Eric Berger

In brief: Houston’s above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, as we feel like late spring outside. A weak front approaches the area on Sunday, but significantly cooler weather will not arrive until some time next week.

Thursday

We’re seeing additional areas of patchy fog this morning, due to warm air moving over coastal waters, and this pattern is likely to continue through at least Saturday morning. Once the fog dissipates, we’ll experience mostly sunny skies and another warm day, with high temperatures in the low 80s. If you’re wondering whether this is normal for early February, no it is not. These high temperatures are characteristic of late April, and our overnight lows of early May. Winds will generally be light today, from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-60s for most locations.

Friday

Good news: If you liked Thursday’s weather, Friday will be a carbon copy.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be quite warm, with high temperatures likely pushing into the mid-80s for areas away from the coast. We will see a mixture of sunshine and clouds, and lows only dropping into the upper 60s. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday there are few concerns aside from the warmer-than-normal conditions.

Sunday

A fairly weak front will approach the Houston area and then stall out on Sunday. Precisely what this means for our weather is not certain, but I think we’ll probably just see a few degrees knocked off of high temperatures. I’m thinking highs in the upper 70s for most of Houston, with partly sunny skies. Given the proximity of the front, we cannot entirely rule out a few sprinkles, but I think we’ll be mostly rain free. Sunday night may be a few degrees cooler.

Next week

We’re probably going to start off next week in the 70s, and we’ll likely see daily rain chances on the order of 30 to 40 percent as the atmosphere becomes a bit more turbulent due to some upper-level disturbances. Eventually this is likely to bring in some cooler and more seasonable air, but whether that happens on Tuesday or Wednesday, or a bit later in the week is yet to be determined. We shall see.

In brief: Houston’s early February warm spell is bringing record high temperatures and plenty of sea fog, and this pattern is unlikely to change before at least Sunday. And even then there is some uncertainty about the timing and strength of a front that will be moving down toward Houston.

Unseasonably warm

We’re starting to set some fairly serious heat records with this present warm spell. The high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday afternoon reached 84 degrees, smashing the previous record of 81 degrees for the city of Houston, set during 1957. The city of Galveston, too, eked out a new record of 75 degrees, besting a mark of 74 degrees originally set way, way, way back in 1890 (and subsequently tied in 1957). With a very warm southerly flow in place for the remainder of the week, we can expect more records to fall in the coming days.

Wednesday

Warm air temperatures are continuing to contribute to the development of sea fog across coastal areas, as this air moves over the cooler Gulf waters. In addition, we’re seeing some light, misty rain in coastal areas. If you’re driving through the soupy air, take a little extra time and give the car ahead of you a little more space. This fog should dissipate between 9 and 10 this morning. Afterward, highs today will reach around 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Lows tonight may briefly drop into the upper 60s.

Thursday and Friday

The warm pattern continues, with sea fog possible in the early morning hours. Highs will be in the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds. Nights will be warm, in the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

We can be confident in the weather for the first half of the weekend. It will be warm, with partly sunny skies, and highs in the lower to possibly mid-80s, pushing record levels. (This is moderately amusing because about 10 days ago you may recall some social mediarologists telling us about an “Arctic blast” coming through during the weekend of Saturday, February 8). A weak front will approach the Houston area on Saturday night and Sunday, but it remains an open question as to whether the front will make it all the way into Houston proper. Accordingly my best guess is that highs reach about 80 degrees on Sunday, but there’s some uncertainty around that. As the front stalls, we may see a few scattered showers.

Next week

At some point next week a stronger push of cooler air is likely to come down, but how strong and how long it lasts remains to be seen. Perhaps we’ll see a night or two in the 40s.

In brief: Today’s post discusses sea fog, of which there is plenty near the coast this morning. Beyond that, the forecast is proceeding pretty much as expected, with much warmer-than-normal weather for February expected through Saturday. Some sort of cold front arrives later on Sunday, probably, to bring somewhat cooler weather.

