Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we dive into the timing for a second round of precipitation tonight, and when and where that is likely to transition over to freezing rain and sleet. Additionally, cloud cover is complicating the forecast for lows on Monday morning.

Precipitation overview

As of 6:30 am CT on Saturday we are seeing widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms, moving through the region. This was entirely expected, and will drop between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain for most locations. These rains are actually rather beneficial given our region’s ongoing drought, and since temperatures today will remain above freeze there is no threat of ice from them. The main mass of these showers should exit the region to the east by around 9 am, with a few lingering showers possible later this morning and into the afternoon.

Then, later this evening, another round of showers will move in from the west, and persist sporadically overnight into Sunday morning. These will exit to the east by mid-morning on Sunday. This second round of precipitation could drop 0.5 to 1.0 inch of water. Now, the question is if and when this rain on Saturday night and Sunday morning transitions over to freezing rain.

For areas along and north of Highway 105, which includes places such as College Station, Navasota, Conroe, and other locations, this transition could occur as early as 7 pm and 10 pm on Saturday evening. A little closer to the Houston metro area, for places such as Katy and The Woodlands, this transition (should it occur) will happen a little later, perhaps between 10 pm Saturday and 2 am on Sunday. Then, after midnight, we are likely to see a mix of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet in central areas such as Sugar Land, urban Houston, Kingwood, and so on; basically areas along and inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. For areas closer to the coast is is possible this line of freezing rain/sleet transition continues, or it may remain just warm enough to preclude the formation of freezing precipitation.

In any case, when you wake up on Sunday morning, you will want to pay very close attention to road surfaces. For central and northern Houston there is a reasonable likelihood of a light sheen of ice, which will make driving hazardous.

Sunday

Most of the area will start out on Sunday with temperatures around freezing, perhaps a degree or two below or above. One important question is whether air temperatures rise much. I’m starting to think the answer is probably not, because skies are now likely to remain mostly cloudy during the daytime. It is therefore possible that any ice that has accumulated on roads (which again, is likely to have occurred in many locations along and north of Highway 59, and possibly further south) will stick throughout the day. However if temperatures do rise above freezing some of this ice may melt, especially with the aid of northerly winds to dry roads. Speaking of those winds, they will represent the full surge of Arctic air moving in, likely gusting up to 25 or 30 mph on Sunday afternoon. This means it will be very cold outside, even during the daytime. Temperatures on Sunday night will be tricky, because if clouds linger it will provide some limited “insulation.” Accordingly I think low temperatures in Houston will likely fall into the 20 to 25 degrees range, with upper teens to lower 20s possible to the west (Katy and beyond) and north (Spring and Kingwood) and beyond.

Monday

Ok, so will there be ice on the roads on Monday? Will the airports be effectively shut down? Will you have to go to work or school? This is the question everyone wants answered, and I don’t have anything definitive for you (except for some schools that have already shut down). I think, for at least parts of the Houston metro area, there will be ice issues on roads. It may be regional. For example, Bush Intercontinental Airport might be iced in (such that workers cannot get there) whereas Hobby Airport has more passable roads. But honestly, we could see any scenario from very limited ice impacts (excepting elevated roads and bridges) across Houston to pretty widespread impacts on Monday morning. We probably won’t have a definitive answer on this until Sunday, when we see how much ice has accumulated, and what temperatures that afternoon do. I know, I know, that’s not particularly helpful.

We do expect the return of sunshine on Monday, which is great because it should allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the 35 to 40 degree range, helping to clear roads in most locations, hopefully even our far northern areas along Highway 105. We’ll see about that. The downside of the clearing skies is that they will bring another very cold night into the city, with temperatures likely on par with Sunday night. So a hard freeze for many, if not most locations.

