push temperatures up to around 90 degrees for most of Houston today even though skies are likely to remain partly to mostly cloudy. For April, that’s impressive heating without lots of direct sunshine.

The other factor in our weather will be the presence of a frontal boundary just to the north of the Houston area. This will do a couple of things. First, it will support strong southerly winds, at about 15 mph with gusts up to 30 or 35 mph. And secondly, for northern areas (probably along and north of Highway 105) it will produce a slight chance of storms. Down in the Houston metro area we cannot rule out some sprinkles, but we should remain dry for the most part. (By the way, this storm risk is historically high in the Mid-South, and you can find more information about this on The Eyewall). Expect another very warm night in the mid-70s.

Friday

We should see similar conditions on Friday, albeit with a slightly higher chance of showers in the Houston area, and thunderstorms for locations in Montgomery County and points north. Temperatures likely will be in the upper 80s for most of the Houston area.

Saturday

I’ve had a ton of questions about weddings and various outdoor activities on Saturday, due to the timing of the front, winds, and potential for thunderstorms. We’re just now coming into the range of high-resolution models, so we should start to get better details over the next 12 to 24 hours. What we know is that a front will push into Houston on Saturday, likely reaching the urban core of the city by around noon, and pushing off the coast afterward. The entire area faces a slight risk of severe weather during this frontal passage, with the usual threats of wind, hail, and possibly a tornado. At this time, it looks like the period of most concern for storms will be from mid-morning to the early evening in Houston. We should be able to nail this down more in Friday’s post. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid-80s with plenty of humidity ahead of the front before temperatures drop to around 50 degrees by Sunday morning.

Sunday

I expect rains to end at some point on Saturday night, but we cannot entirely rule out a few showers on Sunday morning. But skies should be clearing, and there will be plenty of drier air. Expect highs in the mid-60s, if you can believe it. It will be a bit breezy, with northerly winds of 15 mph or so, and higher gusts. These winds should die down by Sunday night, as lows drop into the upper 40s for much of the region.

Next week

Highs remain in the 70s, and lows in the 50s, through at least Wednesday of next week. Although the temperatures likely climb back into the 80s toward the end of the week, the air still looks reasonably dry. In short, it should be a splendid, spring-like week.

In brief: Today’s post discusses high winds expected over the Houston region this week, and our warm temperatures. Depending on clouds, some locations may hit 90 degrees. A strong front arrives this weekend and brings a chance of storms on Saturday. Next week looks much cooler and drier. Also, it’s bird migration time. We provide a way to track the nocturnal activity of these friendly fliers.

It’s bird migration time

I had a little fun with the headline this morning, but the reality is that April is the prime month for birds to migrate north across Texas from tropical South America and Mexico. There’s a fantastic resource called BirdCast which uses a variety of tools to track such migrations over Harris County, including weather radars and local observations. For example, the site estimates that about 600,00 birds flew overhead last night.

Migrations are also greater when winds are from the south, as this assists the flight of the birds, and we’re expecting fairly pronounced southerly winds this week. (Hence, this weather really is for the birds). Although birds will typically fly at 1,000 or more feet up in the atmosphere, they may stop to rest in our parks and coastal sanctuaries. If you want to help, you can turn out lights at night, as these can prove disorienting to birds. This video from Cornell University’s Lab of Ornithology offers much more information about all of this.

Wednesday

I wasn’t kidding about those winds. We are seeing gusts this morning of 30 mph, or higher, across much of the area, and we’re going to see fairly gusty conditions from now through Saturday. Winds should peak during the afternoon hours. Our high temperatures today will be determined by the extent to which we see clearing skies this afternoon, but my sense is that most areas will see enough clouds to hold highs in the upper 80s. But it’s still going to be quite warm and humid outside, especially with dewpoints around 70 degrees. There is a very slight chance of some showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two north of Houston this afternoon and evening. We’re likely talking areas along and north of Highway 105 here, so most of the Houston region should experience none of this.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be similar days, with gusty southerly winds and temperatures slotting in between the mid-80s and 90 degrees depending on cloud cover. Thursday probably has the best chance to be sunny during the afternoon, so that’s when most of the area probably will make a run at 90 degrees. It will be humid regardless, with warm nights. Both days will have about a 10 percent chance of some showers, so most of us will be dry.

Saturday and Sunday

A strong cold front will push through the area on Saturday, likely during the daytime hours. This should bring a good shot of rain with it, along with the potential for severe thunderstorms. Although the dynamics for strong storms look better to the northeast of Houston, we certainly cannot rule out impacts in the city. We are talking about the potential for heavy rainfall, brief street flooding, damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. Again, none of these are certainties or perhaps even likely, but conditions are such that they’re possible. (Much of the city probably will see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, for example). We should have a better idea about the overall threat in the coming days. The bottom line is that you should be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather on Saturday, especially in Kingwood and points to the northeast.

Depending on the timing, temperatures probably will reach the low- to mid-80s before the front trundles through. Lows on Saturday night will likely drop into the low 50s for much of the area. Some slight rain chances linger on Sunday, but I expect clearing skies at some point during the day. Highs probably will still only max out in the 60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks sunny and spring-like. Seriously, if you like mild temperatures and dry air, I’d advise soaking next week up. We should see daytime temperatures in the 70s and nights in the 50s through Wednesday or Thursday before we warm back up into the 80s. In addition to lots of sunshine we can expect much lighter winds for the most part. Cannot wait.