Eric Berger

Good morning. It’s June 1, which for us marks the beginning of summer and the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The next four months are the hottest of the year—with temperatures peaking in August. However this year we’ve had a slower build into summer, with average temperatures about 1 degree cooler than normal in May. This was due, in large measure, to most of the area seeing rain most days during the second half of the month.

This cooler-but-wetter trend looks to continue into at least the first week of June. Overall, our forecast for the week ahead, including next weekend, look quite wet. The combination of a moist atmosphere, feeding off the Gulf of Mexico, and a series of slow-moving atmospheric disturbances will drive rain chances upward through the weekend, at least.

On average, much of the region will probably receive on the order of 4 to 6 inches of rainfall, with some areas receiving more. Over an entire week, this is manageable of course. What we’re more concerned about are areas receiving that much rain in a couple of hours, and causing flooding problems on roadways. Because of this potential for flooding, and our already sodden soils, we’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our flood scale for the entire Houston region, and this is likely to remain in effect through at least Sunday.

Tuesday

The first opportunity for rain comes today, as a band of storms moves from west to east across the region. These storms produced very intense rains overnight in areas far west and north of the Houston metro area, but appear to be weakening as they approach our region and move through today. While most areas will get less, a few parts of Houston may see 1 to 3 inches of rain today. Highs will top out in the low- to mid-80s with the persistent cloud cover.

Wednesday

This will be another day of fairly widespread showers, with half or more of the region seeing at least some rainfall amidst clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will again be moderated by clouds, topping out in the mid-80s. These two days will probably be something like appetizers for the main event later this week.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

The pattern will become even more favorable for heavy rainfall by around Thursday, when a slow-moving upper-level disturbance begins to directly impact our weather. With these slow moving systems we are concerned about the potential for training storms and flooding. While it’s difficult to say much about each of these individual days, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall each day, along with mostly cloudy skies. This will help to moderate temperatures of course, and we expect to remain in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. If you have outdoor activities planned for the period ahead, please know that you should definitely have a backup plan.

Next week

When will Houston emerge from this wet mess? We don’t have a confident answer for you, but for now I think the pattern will begin to moderate about one week from today. Until that time you should keep an umbrella handy, keep an eye on the radar, and be weather aware. We’ll be here.

Now that we’re completely past the heavy rainfall, I want to take a look back at our totals since the beginning on May 16. From that day through Wednesday, most weather stations in the Houston region recorded at least a trace of rain, and often more than 1 inch a day. Here are the 14-day totals for the upper Texas coast. Areas in white show 20 inches of accumulation, Barney purple is more than 10 inches.

In addition to ending our region’s emerging drought, another effect of these rains has been cooler-than-normal temperatures for the month of May. Our monthly average temperature is running about 1 degree below normal, and our average high has been in the low 80s. This will soon change as June is around the corner, but it has been kind of nice.

Thursday

Houston enjoyed sunny weather on Wednesday, and that should continue today with a mix of sunshine and clouds. A few very scattered showers will be possible this afternoon as highs crank up into the upper 80s, but the vast majority of us will remain dry. Overnight temperatures will be muggy, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Friday

Conditions should be similar on Friday, with continued partly sunny skies and highs pushing into the upper 80s. Sometime beginning Friday evening, or possibly not until the overnight hours into Saturday morning, rain chances will start to increase in response to an upper-level disturbance.

Saturday

Said rain chances will likely peak on Saturday morning, although we can’t be sure about timing. Overall accumulations should be higher north of Interstate 10, with 0.5 to 1 inches of rain, whereas most areas closer to the coast will likely see less than one-half inch. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. After the rains I expect at least partly sunny skies Saturday afternoon as a (very) weak front pushes into Houston and off the coast. Highs will be in the mid-80s.

Sunday

Right now I have Sunday as the pick of the litter for the weekend. With a smidge of drier air, partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the mid-80s, this should be a really nice day for outdoor activities. Rain chances should be near zero.