The rest of next week

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week should be comfortably in the upper 40s and then early 50s for daytime temperatures. We still might see some light freezes, but nothing too concerning after this weekend’s mess. We should see a decent amount of sunshine. There is the potential for another Arctic front next weekend, but at this time I’m not sure Houston will see a direct shot of the coldest air. So I’m hopeful that we won’t see temperatures drop significantly below freezing. However, we’re not ruling anything out, including the possibility of a wintry mix remix. For now there’s way too many unknowns to say anything intelligent about such a forecast, however.

Saturday Q&A

I’m going to do another Q&A with readers on Facebook at 11 am CT today, so bring your most difficult weather questions and I’ll do my best to answer them. We will once again share the most commonly asked questions here, along with the answers, in a follow-up post.

Our next full update after this will be published around 3 pm this afternoon.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the ongoing forecast with a winter storm that is due to arrive in Houston about 36 hours from now. With this update we list some things we know, and some we don’t about the forthcoming freeze.

Overview

Good afternoon. We are about a day and a half from freezing temperatures descending into the Houston metro area. Not much has changed with our overall forecast. Area roadways should be fine through Saturday evening, but by early Sunday we have questions and concerns. At this point I’m a little more bullish on ice in the Houston metro area, so I am leaning a little more toward a disruptive event on Sunday and possibly Monday morning, especially for locations north of Interstate 10. But it is far from a done deal.

We also still have questions about how cold temperatures will get on Monday and Tuesday mornings. I would ballpark lows at about 20 degrees in urban Houston (a little cooler for inland sites such as Katy, Tomball, The Woodlands, and Kingwood) and a little warmer for locations closer to the coast, such as League City. But there is the possibility those temperatures are too low. Anyway, on to what we know, and what we don’t.

We know: If you need to make a closure decision now, err on the side of caution

I’m still not sure what Houston’s roads will look like on Sunday morning, later in the day, and on Monday morning. Following precipitation on Sunday morning, which could fall as freezing rain or cold rain, we could be anywhere from “bone dry” to “icy bridges and overpasses” to “widespread ice” by Sunday afternoon. I know this is a huge cop-out, but it’s the truth due to uncertainty about air temperatures on Sunday. Anyway, we’ve already seen decisions by the Houston Independent School District and a handful of other districts to close on Monday. This is understandable, given the uncertainty. If you can’t wait to make a closure decision, that’s prudent. If you can wait, there’s still a chance things will be mostly fine on roads.

We don’t know: What will happen with electricity?

There are two issues with getting electricity into your home. The first of these is generation. This was the killer during the February 2021 winter storm, when large chunks of the Texas power grid were taken offline due to plants shutting down. If you’re like me, you’ve been periodically checking the “supply and demand” projection from ERCOT. Everything looks more of less fine, but there does appear to be a potential supply crunch on Monday morning, around sunrise, when temperatures are at their coldest.

The other issue is distribution, with the main concern in ice accumulating on tree limbs and power lines, causing them to snap. CenterPoint Energy, which is responsible for distribution in the greater Houston area, says they are making all necessary preparations. The bottom line is that I don’t expect to see the extreme and disastrous power losses experienced during the winter storm of 2021. But that’s not to say there won’t be some disruptions in service.

We know: People are panic shopping

I’ve heard from people, and can see from social media, that y’all are raiding grocery stores for all manner of supplies. (Pro tip: Kroger appears to be less crowded than HEB). But you don’t need to stock up forever, friends. Regardless of what happens, roads will very likely be passable on Monday afternoon, and at the very worst Tuesday when we’re back up into the 40s.

We don’t know: How low will temperatures go?

Forecasting low temperatures is difficult during winter events like this. One factor is ice. If there is a lot of it covering areas north of Houston, and within the city itself, than northerly winds moving over this ice will cool down more efficiently. This will lead to colder temperatures (possibly teens) in and around Houston. However it is also plausible that much of the city only drops to about 25 degrees. Our best advice is to prepare for the colder temperatures, and hope for “warmer” conditions.

