Eric Berger

What a difference a day makes. With clearing skies and dry air, lows this morning have fallen into the 40s across the Houston area. Our forecast for the weekend continues to improve as well, now with at least some sunshine possibly breaking out over the area and diminishing rain chances. Looking a bit further ahead, a stronger front may bring a bit more of a prolonged period of cooler weather next week.

Thursday

Sunshine will prevail for most of the day Thursday, with high temperatures likely holding in the upper 50s. Northerly winds will blow at about 10 mph, gusting perhaps a bit higher, which should be enough to keep a decent chill in the air. Clear skies and light winds will push overnight low temperatures down into the 30s for most inland areas of Houston—although the entirety of the metro area will probably remain above freezing.

Friday

Another pleasant winter day, with sunny skies and high temperatures near 60 degrees. Winds shifting to come from the east should allow for Friday night’s low temperatures to settle in about five degrees warmer than Thursday night.

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This is our last day with gray, soupy weather before a front clears us out on Wednesday night. But as we’ve been saying, the forthcoming winter interlude will only last a couple of days. Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts!

Wednesday

Conditions this morning depend upon where you live, with much warmer conditions in the low 60s right along the coast, where a warm front has pushed back on shore, and lows of around 50 degrees well inland, where the front has not yet reached. Highs today will mostly be in the 60s, with temperatures on the cooler end inland and warmer along the coast. A series of showers—mostly light but possibly with a few heavier thunderstorms—should move through the area this morning and clear by later this afternoon.

For the most part, rainfall totals should be under one-half inch, but we can’t rule out some higher, isolated totals especially north of I-10. A cold front finally pushes through Houston late Wednesday night, dropping lows into the 40s overnight.

Thursday

This will be a mostly sunny, cool day with highs likely in the upper 50s. A northerly breeze gusting up to 20 mph will make it feel a bit cooler. Thursday night will be the coldest night of the week, with lows in the mid- to upper-30s possible for inland areas, with temperatures around 40 in the city.

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Houston’s forecast will continue to be a gray, wet mess for the next couple of days before sunshine returns on Thursday. Unfortunately, this sunny weather will be short-lived with the return of clouds and some rain showers as early as Saturday.

Tuesday

A cold front has pushed just offshore, leading to northerly winds across the metro area and temperatures ranging from the mid-40s north of the city to around 60 degrees right along the coast this morning. The front will slowly lift back to the north today, allowing winds to shift to come from the east. To be frank, it’s not clear how slowly this front will pull back today, and so our temperature forecast is somewhat uncertain. Generally highs will probably get into the low 60s across the region, although areas north and west of Houston will be cooler.

Skies will remain gray today, with the possibility of light rain. We can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but for the most part any showers in Houston today should be light as they move from west to east. Accumulations for most will be about a tenth of an inch or less. Low temperatures tonight will probably only fall a few degrees from daytime highs.

Wednesday

Frankly, we have a lot of questions about Wednesday’s weather as well, because there is just not great agreement on when the next strong front pushes into Houston and off the coast. Highs on Wednesday will likely get somewhere into the 60s, but again there could be a pretty sizable difference in temperatures between west (cooler) and east Houston. Rain chances will be pretty high on Wednesday, but again I expect accumulations to be reasonable, with most areas receiving one-half inch or less.

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The first half of this week will be messy, with slow-moving and stalling cold fronts leading to high rainfall chances and mostly muggy weather. The second half of the week should be clear and cool before unsettled weather returns for the weekend. (We also answer a question we’ve received several times this weekend—is this going to be a bad hurricane season for the Gulf?)

Monday

Temperatures are incredibly warm (about 70 degrees) and muggy this morning, and will remain so today as highs get into the mid-70s under cloudy skies. Throughout the day a front will sag into into the region just northwest of the metro area (see map below), and this will serve as a focus for moderate to heavy rainfall for places such as College Station and areas north of Highway 105. However, the Houston metro area is unlikely to see more than a couple of tenths of an inch of rain today.

Monday night and Tuesday

The front finally pushes through Houston, to the coast, during the overnight hours. This should allow lows in the Houston to drop into the 50s, with light rain. However, almost as soon as the front reaches the coast at sunrise Tuesday, it probably will lift back inland—almost as if Mother Nature were playing an accordion. The bottom line is that light to moderate rainfall chances will continue on Tuesday, especially to the north of Interstate 10. And local temperatures and humidity will vary greatly due to the position of the front. Fog may also be an issue near the coast.

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