Sunny, winter-like weather will prevail until Thursday for Houston

Good morning. December has started out on the chilly side, with average temperatures generally running about 5 degrees below normal since the start of the month. The question is, will this trend continue? As you may recall, seasonal forecasts predicted a generally warmer than normal winter for the region. This probably still holds as I think the middle of December will likely bring warmer weather—with a sustained stretch of highs in the 70s—but right now I’m not seeing any evidence in the models of abnormally weather for weeks on end. I guess we’ll just have to see how things unfold.

Monday

Conditions are clear and cool this morning, with temperatures generally in the 40s across the region. We’ll see a splendid winter day, with highs climbing into the mid-60s for much of Houston, along with sunny skies, and light northerly winds. With clear skies and light winds prevailing overnight, lows on Monday night may drop into the upper 30s for a few areas north and west of Houston, but generally most of the city should remain the 40s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Temperatures will warm slightly, with a pair of sunny days expected. Highs will reach about 70 degrees both days, with lows both nights generally in the upper 40s—although the coast will probably only fall into the low 50s. Dry air will prevail. However, by Wednesday evening or so, the onshore flow will return, and this will presage warmer nights and better rain chances later in the week.

Thursday and Friday

With southerly winds, we may start to see some clouds on Thursday, but rain chances should hold off until Friday. Highs likely will reach the mid-70s on Thursday, but the overnight temperature will be much warmer, likely only dropping into the low- to mid-60s for much of the metro area. Friday will see more clouds and healthy rain chances. Right now I’m expecting only modest accumulations, with 0.25 to 1 inch of rain for most of the area. Highs Friday should again reach into the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend outlook remains a bit uncertain. The most likely scenario is that a cold front pushes into the region by late Friday night or early Saturday morning, leading to sunny and cooler weather for both weekend days. But the ensemble members of both the GFS and European models are not fully bought in—so for now our forecast is a “probably.” If the front stalls before pushing through Houston, Saturday may end up rather warm and potentially rainy before the front more definitively pushes through on Saturday night or Sunday.

Next week

Houston will probably see something of a warming trend by Tuesday or so of next week and after that it may be a bit before we see another front. This is the time where I could see a week or so of warmer weather in the December 15 to 20 range—but we’re now getting to the point where forecasting becomes highly speculative.