We know: Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday

A decent line of thunderstorms will pass through Houston on Saturday morning, likely during the mid-morning hours. Thunderstorms will be more likely along and south of Interstate 10 and closer to the coast. These could drop 1 to 2 inches of rain pretty quickly, so keep that in mind as part of your winterization preparations. After these storms pass I expect a lull in rain (for the most part) as temperatures drop into the 40s on Saturday afternoon. A second round of showers will likely spin up early on Sunday and persist into the mid-morning hours.

We don’t know: How airports will be affected

I know, you have flight questions. I wish we had answers. Flying on Saturday should not be problematic, but it’s difficult to say the same about Sunday and possibly Monday morning. Of note, many airlines have issued waivers for change fees for today through Monday.

We know: Space City Weather does not use made up storm names

The Weather Channel, as it has done for more than a decade, has named the impending winter storm “Fern.” These names are not official, and there is no significant evidence they do anything to enhance safety. Also, “Fern” is a pretty dumb name for a storm. So we won’t be using it (just like we have never used “Uri” for the 2021 deep freeze).

Our next update will be posted by 7 am CT on Saturday. I will also be doing an additional Q&A at 11 am tomorrow on our Facebook page. Thanks for your patience as we work through a difficult forecast here.

In brief: In today’s post we dive into the latest data about the impending winter storm and share our thoughts about freezing rain, hard freezes, and more in Houston. There is also a new wrinkle, with the potential for thunderstorms on Saturday morning. Because, why not?

Winter Storm overview

We continue to monitor the impacts from an Arctic front that will arrive this weekend in the Houston region. Friday and Saturday should be fine for getting around, although in a new wrinkle we now anticipate the potential for some thunderstorms on Saturday morning. Fortunately this will fall just as rain. We are still watching closely for when temperatures reach the freezing mark in the metro area, as that will make all the difference as to whether we see freezing rain and icy roads on Sunday morning. See below for a full discussion of all this.

Friday

We are seeing plenty of fog across the area this morning, with light winds, and temperatures and dewpoints both settling at about 60 degrees. Highs today will push into the upper 60s, with mostly cloudy skies. We could see a few light showers, but these should be nothing to write home about. Lows tonight should drop into the 50s, area-wide, as the initial push of colder air arrives from the cold front.

Saturday

There’s a new threat to talk about on Saturday. There will be an interesting setup with very moist, and warm air offshore and much colder air over inland parts of Texas. This could well lead to the development of some thunderstorms during the mid-morning hours on Saturday, as essentially a line of storms pushes through. This is likely to drop 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain pretty quickly, and I hope the city’s efforts to treat bridges and overpasses for ice (which may come later) takes this rainfall into account. With temperatures likely around 50 degrees in Houston on Saturday, this will indeed just fall as rain.

After these showers and storms move through, we could see an end to precipitation for awhile on Saturday afternoon, although our skies will remain mostly cloudy. Temperatures likely will hover in the 40s during the afternoon hours, with modest northerly winds. At some point on Saturday evening to Saturday night, freezing temperatures will start to get closer to the area. They could arrive in Montgomery County by around 9 pm to midnight, and likely not moving into Harris and counties closer to the coast until after midnight or later. I expect area roadways to remain passable, at the very least, through Saturday evening.

Sunday

Ahh, Sunday. This day remains the bane of a forecaster’s existence. We really need to know precise temperatures throughout the day, literally to within a degree, and as of yet we still don’t have that kind of certainty.

With that said, I expect to see additional light showers overnight on Saturday into Sunday, followed by what may be a second line of showers and thunderstorms around sunrise on Sunday, or shortly thereafter. And then the rain should exit to our east, for good.

Question no. 1 is: How cold with temperatures be across the metro area at sunrise on Sunday? If they’re below freezing at your location, there’s a decent chance of some minor ice accumulation. If they’re above freezing at your location, it’s just very cold rain. I think there’s about a 50 percent chance of freezing temperatures in a location such as The Woodlands at this time, and perhaps less than 50 percent along the I-10 corridor in Houston, and less still south of there. So when you wake up on Sunday and consider going out and about, you’re going to need to be weather aware. Check local temperatures. See if the precipitation has moved on. Read what we’re saying here. Roads on Sunday morning may be fine. They may be mostly OK with some issues on elevated surfaces. Or it may be pretty icy out there and you should stay inside.

