Eric Berger

In brief: This post, also published on The Eyewall, reviews the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season which officially ended on Nov. 30. The season will likely be remembered for the Appalachian flood disaster due to Hurricane Helene, and the relatively quick follow through in Florida from Hurricane Milton. Locally, Hurricane Beryl caused significant disruptions due to its wind gusts.

Hurricane season ends today officially, although it’s been quiet for the last 10 days or so. We could still get a surprise, as offseason storms have occurred. The last wintertime tropical system was an unnamed storm in January of 2023 off the coast of New England. Hurricane Alex occurred back in January 2016 out in the middle of the Atlantic. An unnamed storm formed near the Azores in December of 2013. The 2007 Atlantic season continued into December with Tropical Storm Olga, which racked up $45 million in damage in the Caribbean.

To retire, or not retire, that is the question

The 2024 Atlantic season will likely be remembered for the Appalachian flood disaster due to Hurricane Helene, as well as the relatively quick follow through in Florida from Hurricane Milton. Helene will almost certainly be retired in the post-season, the first “H” storm to get that treatment since 2017’s Hurricane Harvey. I suspect Milton will also be retired, which would make it the first “M” storm since Hurricane Michael in 2019 to be retired from the list.

The “B” storms are particularly tough to retire, given that they’re usually weaker and earlier in the season. The last “B” storm to be retired was 33 years ago, Hurricane Bob (which this author remembers from being sideswiped in New Jersey as a kid). Beryl will also almost certainly be retired, less so for what happened in Houston and more for what it did to some of the Caribbean islands as a category 5 storm.

The “A” storms are a bit easier to retire, with notable intense storms like Alicia, Allen, Andrew, Anita, and Audrey on the list. Flood events like Allison and Agnes have also been retired.

Storm names are generally retired because they were especially memorable or catastrophic in terms of property damage or loss of life. It’s part of why naming works for hurricanes; if it was an especially bad storm, that name will never be heard again except in relation to that specific storm.

The total damage from this season is likely to top $100 to 150 billion in damage based on various reliable estimates. There’s a much deeper story to be told here. Between various disasters and inflation in recent years, the cost of insurance has risen dramatically. This year likely did not help those problems. Folks like Steve Bowen below, as well as Kelly Hereid and Susan Crawford’s “Moving Day” are very good resources to follow this ongoing story.

Most people tend to focus on the hazard portion of weather / climate risk. Which is important.The next step is connecting the dots so everyone understands that this is a real and growing economic / pocketbook risk.It could lead to a future financial crisis.www.redfin.com/news/florida…

— Steve Bowen (@stevebowen.bsky.social) 2024-11-20T20:40:04.086Z

How did seasonal forecasts fare?

Back in May, I described the upcoming hurricane season as likely to be an “arduous slog.” It ended up that way in the end, sort of, but a bizarrely silent August threw a massive wrench in forecast expectations this year. NOAA’s official hurricane outlook called for the following:

• 17 to 25 named storms (18 storms, just verified)
• 8 to 13 hurricanes (11, verified)
• 4 to 7 major hurricanes (5, verified)
• Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) 150 to 245% of the median (About 120-125% of the 30 year average, fell somewhat short)

So overall this was a mixed bag of a seasonal forecast. There were some good calls and some overdone calls. In general, NOAA has actually had a bit of an under-forecast bias, with 4 of the last 5 years verifying above their forecast range.

• 2023: Forecast 14/7/3 and verified with 20/7/3
• 2022: Forecast 18/8/5 and verified with 14/8/2
• 2021: Forecast 17/8/4 and verified with 21/7/4
• 2020: Forecast 16/8/5 and verified 30/14/7
• 2019: Forecast 12/6/3 and verified 18/6/3

So, they met the target this year, though the ACE forecast was overdone. Much of this season’s absurdly high forecasts were driven by excessively warm water temperatures in the entire Atlantic basin, as well as the projected development of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. The warm water temperatures held on all season.

Notably for 2025, we remain near record levels across the Atlantic, except in the Gulf which has mercifully fallen back to just “above normal” levels. So the water temperature forecasts were accurate.

So what about La Niña?

Well, this one is a bit more complicated, but the answer is that it partially verified, yes. The ensemble spread shown by the multiple members in red lines above did a nice job capturing the realistic spread in possible options. And through August, the La Niña seems to have struggled to develop. We seem to be getting there now, sort of, though we are not officially there yet and we may not officially get there. We’re basically ENSO neutral, leaning negative. So while the forecast technically verified within the plume, it did not get to La Niña, which probably had some impact on reducing potential storms.

What happened in August?

So what hurt August and why did this season “feel” like it really underachieved? Well, if we look at the variable of “velocity potential” as a proxy for “rising air,” where negative values (blue and purple) indicate more rising air than usual, we can see an interesting comparison to an active stretch like August 15 through September 15, 2020, which produced some hefty storms. Use the slider to see the differences.

Both seasons featured generally significant rising air over Africa and/or the Indian Ocean, much like you would want to see in an active stretch. In 2020, however there was significant rising air over the Atlantic as well, whereas in 2024 we saw significant sinking air present in the Gulf, Caribbean, and parts of the western Atlantic. Interestingly, if you look at the rate of precipitation this year, you see a major difference in *where* in Africa the above normal rainfall occurred.

There was a good deal of talk this year about how the Sahara and Sahel were experiencing significant rainfall, and indeed there was a massive greening in the Sahel this year. Does this entirely explain why the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a bit less frenetic than expected? No, but it does offer a possible partial explanation and avenues for research that can help with future hurricane season outlooks.

