Eric Berger

Some advice on evacuating from a hurricane during a pandemic

On Wednesday, the longest-running seasonal forecast program, based at Colorado State University, issued an updated outlook for the remainder of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. In a word, it’s going to be active. The forecasters are predicting a remarkable 15 more named storms this year, along with 10 additional hurricanes. This is very busy.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30, but for Texas’ purposes the chances of a hurricane strike fall dramatically after September. So realistically, we’ve got about eight weeks in front of us that we’re really going to have to stay on top of the tropics in the greater Houston area.

Updated forecast from the Colorado State University for 2020 Atlantic season.

One of the biggest issues complicating this year’s hurricane season is that, in addition to the overall tropical activity, it will occur against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus remains quite active in the greater Houston area, as well as statewide. So with this post Matt and I wanted to provide some basic information about preparing for hurricanes in such an environment. We reached out to both city and county officials for up-to-date information.

Probably the most important thing about preparing for this season is taking the time now to think about how the pandemic will change your plans with regard to your family, any pets, any loved ones in harms way, and more. With hurricanes we sometimes have days and days of warnings, and sometimes we have 48 hours or less with a late-developing storm, or one making a quick turn. Preparing a disaster kit (see checklist), having a plan to protect key records, knowing your home’s vulnerability to storm surge flooding (see map), and under what circumstances you should evacuate are all things that can be done well in advance of a storm.

“It’s vital that everyone in our community take time and effort to prepare, regardless of the circumstances of the time or what the predictions are,” Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo told Space City Weather. “As we’re all seeing, hurricane season doesn’t give us the courtesy of taking a year off just because we’re coping with a pandemic. Now, more than ever, we implore everyone to develop a plan, to put together an emergency kit, and to build a kit. As you prepare for this hurricane season, take some time to look over your family’s emergency plan and see how COVID-19 may affect it.”

Preparing to evacuate

In recognition of this hurricane season as an abnormal one during a pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has published a guide on COVID-19 and hurricanes. Here are some of the highlights from this information:

  • If you may need to evacuate, prepare a “go kit” with personal items you cannot do without during an emergency. Include items that can help protect you and others from COVID-19, such as hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol, bar or liquid soap, disinfectant wipes (if available) and two masks for each person.
  • Determine now where you will evacuate to. How will you get there? This detailed map of evacuation routes (it’s a big file) will help you plan now.
  • If you are staying with friends and family, talk now about how you would best protect yourselves from COVID-19. If you plan on staying in a hotel, check now to see if they’re open, and can accommodate your needs.
  • Pay attention to local guidance about updated plans for evacuations and shelters, including shelters for your pets.

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Scattered storms possible Wednesday evening in Houston

Houston will see fairly typical August weather for the next week, which is not entirely bad news. This is the time of year when temperatures can soar into the triple digits—but the absence of a strong high pressure system will keep our highs a little bit more moderate. We also, at least at this time, see no evidence of really heavy, organized rainfall. In short, we’ll take it.

Wednesday

Of the remaining days in this work week, Wednesday may be the most active due to the passing of a disturbance in the upper atmosphere. Skies should be mostly sunny today, with highs rising into the upper 90s and calm winds. But by this afternoon daytime heating will combine with the disturbance to at least produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the modeling shows this development to the east of Interstate 45, and some have the activity closer to Beaumont than Houston. Regardless, know it’s possible for thunderstorms to spin up this afternoon and evening before dying down with the loss of daytime heating.

NAM model forecast for radar reflectivity at 8pm CT Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure builds over Houston we can probably expect a pair of mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances should be quite low, probably 10 percent or less.

Saturday and Sunday

The high’s influence should diminish over the weekend, returning Houston to a pattern of partly to mostly sunny days, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. We’ll again see the possibility of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but most likely they’ll be scattered.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

Honestly, there’s not much to say about the extended pattern. We expect similar conditions to more or less prevail for awhile—not too hot, not too wet. As we’ve said, this is probably about as good as we can expect for August.

Mostly even-Steven weather for Houston during the coming week

Good morning! Houston weather will be doing Houston things for the rest of this week, which means you can expect our customary heat and humidity. But given that our weather will neither be exceptionally hot or exceptionally wet in the days ahead, we’ll take that and be happy in August.

Tuesday

This will be another day a lot like Monday, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, at only about 5 mph, out of the west. This should allow high temperatures to nudge up into the mid- or possibly even upper-90s for areas well inland, while remaining several degrees cooler near the coast. As temperatures rise into the 90s, we may see the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the metro area, sagging southward into Houston during the late afternoon or early evening hours. Rain chances are likely about 30 percent, or a tad less.

Most of Texas will be in the 100s by Wednesday, but the Houston area should remain in the mid-90s. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday

Expect more of the same conditions as Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the mid-90s. We will again see a chance for the development of some briefly lived, south-moving showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. As will be the case for most of this week, nighttime lows will barely drop into the 70s for most of the region, with partly cloudy skies. Humidity will be ample, of course.

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August begins, and as always it will be a month to survive in Houston

Well Houston, we’ve made it to the start of August. Historically this is the hottest, steamiest month of the year, when the average high is 95 degrees, and the average low 75. I look at it like this: If you’re in Houston in August and the high temperature is not in the upper 90s or higher, the streets aren’t flooding, and you’re not concerned about an impending hurricane—it’s a win. August is a month to survive, with the promise of better weather down the road. And hey, two days are already down!

Monday

Some surprisingly robust storms developed north of Interstate 10 on Sunday, and although the atmosphere is slightly less favorable today, we may see some additional development over inland areas this afternoon that moves southward toward I-10. This would start up during the warmest part of the day, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s, and potentially combine with the sea breeze. These isolated to scattered thunderstorms could produce briefly heavy winds and rains through the evening. Skies, otherwise, should be mostly sunny, with calm winds providing no relief during the hottest part of the day. Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper 70s.

NAM model shows potential some development across the area at 7pm CT Monday. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

This should be a day similar to Monday, that starts out with sunny skies, but then sees development of storms during the hotter part of the day. Again, aerial coverage should be about 30 percent. High temperatures will likely reach into the upper 90s for inland areas, and a few degrees cooler along the coast.

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