For now our best guess (emphasis on guess) is this: There could be up to 0.2 inch of ice accumulation in Montgomery County, especially along and north of Highway 105. Ares of northwest Harris County, as well as Waller and Austin counties, may see some minor ice accumulations. Areas closer to the coast probably will not.

Question no. 2 is: How warm will temperatures get on Sunday afternoon? As precipitation exits to the east, we should see some partially clearing skies on Sunday. With gusty northwesterly winds (perhaps up to 25 mph from the north) we are going to see a lot of very cold air advecting in. If temperatures are above freezing in your location for a couple of hours, with a little sunshine and these winds, we are going to see good conditions to dry out roads. However, if temperatures remain at or below freezing at your location, any ice is going to stick around. My general guess is that we are going to see roads dry out, at least in non-shadowed areas. But an alternative possibility is that we don’t get enough heat or sunlight before frigid temperatures descend Sunday evening. Again this is going to have to be a game time decision.

We remain highly confident in temperatures plunging on Sunday night, probably down to the 20-25 degree range in urban Houston, with conditions a little warmer closer to the coast, and a little cooler in places like Katy and The Woodlands (15 to 25 degrees). Note there still is some uncertainty about how cold it will get.

Monday

What roads look like on Monday morning will depend on what they looked like Sunday evening. We are not going to see any additional precipitation, so if they’re dry on Sunday night, they’ll be dry on Monday morning. We should see temperatures climb to highs between 35 and 40 degrees on Monday, and with clear skies and light winds, we can expect another very cold night. Temperatures likely only be 1 to 3 degrees above conditions on Sunday night.

Tuesday and beyond

We’ll warm up a little next week, likely with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s until Thursday or Friday. After that time there’s the potential for a secondary Arctic blast, although I don’t think the overall airmass is going to be quite as cold this time. However there is also a non-zero chance of some snow with this system. But it’s all pretty fuzzy, and the models are hopping around a lot from run-to-run. So we’re not going to speculate too much here.

Our next update will be posted by or before 3 pm CT today.

A message from Reliant

If you’re new to our website, welcome. We recently celebrated the tenth anniversary of Space City Weather, and have always been—and always will be—free and freely available with no paywalls. We do not track our readers or collect their personal information. This is possible because of our readers who contribute to our annual fundraiser, and our long-time sponsor, Reliant. They have been our valued partner since 2017, and have helped us grow over that time. Today they want to offer a few tips to help you stay warm and manage electricity usage during upcoming freeze.

Try space heaters in high-traffic rooms. Lower your thermostat and use an energy-efficient space heater in rooms where you spend the most time.

Check your thermostat. If you have an electric heater, set the thermostat to 68 degrees while you’re awake. Lower it and add an extra blanket while you sleep to save energy.

Use your drapes. Thermal drapes can help block drafts and retain heat, especially on older windows. Open south-facing curtains during the day to let in sunlight and close them at night to trap warmth.

Invest in smart plugs and smart power strips. These allow you to control the power supply to devices remotely via a smartphone app. This way, you can easily shut off power to devices not in use, even when you’re not at home.

Layer up. Reach for a sweater or blanket before reaching for the thermostat. Weather-appropriate clothes help reduce the demand for heat. Plug in your electric blanket and stay warm for around 25 cents a day.

Install insulation. While more of a long-term project, you can regulate your home’s temperature and reduce heating costs by adding insulation.

Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With a couple of hours’ work, you can seal out the cold and save up to 10 percent on total energy costs.

In brief: In this afternoon’s post we discuss what we think will happen in Houston and surrounding counties with the forthcoming winter weather, and when it will happen. We also have some advice for people making closure decisions, and an opportunity for you to ask questions later today.

