Eric Berger

Our weather: Mostly dry and plenty hot, with a wary eye on the tropics

Good morning. A front is having subtle effects on Houston’s weather, but we’re still going to be plenty hot in the coming days. High temperatures should moderate slightly by the weekend, but we’re still looking at mostly sunny weather for several days. Next week our weather will be guided, to some extent at least, by any tropical systems that move into the Gulf of Mexico. We’re not seeing any direct threats, at least not yet, and Matt will have a full rundown later today on the tropical state of play.

Low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be slightly cooler than we’ve been seeing for most of August. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

Expect hot and sunny conditions to prevail, with highs pushing into the upper 90s to 100 degrees this afternoon as drier air helps with warming. Despite the drier air, models are picking up a slug of moisture in the lower atmosphere that may help to generate some scattered showers primarily on the western half of the metro area later today. This should be pushed away by this evening as additional dry air continues to move in, both at the surface and above. This should set the stage for a slightly cooler night, with lows dropping into the mid-70s across much of the city. The coast, alas, is still going to see pretty normal humidity for this time of year.

Wednesday

This will be a hot and sunny day, with drier air in evidence. Expect highs in the upper 90s, with sunny skies and light winds out of the north. Temperatures should again moderate reasonably quickly as the sun sets, and drier help helps.

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Yes, an August “front” has moved into Houston

Good morning. The Houston region saw its first real taste of rainfall in two weeks early on Monday as a line of storms pushed from north to south through the area. It was hit or miss in the metro area, with some parts of the region picking up as much as 1.5 inches, and others seeing lightning, but no real rainfall. The storms heralded the arrival of a front that will eventually bring some drier air into the region—which we’ll feel this in the morning and evening.

Monday

Some rain chances will linger into this morning, but as drier air moves in we should see gradually diminished precipitation throughout the day. By this afternoon skies should be partly to mostly sunny, and we can expect highs to reach the upper 90s. Winds will be light, but out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures will be a degree or two cooler tonight, but the real effect will be in the “feels like” department, not the actual mercury. This effect will be more pronounced north of I-10 than along the coast.

NAM model forecast for dew points at 7pm CT Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

As more dry air filters into the region we’ll see a hot and sunny day. Temperatures will push into the upper 90s, and probably touch 100 degrees for inland areas. If you’re thinking, this sure doesn’t feel like a front, well, you’re right. But this is how cool fronts in August go. There won’t be much impact to temperatures, but evenings and mornings should feel somewhat drier. Instead of dew points of around 70 degrees, which is very sticky and muggy, dew points around sunrise and around sunset may be be about 10 degrees lower away from the immediate coast. A dew point of 60 degrees is definitely not fall-like, but it’s also definitely not “dog’s breath” weather like we normally get in the summer, either. Small victories, people.

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As we enter the second half of August, deep tropics heating up

Over the last week a pair of non-consequential tropical systems have formed over the Atlantic—Tropical Storm Josephine, which is weakening at sea, and Kyle, which has already dissipated. However as a more favorable pattern for rising air moves into the deep Atlantic tropics we can expect to see storms firing up in the main development region between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean Sea. This indicates we likely will see stronger hurricanes begin to develop in the coming weeks.

To that end, the National Hurricane Center has begun tracking two areas of interest that are moving generally westward across the Atlantic Ocean, toward the Caribbean Sea.

7am CT Sunday tropical outlook. (National Hurricane Center)

If we take a look at the satellite image this morning, we can see that both of these tropical waves are not yet close to becoming organized. And looking at some global model forecasts, neither of these are slam-dunk systems in the sense that they’re guaranteed to eventually develop into tropical storms or hurricanes.

Annotated satellite image from 8am CT Sunday. (NOAA)

However, it does seem likely that at least one of these systems, or another wave yet to move off Africa, will find the right conditions over the Atlantic, move into the Caribbean Sea, and eventually threaten the Gulf of Mexico. That is certainly what we’ll be watching for over the next few weeks. We’ve been telling you for awhile that the latter half of August and September will be likely busy in the tropics. Now, that time is at hand.

Heat continues, and a word on Hurricane Ike

Our forecast is going to be very hot, with heat advisories likely needed through the weekend. Before jumping into the details, such as they are, I wanted to say a word about Hurricane Ike.

We are, amazingly, coming up on the 12th anniversary of Hurricane Ike. If you don’t remember, the storm hit Houston fairly hard, but made landfall just far enough east of Galveston that the worst of its storm surge missed Galveston Bay. It represented an enormous wake-up call for the region in terms of vulnerability of coastal residents, as well as the Houston Ship Channel. Unfortunately, while we have studied the problem in depth, we have yet to commit to any major projects that would address the threat and mitigate surge. There are two main proposals: A Coastal Spine Project led by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the General Land Office, and an astonishingly beautiful Galveston Bay Park that would protect the Houston Ship Channel from a 25-foot storm surge.

Visualization of park space that would exist on Galveston Bay Park. (SSPEED Center)

While we certainly realize that America and Texas have a lot of other problems to deal with at present, it is time to pick one, or both, of these projects to move forward with for the good of the greater Houston region. Otherwise, we may not get so lucky with the next large hurricane that makes landfall along the upper Texas coast.

Thursday

Houston’s high temperature hit 101 degrees on Wednesday at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and we can probably expect more of the same today with mostly sunny skies. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for now through Friday evening, and in truth it probably will be extended through the weekend as high pressure continues to influence our weather. Southwest winds of 5 mph will provide very little cooling today. Nights will remain sticky and warm.

Heat Index temperatures will again be smoking hot on Thursday in the region. (Weather Bell)

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

More. Of. The. Same. It’s probably worth mentioning that we could see a few isolated showers pop up during the afternoon, with daytime heating. I’d sure welcome one, but it seems a forlorn hope at this point.

Next week

The heat should back off somewhat by Tuesday, as some sort of weak cool front approaches the area. We still don’t have great confidence in how far this front will reach, but it should help to increase rain chances by Monday night or Tuesday, and then knock back daytime highs into the low- or mid-90s. We’d love to get some dry air to help with nighttime temperatures, but I’m not ready to bet on that yet.