Eric Berger

Our blah weather will continue for several more days before a front brings a reprieve next weekend. Expect foggy mornings, cloudy days, and warm nights to persist through Saturday before a merciful front works its way into Houston.

Tuesday

It is quite foggy this morning, and the National Weather Service has issued a dense fog advisory until 10 a.m. due to low visibility. Please take care driving in these conditions. On Monday, showers were most pronounced near the coast, but today they will move farther inland. Beyond that, I have little confidence in rain totals today. Some models show almost no rain over Houston, while some bring up to 2 inches in places like Baytown. I don’t think we’ll see that, but it’s going to be a gray day with a healthy chance of showers. Highs are going up into the mid- to upper-70s, with low in the upper 60s. Like I said, blah.

Wednesday

The only good thing I can say about Wednesday, which will be gray and warm, is that rain chances are quite a bit lower—in the 10 percent chance. Fog remains likely, however, with very light winds and warm air moving over colder water.

Thursday

More of the same. Rain chances will edge back up a bit, but at this point we’re not expecting anything to write home about. A cold front will approach the area, but probably stall north of the area on Thursday. Right now, it appears the front will get to about the northern edge of Montgomery County before retreating quickly back north. Bottom line, there’s a chance of some briefly drier and cooler air to make it into northern parts of the region. For the rest of us, you guessed it: Highs in the upper 70s, clouds, fog, and warm nights.

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Temperatures are generally in the 40s or 50s this morning across Houston, but that’s probably the end of the cool weather until next weekend. A warm front will move onshore today, and will leave us with warm and muggy conditions for most of the rest of the week. Rainfall will never be too far away, but accumulations probably won’t be that significant, likely less than one inch.

Monday

Light showers along the coast should migrate inland along with the warm airmass moving in from the coast. After the rain moves through, we’ll be left with a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s. With a thick cloud deck Houston is unlikely to see much of a change in overnight temperatures. Lows tonight will probably only fall 3 to 5 degrees from high temperatures on Monday.

Tuesday

With the warm, moist air the region will likely see the development of sea fog along the coast as warm air moves over the cooler near-shore waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay. Highs Tuesday will reach the mid-70s. More rain showers will be possible on Tuesday, although at this point they likely will be more scattered than any activity on Monday. Lows Tuesday night are unlikely to fall much below the upper 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be two more gray days, with highs in the upper 70s and warm nights. Rain chances will likely take a step back to the 20 to 30 percent range. The bigger question is whether a cold front makes it all the way down through Texas and into Houston on Thursday. The answer at this point seems to be very likely not, although if you live in Montgomery County or points north there’s a slightly better chance of seeing some cooler and drier air on Thursday and Friday.

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Good afternoon. Just wanted to jump in with an update on storms anticipated for tonight. We’re wary. We’re watching. But we’re not overly worried—and we don’t think you should be either.

This front and associated strong squall line have received a lot of media attention this week, and we’re not entirely sure why. It may be because there really has not been any significant weather to hit Houston for three months or so. But if anything, the model trend today is toward a slightly less severe threat for greater Houston. It’s definitely prudent to be weather-aware tonight. And I wouldn’t be out and about when the squall line hits. But we will face worse threats later this year so let’s temper expectations.

The primary threats tonight are damaging straight-line winds (we may see some gusts above 60mph), potentially a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail. Here’s the timing for the worst of the weather, which should last an hour or less for most locations.

11 pm CT

Midnight

1 am CT

Stay safe! Please know that if conditions come in worse than expected we will be here to update as needed. Other than that, do enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend after the front passes.

We’ll say goodbye to sunshine for a couple of days, and our focus will now turn to the potential for severe weather on Friday night. A strong line of storms will sweep through Houston from west to east, likely from about 9pm to 3am. All of the usual threats will be there—large hail, damaging winds, and potentially tornadoes. Because of the storm’s progressive movement, we do not expect rain totals much above 0.5 to 1.5 for widespread areas, with higher isolated amounts. It may be severe, but it will be over quickly.

Thursday

Today will be mostly cloudy, with southerly winds continuing to pile moisture into the region. However, a fairly stiff capping inversion—this is situation where warmer temperatures higher up in the atmosphere prevent warm, moist air at the surface from rising—should preclude all but some scattered, light showers today. Highs will reach the upper 70s for most of the area, and temperatures Thursday night will not fall much below 70.

Friday

Friday will start out a lot like Thursday, with an increasing chance of storms throughout the afternoon and evening hours. While you may see some showers during the daytime hours (which will be warm, with highs again likely in the upper 70s), the main event will be a line of storms moving through. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has expanded the area of “enhanced” weather somewhat southward and westward. This means it will be possible, but by no means certain that we will see strong wind gusts of 75+ mph, large hail and tornadoes. There will be heavy rainfall too, but it should move through quickly. The bottom line is that if you are out and about on Friday night, be very weather aware. (I’d definitely plan to be home before the storms hit). And if you’re at home, be prepared if a tornado warning is issued for your area.

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