Ask me anything today

We’ve gotten a ton of questions, as you might imagine, about impacts from the freeze, and what it means for getting around Houston and traveling beyond the city this weekend. I’m going to set aside some time, beginning at 4 pm CT today, to answer your questions on Facebook. I’ll create a post and take your questions there. If you don’t use Facebook, don’t worry. We’ll collect some of the best and most-asked questions and repost them here on Space City Weather.

Wait to make closure decisions, if you can

We’ve also heard from business and other entities making decisions about closing on Monday. I fully recognize that everyone has their own timeline, and prefers to give people as much time to make accommodations. All I would really like to say here is that if you can wait to make a decision, it is probably in your best interest to do so. There are scenarios in which the “winter storm” this weekend has relatively modest impacts on the region and our roads. There are also scenarios in which the ice accumulation is enough to shut things down on Sunday and Monday morning. What we’re struggling with as meteorologists is just how crippling the impacts will be. Right now Matt and I are leaning slightly toward “modest” rather than “crippling” impacts, but it us just too early to say for sure. Anyway, if you need to make a decision today, you should err on the side of caution. If you can wait another day or two, you may benefit from better weather information.

Winter storm forecast

The forecast, as we’ve outlined for the last 24 hours, remains more or less on track. So for this afternoon’s post I thought I would do a post about what to expect, and when.

Friday, Friday night, and Saturday

This period should be moderately warm, with increasing rain chances on Friday evening and for much of Saturday. Although the cold front will arrive on Friday, it is going to take a secondary push before the Arctic air really pushes in. So on Friday we can generally expect temperatures in the 60s, with overnight lows in the 50s, and then temperatures in the 50s (perhaps 60s closer to the coast) on Saturday. This means that, when the majority of precipitation falls on Saturday, it’s going to just fall harmlessly as rain. That’s great.

Saturday night and Sunday

That secondary push of colder air will arrive sometime on Saturday night. We think it will arrive late enough such that getting around Harris County should pose no problems through at least 9 pm CT on Saturday. (This deadline may come a little earlier in Montgomery County, where temperatures will be quicker to reach freezing level). After this point we’re not quite sure how cold it will get, and how quickly. Let’s quickly go over two scenarios:

Slower Freeze: There is a world in which air temperatures on Sunday remain in the 33 to 40 degree range in Harris County and other parts of suburban Houston (outside of Montgomery County). At the same time we would see the end of showers on Sunday, and some sunshine during the afternoon to help dry out roads. In this scenario mobility issues on Sunday and Monday morning are mostly ok, although we would definitely have some concerns about bridges and overpasses.

Faster Freeze: In this scenario daytime temperatures drop to freezing during the daytime Sunday in Houston and surrounding areas, and we continue to see precipitation that falls as freezing rain. This accumulates on Sunday afternoon and there is no time for it to melt or evaporate before a hard freeze Sunday night. In this case driving around Houston on Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday is rather hazardous.

So which will happen? We just cannot predict with any confidence right now. Sorry. The European model and some of our emerging high-resolution guidance support the “slower freeze” scenario, but there is plenty of data to support a “faster freeze” scenario as well. Hopefully things will clarify in the next day or so, but no promises there.

Sunday night into Monday

It’s gonna get really cold on Sunday night, with temperatures likely falling to the 20 to 24 degree range in urban Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas. This meets the criteria for a hard freeze, so all steps should be taken to protect pipes, plants, and pets. We continue to be hopeful that Monday will be sunny and see temperatures in the upper 30s to 40 degrees, which should solve ice issues on roads in Houston. What I’m not sure about is how far north these “above-freezing” temperatures will extend. For example, will ice melt from roads in Conroe or Huntsville on Monday afternoon? I’m not sure.

What about another ‘winter storm’ next week?

Yes, there is some possibility of another Arctic outbreak during the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday period of next week. Everything from snow on down is on the table. At this point it doesn’t look like absolute air temperatures will get as cold as this weekend, but we’ll just have to wait and see. One disaster at a time, y’all!

We’ll have an update this evening with the best questions and answers from our “Ask me Anything” this afternoon.