Sea fog

The closer you live to the coast, the greater the chance you’re experiencing sea fog this morning. This is caused by warmer air—such as we’re experiencing now, with air temperatures of about 70 degrees near the coast—moving over somewhat cooler nearshore waters in the Gulf. This fog forms when warmer air moves over the cooler waters, and the air temperature falls to the dew point temperature, saturating the air.

A dense fog advisory is in effect until 9 am this morning, with visibility is some locations low as one-quarter of a mile. If you’re driving in this, please leave a little more space between vehicles, and use your low-beam lights. With warmer weather this week, fog will be possible in coastal areas through Friday or possibly even Saturday morning.

Tuesday

As noted in Monday’s forecast, the weather this week will vary little from day to day. We’ll see a persistent onshore flow all week, and this will lead to a warm and consistent pattern. High temperatures today will reach about 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. With dewpoints in the 60s, the air will feel somewhat sticky. Lows tonight will only fall into the upper 60s for most of the metro area.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Rinse and repeat. Expect warm days in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny days, and mostly cloudy and warm nights. We can’t entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re quite low, perhaps on the order of 10 percent each day.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend brings more of the same, however it now appears likely that some sort of front will push into the metro area on Sunday. The timing and strength are still to be determined, as well as the likelihood of rain with the front. At this point I’ll predict high temperatures in the low-80s on Saturday, a warm night, and highs near 80 degrees on Sunday with a modest chance of rain. Lows on Sunday night will fall into the 50s. All of this is in pencil, mind you.

Next week

With uncertainty about the strength of the front, and possibly a secondary push of cooler air mid-week, I don’t feel too confident about what to expect next week, except to say that it probably will feel more like February than this week does. I also think we’ll see more clouds and better rain chances. But as ever, the long-range details are fuzzy.

In brief: The forecast for this week is pretty boring, and unchanging. In fact, I give you permission not to check Space City Weather for a few days. We are going to be rather warm for February this week, with low rain chances. So this post addresses the question, is winter over?

Winter update

Sunday was gorgeous, and it felt much more like spring than winter. And the truth is, the entirety of the coming week is going to be quite warm with daytime temperatures around 80 degrees and mild nights in the 60s. So it is natural to ask, is that it for winter this year in Houston?

That depends. As the calendar goes, winter in Houston lasts from December through February. So we’ve got a few more weeks to go. Based upon the questionable prognostications from Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow during a ceremony on Sunday, we have six more weeks of winter. But what does the science of meteorology say?

As usual, we have few absolute answers. However, it does seem clear that Houston’s pattern will turn colder next week. Moreover, there is the potential for another significant outbreak of colder air during the second half of February. This is because our latest data indicates that the stratospheric polar vortex, which bottles cold air near the north pole, may split and allow some of this very cold air to come down into the mid-latitudes. The timing for this would be later in February, or early March.

So our advice is that, yes, this week is going to feel unseasonably warm for February. It’s definitely shorts-and-t-shirts weather. But don’t put away those sweaters just yet.

Monday

Temperatures in Houston this morning are generally in the lower 60s, and this is as cold as our weather is going to get until next Sunday or Monday. This pattern is due to a persistent onshore flow, and it’s not going to vary much this week. This kind of warmer weather at this time of year is supportive of sea fog, so there will be a chance of that most mornings this week. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

Tuesday through Friday

Not much changes for the rest of the week. Expect partly sunny days, with highs of around 80 degrees, and cloudy nights in the 60s. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain each day. Winds will be from the south each day at about 10 mph. With dewpoints in the 60s, it will feel moderately humid. And that’s basically the forecast. I should take a holiday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks more or less the same, with highs of around 80 degrees, lows in the upper 60s, and a mixture of clouds and sunshine. Southerly winds may pick up a little bit on Saturday from the south. At some point a front is going to come trundling through, but it’s not clear to me whether that will happen on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday.

Next week

Whenever said front arrives it will probably bring our first meaningful rain chances with it. The front will also usher in winter-like conditions back to Houston, probably driving low temperatures down into the 40s during the second half of next week. But the timing and intensity of such a cold snap remains pretty fuzzy, as we’re talking about a period 7 to 10 days from now.