Eric Berger

Good morning. It’s the winter solstice, meaning today is the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. For Houston, that means 10 hours, and 14 minutes of daylight, compared the longest day of 14 hours, 3 minutes in June. The further north you go, of course, the more extreme the differences become. Beginning tomorrow, days will gradually lengthen until the summer solstice.

The shortest day also means the longest night—and this year there is a treat. Tonight Jupiter and Saturn will be making their closest observable conjunction in the night sky since the year 1226. This should be visible from most of Houston, despite the city’s bright lights. All one needs to do is go outside about an hour after sunset, around 6:30 pm. Find a clear view of the southwest horizon and look for the brightest object in the sky aside from the Moon. This will be Jupiter, and Saturn will be the fainter object next to it. These are the two largest planets in the Solar System, and although they appear in close proximity, they’re actually 456 million miles apart. Houston should hopefully have partly clear skies this evening.

Monday

Visibility across much of the area is good this morning, but fairly dense fog has developed right along the coast. It should dissipate by 9 am or so. As the high pressure that dominated Houston’s weather on Sunday moves off to the east, we’ll see winds turn to come from the south. This should allow temperatures to climb into the mid- to upper-60s later today beneath mostly sunny skies. Clouds will form tonight, likely keeping lows to around 50 degrees for much of Houston—although it will be cooler inland. Some fog may again develop early on Tuesday.

Tuesday

This will be another day like Monday, with mostly sunny skies after fog in the morning, and highs pushing up toward 70 degrees. Winds will be out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Lows Tuesday night will be fairly warm for December, only falling into the upper 50s for most areas.

Wednesday

This will be the warmest day of the week, as our southerly flow continues. Despite partly cloudy skies, highs will get into the mid-70s. That will change later in the day as a cold front approaches, and passes through the region. Although confidence in the front’s timing is not absolute, we expect it to push through western areas during the afternoon hours, and off the coast during the evening. Some brief, light rain will be possible, but I don’t expect accumulations of more than a tenth of an inch, or two, for most areas. Lows Wednesday night will drop to about 40 degrees in Houston.

Christmas Eve

This will be a cold and windy day. Most of the area should see winds gusting into the 30s on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Winds will slowly back down during the day, but will still be noticeable. With highs only rising into the 50s, despite sunny skies, it will feel chilly outside. Throughout the day we’re going to see very dry air moving into the region, and dewpoints are going to crash. This will set the stage for a cold night, with lows dropping into the 30s for all areas but the coast.

Christmas Day

As a result of this, Christmas Day will start out cold. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, however, and temperatures should warm to about 60 degrees for much of the area. It will be another chilly night, but most of the area stays in the 40s this time, probably.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see a warming trend, with highs in the 60s, to possibly 70 degrees, by Sunday. Skies should be partly sunny. Another front may arrive Sunday night.

Just a quick Saturday update to say the latest forecast modeling suggests rainfall later today could be a bit stronger than anticipated. At this point we think much of the region may see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with the possibility of 3 inches for areas south and east of Harris County. Some minor street flooding may briefly occur.

In terms of timing, we expect rainfall chances to increase as the morning progresses, with a band of storms forming west of Houston shortly before noon and moving eastward. This band of storms should be near or off the coast by around 4pm this afternoon. A cold front will sweep through behind this band, rapidly bringing an end to the storm activity. We still anticipate mostly sunny conditions on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s.

Looking further ahead, Christmas Day still looks quite cold. We will of course have a comprehensive update for you on Monday morning.

Good morning—and is definitely a cold one, especially for those of you in areas like Conroe and Cleveland who are experiencing temperatures in the 20s. We’ll now see a warming trend through Saturday, before another front arrives to keep our weather on the cool and sunny side. Our forecast for Christmas Day continues to call for a cold start and a cool day, although there remains a fair bit of wiggle room in the details.

