Today Houston will see some of its driest June air in years

Winds have shifted to come from the north this morning, and dewpoints are falling in the wake of a cold front passage. On Tuesday morning at 6am CT, the dewpoint temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport was 75 degrees; this morning at the same time it is 55 degrees. The lower the dewpoint, the drier the air feels, and it makes quite a difference. There is a chance dewpoints in parts of the city could fall below 50 degrees later today and this evening.

To get a sense of how rare such a front is during the summer months of June, July, and August, consider historical dewpoints in June. Matt compiled how many times the dewpoint has fallen below 50 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, since 1980. Here’s the list of days, with the number of hours below 50 degrees:

  • Jun 1, 1984 (5 hrs)
  • Jun 11, 1988 (4 hrs)
  • Jul 13, 1990 (3 hrs)
  • Jun 9, 1996 (1 hr)
  • Jun 1, 2012 (4 hrs)

So if you’ve been wondering why meteorologists are making a big deal out of a “front” that only knocks high temperatures down into the low- to mid-90s, the answer is very dry air. It will have a meaningful effect on both humidity and temperatures this evening when you walk outside.

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday

Nearly all of Harris County missed out on rain showers as the front moved through this morning, as they ended up developing east and south of the region. High temperatures today will go up into the low-90s with sunny skies. Winds will blow from the north at 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the 60s for most of the area—heavenly for mid-June to be sure—but we’ll probably remain above the record low for June 11 of 61 degrees, set in 1976.

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A rare June cool front is still in the cards for tonight

A few areas south of Houston saw some light to moderate showers on Monday, and the region will have one more shot at rain early on Wednesday morning. But after that conditions look really dry for at least a week or 10 days. Fortunately, the entire Houston metro area is at present drought-free. In fact, most of Texas is doing quite well for early June, with just 1.3 percent of the state in a “severe” drought or worse. This is a pretty decent posture in which to head into the hot summer months.

U.S. Drought Monitor released June 4.

As local residents will know, during the middle of summer Houston often gets stuck beneath domes of high pressure for which it will not rain for days and days. Oftentimes, this pattern will only break with the incursion of tropical moisture. And then we enter the feast-or-famine state in which we can go from a drought to flooding within a couple of hours. So it goes along the Gulf Coast, during the summer. (At present we see no indications of tropical activity in the Gulf after Cristobal).

Tuesday

Speaking of heat, today will be hot and humid, so take care this afternoon when temperatures push into the upper 90s and the heat index soars into the 100s. Skies will be partly sunny, with light winds from the south. Weather conditions today will be a “proper” summer day in that it will mirror the kind of weather we typically see at the peak of heating in Houston, during late July and much of August. You’ve been warned.

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Hurricane season started with a bang—so what does that mean?

Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall on Sunday evening in southeastern Louisiana, bringing winds, waves, and heavy rainfall to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This seems as good of a time as any to take stock of a frenetic start to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and assess what it means for the rest of the year.

Busy start

Cristobal formed on June 2 in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, and this was the earliest ever point in the Atlantic season that the third named storm has formed in a given year. (However imperfect, the Atlantic basin has records dating back to 1851). The previous earliest “C” storm was Colin, on June 5, 2016. Arthur and Bertha, which were both relatively weak and short lived storms, formed this year even before the season officially began on June 1.

This may seem like an ominous beginning to what seasonal forecasters have predicted to be a busy season. But according to hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, there is little correlation between early season storms and the total activity (in terms of number of storms and their overall intensity) for the remainder of the year. In fact, the correlation is slightly negative.

Correlation between seasonal activity and first named-storm formation. (Phil Klotzbach)

What this means is that we’re not really going to know the full tale of the 2020 season until about August, when activity in the tropical Atlantic Ocean—known as the Main Development Region—gets fired up. This is the period of summer when we start to watch tropical waves spin off the western coast of Africa, and develop into tropical systems as they migrate westward across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean Sea. We’re still about six to eight weeks from the opening of this period.

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Yes, a bonafide front is on the way Tuesday night

Good morning. This week will start out very hot for June, but as Matt noted on Friday an actual cool front will arrive by Tuesday night to bring some relief from the humidity. Days are are still going to be hot of course, but the drier air in the wake of this front will definitely make for some pleasant evenings and mornings that are rare in Houston, in June.

Monday

The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal has now moved inland over southern Louisiana and Mississippi and is bringing heavy rains to the deep south. Houston likes on the extreme western edge of the storm and may see some very scattered, brief showers as a result today. However, skies will be mostly sunny and the bigger story will be heat as high temperatures push into the mid- or upper 90s today. (For reference, highs in most locations on Sunday peaked at about 95 degrees). Winds will be out of the west at 5 to 10 mph, and lows tonight will provide little relief with temperatures falling only to around 80 degrees for most.

As of Monday morning, Houston lies on the far western end of Cristobal. (kktv.com)

Tuesday

This will be the warmest day of the week for Houston—and probably the warmest day so far of 2020. With mostly sunny skies and a light southerly wind, expect highs to reach the upper 90s, with some inland areas possibly pushing 100 degrees. Typically, Houston records its first 100-degree day in mid-July, so this would be quite early.

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