Overall, there is a lot to unpack about this season. From a damage standpoint it met expectations. From a statistical standpoint, it met some expectations and fell short in others.

Fundraiser

You want to know what hasn’t ended? Our annual fundraiser at Space City Weather. However, it does tomorrow. So if you want to support our work here, please follow this link to donate or buy merchandise.

In brief: Today’s post takes a detailed look at what to expect from the strong cold front arriving on Thanksgiving morning, windy conditions for Black Friday shoppers, and a pleasant winter-like weekend. There’s also an outlook for the return of the rivalry between the Longhorns and Aggies on Saturday night.

For those keeping score at home, I managed to stuff four puns into the headline of this post. Ok, I’ll stop now, I promise. That’s the last pun. Anyway, we at Space City Weather hope you have a great Thanksgiving. I’d be remiss if I did not remind you that if you’re thankful for the work we do, there’s still a few more days to contribute to our annual fundraiser. You can find out more information here about ways to support the site for next year. We’ll be back here on Friday morning unless something major changes with the forecast.

Wednesday

As a southerly flow ramps up, high temperatures today will near, or possibly match records for Nov. 27 in Houston. The official high temperature is 84 degrees, set in 1989. After some clouds this morning, skies will be mostly sunny with southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph. Tonight will be warm and muggy ahead of a cool front that will push through Houston during the pre-dawn hours on Thursday.

Thursday

The front should be approaching our area by around midnight, and reach the coast no later than sunrise. It’s possible there may be a few spotty showers with the passage of the front, but overall you’re probably not going to see any rain. By the morning hours of Thanksgiving we’ll see northerly winds at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph or higher and drier air blows into the area. After the front’s passage, daytime temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the area. Skies will be mostly cloudy on the Thanksgiving holiday, with some possible clearing during the afternoon or evening hours.

Lows on Thursday night will generally drop into the 40s in Houston, but some far inland areas, including College Station and northern parts of Montgomery County, should get into the 30s. Note that with wind gusts of 20 mph possibly on Friday morning, it will feel colder than this outside, so that is something to keep in mind if you’re going to be out shopping late Thursday night, or early Friday.

Friday

This will be a chilly day, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees, despite mostly sunny skies. Winds will be from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Expect another chilly night, with lows dropping into the 30s for far inland areas, and 40s in metro Houston. The coast will be a bit warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be the first winter-like weekend of the season, with highs generally in the low- to mid-60s, mostly sunny days, and nights in the 40s. Winds will be fairly light.

Next week

Next week will see a gradual warmup, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s, and overnight temperatures rebounding to about 60 degrees by the middle of the week. Cloud cover will increase, and we’ll start to see daily rain chances by Monday or especially Tuesday from a coastal low pressure system. This does not look to be potent rainmaker, but it may be persistent in that we see ongoing periods of light to moderate rain for a few days.

The game

Many of you will undoubtedly be interested in the outcome of a certain football game on Saturday night, in College Station, Texas. For late November, the weather will be fine. Expect gametime temperatures for the visiting Texas Longhorns and home Texas A&M Aggies to be in the 50s, with partly cloudy skies. By the end of the game the mercury may drop into the upper 40s. The good news is that there will be no wind to affect the outcome of the game. It’s fun to have the rivalry back!

In brief: A Monday night front brought a cool-down to the area, but it will be briefly lived. A second front on Thanksgiving morning will provide a more long-lasting chill, with sweater weather on the holiday. After a cool weekend, rain returns to the forecast later next week.

Tuesday

A front arrived on Monday night to bring us out of record temperature territory back down to normal levels for this time of year. Lows this morning have dropped to about 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. This will be one of those blink-and-you-miss-it fronts, with the onshore flow returning by this evening. Essentially, that means the dry air will last about 24 hours.

Today should be spectacular, however. Expect highs of around 70 degrees, low humidity, and mostly sunny skies. Winds, generally, will be light. We’ll see an increase in clouds tonight, and lows will probably only drop to about 60 degrees, or a touch lower, as dewpoints recover.

Wednesday

This will be a partly sunny, and much warmer day. Look for high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. (The record high for Wednesday is 84 degrees, and we’re going to come very close, if not break it). Winds will pick up from the south, perhaps gusting up to 25 mph as a warmer, more humid flow moves in during the daytime. Lows on Wednesday night will be slow to fall, reaching only the mid- to upper-60s ahead of a cold front.

Thanksgiving

A stronger, more long-lasting front will arrive on Thursday morning, perhaps pushing into Houston by around sunrise and off the coast shortly thereafter (there is still a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing). A few, very isolated showers are possible, but I wouldn’t expect any rain as the front pushes in. What we will see are northern winds, gusting to 20 to 25 mph.

Skies look to be mostly cloudy during the daytime, with temperatures generally in the low- to mid-60s. So after a long and abnormally hot November, Thanksgiving will indeed feel seasonal. You might even wear a sweater. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 40s, with some decently gusty winds holding on, so bear that in mind if you’re doing some early morning shopping on Friday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Generally this cooler and drier air will hold on through the weekend. Expect highs generally in the 60s, and lows in the 40s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will be about 10 percent each day, so not zero, but definitely not likely. This will be the first winter-like weekend of the season.

Next week

Although the details are blurry, the general contours of our weather for next week are coming into better focus. We’ll see some low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that could support the development of daily rain chances for much of the week, with a total of perhaps 1 to 3 inches over several days. Skies will be mostly cloudy with daily highs perhaps in the 60s, and lows in the 50s. We’ll see.

Fundraiser

We have just a few more days left in our annual fundraiser—your one opportunity each year to support the work we do, and buy merchandise to show your support of the site. Thank you to all who have given so far! More information can be found here.