Eric Berger

Good morning. The primary weather issues we’re watching this week are the approach of Tropical Storm Sally toward the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts, local rain chances, and the potential for a modest cool front to arrive this weekend. The latter should bring slightly cooler temperatures and some welcome drier air.

Monday

The area of low pressure off the Texas coast that drove widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday has moved south, and thus the chance for rain today will be less. Some coastal areas, and locations far west of Houston, may still see scattered showers but for the most part we should be dry. High temperatures should otherwise get into the low- to mid-90s with partly sunny skies. Yes, it will be another hot, summer-like day. Winds will be out of the north at about 10 mph—but this isn’t due to a front or anything, it’s because we’ll be on the backside of distant Sally. More on this storm below. Lows tonight will probably drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As the region remains on the backside of Sally, we should see a persistent, if light northerly wind. This should help to limit cloud cover during the middle of the week. This, in turn, will allow highs to push into the mid-90s on Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for only some isolated showers. So yeah, hot.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week should see a slightly more perturbed atmosphere, and this could push rain chances into the 40 percent range, or so, for both days. We will expect that partly sunny skies will allow highs to reach 90 degrees, or the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

It will be a fairly close thing, but for now we generally think a front will reach the coast on Saturday. Our weekend forecast will depend upon the timing and strength of the front, as well as on whether it actually makes it. But overall, we’d anticipate highs somewhere in the upper 80s, with lows of around 70 degrees—areas inland may see 60s but it’s hard to say for sure. The drier air should be noticeable, however, making for pleasant mornings and evenings this weekend. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny.

Tropical Storm Sally

Fortunately we have not seen too much intensification with Sally overnight—this is something we feared might happen. It is now a 65-mph tropical storm. Although Sally still has about a day to intensify, this relative lack of organization means it is mostly likely the system comes ashore as a Category 1 hurricane. The current track, just east of New Orleans, would spare the city the worst in terms of storm surge and winds. Our primary concern remains the potential for very heavy rainfall from southeastern Louisiana through the Mississippi and Alabama coastal areas. Later in the week, the slow-moving Sally could produce very heavy rains across much of the state of Alabama.

The tropics remain incredibly active at this time—Tropical Storm Teddy has formed far out to sea, where it will curve north away from the United States—and we’ll continue to watch things closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico where the waters are quite warm.

Good morning, Houston. As we watch the region’s first front approach our area, peter out, and die, I wanted to remind you one final time of Reliant’s sweepstakes to win a free AC System. We’ve already had one winner, but there’s still a second chance to win if you enter by next Tuesday. You can find an entry form, and details of the giveaway right here. It’s an entire, brand-new system—quite a deal.

Thursday

The aforementioned front has made it through College Station, and is pushing into areas such as Katy. It may make it all the way to northern parts of the I-45 corridor this morning, but it is quickly weakening. As the front stalls we should see showers develop over central and eastern parts of the area later this morning and during the afternoon. It will be the same drill as recent days, with hit-or-miss thunderstorms. High temperatures will vary widely today, from upper 70s far west of Houston to low 90s along the coast. As drier air filters in to the region, lows on Friday morning may be a few degrees cooler than normal for most of the metro region.

Friday and Saturday

Any semblance of the front will be gone by Friday, as summer returns in full force. Both of these days should see partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid- to upper 90s. Rain chances will be lower, likely with only a few isolated to scattered showers developing during the afternoon.

Sunday through Wednesday

An upper level low pressure system will combine with a surge of tropical moisture during the first half of next week to bring better rain chances across the entire region, probably beginning later on Sunday. Right now we’re not looking at anything extreme, but I think most of Houston can probably expect to see 0.5 to 2 inches of rain between Sunday and Wednesday or so. Increased cloud cover should also help to keep highs by Sunday or Monday in the low 90s. Overall, warm, humid, summer-like weather will continue at least into next weekend.

Tropics

There are a couple of yellow blobs on the National Hurricane Center’s outlook for the next five days near the Gulf of Mexico, with 20 and 30 percent chances to develop into tropical depressions or storms over the next five days. Right now we don’t anticipate either developing into strong tropical systems, but these will be helping to drive the rain chances we mentioned earlier, beginning perhaps on Sunday.

Today is such a disappointing day, my friends. As we look off to the west, we’re going to see an approaching front that, by all appearances, is going to die on our doorstep. The map below shows the likely extent of the front’s cooling by Thursday morning at 10 am CT. If the front makes it any further eastward—which is possible, although not particularly likely, we’ll consider ourselves lucky. The crushing part of all this is that our next chance for a real front probably will not come for another 10 to 12 days.

Wednesday

Today will be a day much like Tuesday, which is to say partly sunny skies with a decent chance of rain showers. However the heaviest rains will remain west of our region, over Central Texas, along the approaching front. The additional clouds should help to moderate temperatures a bit locally, with highs perhaps only reaching the low 90s. The front itself will likely bring a wind shift overnight, as winds blow from the northeast. But alas, this is likely to bring little sensible change in the weather in Houston.

Thursday

If you live north or west of Houston you may have some slight hope of a drier and cooler day, but for the rest of us Thursday will likely be a hot and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be in the 40 percent range. Thursday night may see some moderate regional cooling overnight, which is to say low- to mid-70s rather than upper 70s. And that will be the probable extent of the front’s influence on our weather—enjoy!

Friday and Saturday

Summer continues, with a pair of sunny days, highs in the mid-90s, and relatively low rain chances.

Sunday and beyond

An upper-level low pressure system may combine with increased moisture at the surface to drive more widespread showers from the Sunday through Tuesday period next week, although our overall confidence in the details is low. My yard could use a few inches of rain so I’m hoping this particular forecast verifies.

Tropics

There has been no real change since Matt’s excellent overview posted on Tuesday. We still see no immediate threats to the Gulf but we’re remaining watchful as we reach the peak of the 2020 season.