Thursday

Sunny skies and light winds will allow temperatures to rise this morning, and highs should get into the mid- to upper-50s by this afternoon. Our skies will remain clear heading into this evening, although a light wind shift from the east should make for a slightly more moderate night. Expect lows in Houston to drop to around 40 degrees, with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler weather inland.

Friday

As winds become more southeasterly on Friday, we’ll start to see the development of a few clouds in the morning. As highs reach into the mid-60s or so during the afternoon hours, we should start to see partly to mostly cloudy skies. We may see some light rain chances during the evening hours, but the better opportunities for rain will come after midnight.

Saturday

An approaching cold front will help generate widespread light to moderate showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, on Saturday. For now, I expect accumulations will be 0.25 to 0.75 inch for most areas, and rains should end by the afternoon or early evening hours as a front pushes through the metro area. Highs Saturday night should reach about 70 degrees ahead of the front, dropping fairly quickly after the front’s passage. Overnight lows on Saturday night should generally drop into the 40s.

Sunday

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, Sunday should be the pick of the litter, with clearing skies and highs in the mid-60s. Winds will generally be light, but could remain at about 15 mph just along the coast as cool, dry air moves into the region. Lows Sunday night will again drop into the 40s.

The week of Christmas

We’ll see a warming trend beginning on Tuesday as the onshore flow becomes more pronounced, and temperatures probably will reach 70 degrees by Wednesday. Some light rain showers will be possible mid-week with the increased moisture. All eyes will then turn toward our next cold front, which will set the stage for conditions on Christmas Eve and Day.

Right now there seems to be general agreement in the models that this front will push into Houston late on Wednesday evening, or early Thursday morning—but with nearly seven days until that time frame I’m hesitant to lend too much credence to precise timing. However, under this scenario Christmas Eve may see clearing skies, and Christmas morning would be quite cold. I think temperatures could be in the 30s for much of the area. Alas, the atmosphere would be dry, so don’t expect a White Christmas in Houston this year.

Good morning. Skies are clearing across the metro area, and the region will now see a few days of sunshine before the arrival of yet another front brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. But mostly, we’re just going to see cool, December-like weather in the days ahead.

Wednesday

Winds are blowing out of the northwest this morning at 10 to 15 mph across the area, and this influx of colder and drier air will make for a cool day. High temperatures are unlikely to rise further than the mid-50s, despite the ample sunshine. Mostly clear skies and light winds will make for a cold night, with a light freeze possible north and west of Houston, with the urban center likely remaining several degrees above freezing.

Thursday

We can expect another splendidly sunny day, with temperatures a few degrees warmer as highs climb to around 60 degrees for much of the area. Winds will shift to come from the south later in the day on Thursday, and this will make for a warmer night, with lows likely only falling into the 40s for most areas.

Friday

We’ll start to see some clouds on Friday, and high temperatures should push into the mid- to upper 60s in response to the onshore flow. At this point I think skies will remain mostly sunny throughout the day, with any rain holding off until the evening or more likely overnight hours. Lows on Friday night may not drop below 60 degrees for some areas.

Saturday

The best chances for rain will come between midnight on Friday and Saturday before noon. Most areas will probably see only a few tenths of an inch of rain before a front arrives during the afternoon hours to dry the atmosphere out. We may end up seeing at least partly sunny skies on Saturday, in addition to the rain. Highs will probably reach 70 degrees ahead of the front before a chilly night.

Sunday

Expect mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps in the low 60s. Sunday night may see temperatures drop into the low 40s for much of the area except for the coast.

Next week, and Christmas Day

The region should warm up back to near 70 degrees by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and then it becomes a waiting game to determine the timing and strength of the next front that will determine our weather for Christmas Day. Right now, I think this front may arrive any time between next Wednesday, Wednesday night, or Christmas Eve. At this point, the bulk of the model guidance shows the coldest morning coming on Christmas morning, with the potential for lows in the low 40s, or even upper 30s, but it’s difficult to have much confidence at this point in precise temperatures. Some rainfall may well accompany this front, but it likely will end before temperatures get cold enough to produce any chance of wintry precipitation—sorry kids.