Memorial Day and next week

Memorial Day should see a continuation of Sunday’s weather, albeit with perhaps a bit more humidity. For now I’d expect highs in the mid-80s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Some rain chances return on Tuesday, but for now our confidence in the forecast at that point is pretty low, and it may be Wednesday or Thursday before any rain really returns to the forecast. Most of next week will probably see highs in the upper 80s.

We’re done with the organized, heavy rainfall. Really. We may still see some scattered showers today, but we’re heading toward sunnier skies and warmer weather. The forecast for the weekend remains somewhat in flux, with a chance of showers on Saturday, but overall it looks reasonably nice for the Memorial Day period.

Wednesday

The radar is quiet across the region this morning, and moisture levels have fallen. We still may see a few scattered, short-lived showers pop up this afternoon, as temperatures approach their highs in the mid- to upper-80s, but I think most of us will stay dry. Skies will see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with lows tonight dropping into the low 70s.

Thursday

As the atmosphere stabilizes, and high pressure expands westward into Texas, our rain chances will drop even lower on Thursday to less than 10 percent. With partly to mostly sunny skies, highs should climb into the upper 80s with only light southerly winds. Lows Thursday night will again be warm, only dropping into the low 70s.

Friday

With partly sunny skies, highs on Friday may work themselves toward 90 degrees for some inland parts of the metro area on Friday. The big question is how far a weak front will get on Friday night, and what that means for our weather this weekend. For Friday, this will bring a slight chance of showers during the afternoon and evening hours for areas north of Interstate 10.

Saturday, Sunday, and Memorial Day

This front, and a passing disturbance, will probably drive more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday morning as it pushes closer to the Houston area. In terms of accumulations, I think we’re talking tenths of an inch for most, with the better rain chances north of Interstate 10. I don’t think the showers will persist all day, as the disturbance driving them should move on.

The question, again, is what happens to the front. I think it will get shoved to the coast, of not off. If this happens we can probably expect partly sunny skies on Saturday afternoon, with highs in the mid-80s. Sunday would be rather pleasant, with drier air and highs in the mid-80s and sunny skies. Some clouds may return for Memorial Day. Rain chances look low for Sunday and Monday, as high pressure fills in, and don’t really return until the middle of next week.

Good morning. Not going to lie, the intensity of storms on Monday surprised me. First, some areas northwest of Houston saw as much as 6 inches of rainfall. Then, early on Monday evening parts of Austin County—only about 60 miles west of Houston—saw about 10 inches in a short period of time. So it’s with more than a little trepidation that I approach the forecast today.

Generally, we should see fairly calm conditions this morning, with storm coverage increasing this afternoon as temperatures warm. A flash flood watch is in effect for central and western parts of our region due to the potential for additional heavy rainfall today.

Tuesday

The atmosphere remains plenty moist to support heavy rainfall today, particularly north and west of the Highway 59/Interstate 69 corridor. This includes the particularly hard hit areas of Austin County. In this general area we are likely to see widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches today, with higher isolated totals approaching 5 inches. Given the sodden soils well west of Houston, this could cause some problems both on roadways and along swollen creeks. These storms are likely to develop after noon, and wane during the evening as the sun begins to set. Highs will otherwise be about 80 degrees.

Wednesday

Atmospheric moisture levels should begin to fall on Wednesday, and accordingly we expect much less coverage of showers, and less intensity where rain does fall. Overall, perhaps 30 percent of the area will see rain on Wednesday, with highs reaching perhaps the mid-80s. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure continues to build over the area, we expect these to be mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. This should allow for the region to begin to dry out.

Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day

Let’s start with the fact that we have questions about the weekend forecast. It will be complicated by an approaching, weak front that appears likely to stall out just north of Houston. Skies will probably start out at least partly cloudy on Saturday, and depending on the movement of the front, areas north of Interstate 10 could see some scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours. These may even spread across the entire region. Not helpful, I know.

Sunday’s weather will also depend on the front’s position, but there is a better chance for more sunshine on Sunday. Both days should produce highs in the upper 80s. Memorial Day will probably fall on the partly to mostly sunny side of things, but overall confidence is low. Sorry, I know everyone has weekend plans, and would like some certainty.