Eric Berger

Houston’s brief flirtation with cooler, spring-like weather over the weekend has ended with the resumption of an onshore flow over the region. This will set the stage for a warm, and mostly dry week that will bring the warmest weather of 2020 so far into the region, with conditions positively summer-like by the middle of this week. It’s not out of the question that Houston hits the 90s.

Monday

Under the influence of very moist, southerly air, we should see mostly cloudy skies on Monday with a high in the low 80s. Sunshine may break through near the coast and in Houston later today. Some isolated showers are definitely possible, but for the most part the region should remain rain-free, with light winds. Lows Monday night will probably only fall to around 70 degrees for most of the area.

Tuesday

After another warm start to the day, highs on Tuesday should climb into the mid-80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be more noticeable, gusting up to 25 mph out of the southwest in response to an approaching front that will stall out near or north of Houston. Lows Tuesday night should drop into the mid-60s.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday

Temperatures and humidity levels should really pop during the middle of the week, with high pressure settling over the area. The combination of a warm southerly flow and partly to mostly clear skies should push daytime temperatures into the upper 80s to 90 degrees. (Houston’s last official 90-degree day came on October 20, a little more than five months ago.) Nighttime lows will generally fall into the upper 60s or lower 70s.

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Good morning. The northern hemisphere experiences its earliest vernal equinox in more than a century today—the Sun will cross the equator heading north at 10:49pm CT tonight. Of course Houston has seen spring-like weather for awhile now, and the biggest weather question we have is rainfall. It has generally been a dry start to 2020 for the region, and as a result a moderate drought has emerged for the region. The map below shows “departure from normal” rainfall since around Thanksgiving of last year, and most of Houston is 6 to 8 inches drier than normal during this period.

The good news is that we’re increasingly confident that much of the region, and especially many of the driest areas surrounding Houston, will receive rainfall through this weekend. So let’s get into the forecast.

Thursday

Today will be like much of what we’ve experienced this week—warm with a mix of clouds and sunshine as high temperatures nudge up into the low 80s. Winds will be gusty out of the south again today, likely pushing up to around 20 mph. Some light rain will be possible during the overnight hours, as lows only fall to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Friday morning will begin like much of the rest of this week, quite warm and humid. But around sunrise, showers should form ahead of a cold front north and west of Houston, and push into the city during the pre-noon hours. Rainfall accumulations for most areas north of Interstate 10 should be around 1 inch, with less toward the coast. Some heavy rain is possible, so a few inland areas could see in excess of 2 inches, but the storms should die out during the evening hours as the front pushes through the region. Lows Friday night should drop into the upper 50s for most except the coast.

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Oh, hey, look at this—another warm and humid morning in the middle of March. Temperatures across much of the region on Wednesday morning have not fallen below 70 degrees. We’ll have a couple more days in this pattern before a front arrives to bring some cooler weather along with some much needed rainfall. This rain, along with some wind gusts of 30 mph or higher on Friday, should help with the region’s still extremely high tree pollen.

Wednesday

Highs will go back up to about 80 degrees today, although afternoon temperatures will depend upon the extent of sunshine. Like on Tuesday, when we saw some welcome breaks in the clouds, we may see some sun amidst the gray skies today. One noticeable difference will be winds, which may gust up to 25 mph this afternoon. There will be a slight chance of overnight showers as temperatures fall to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

In all honesty, Thursday’s forecast is pretty much a carbon copy of Wednesday. A capping inversion should again act to limit any showers and thunderstorms as highs again reach about 80 degrees for the region.

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Situation update: Today, all clubs and bars in Houston and Harris County will close for at least 15 days. Restaurants will provide take-out service only. Residents are advised to remain home unless they are grocery shopping, visiting a physician, or on other essential business. These are very difficult measures both socially and economically, but as we explained Sunday, at this point they are essential to help manage the spread of COVID-19. Now, on to the weather.

Tuesday

St. Patrick’s Day in Houston will be warm, humid, and cloudy. We have been in this same pattern, more or less, for more than a week and it’s not going to change until Friday. There is some patchy fog this morning that will burn off later today, with some light southeast winds at the surface, blowing at about 10 mph. Highs will reach around 80 degrees, with lows Tuesday night falling only to around 70 degrees. A capping inversion should keep a lid on any rain chances. Expect pressures to increase for firing the head coach-general manager of the Houston Texans after trading an amazing wide receiver for a second-round pick, a bad contract, and six rolls of toilet paper.

Wednesday

Did you read Tuesday’s forecast? Good, because it’s pretty much the same, although winds from the southeast may be a tad gusty. (And yeah, we’re still going to want Bill O’Brien fired on Wednesday, too).

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