I hope everyone enjoyed that incredible weekend, as our weather this week will involve a number of tricks to go along with a few treats. What we are increasingly confident of is that conditions will probably dry out before Thursday afternoon or evening, with the most likely scenario of cool, breezy, and dry weather for trick-or-treating. Warm costumes are recommended for the kids.
Monday
The onshore flow has kicked into gear, but today should still be a pretty nice one across the Houston area, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs holding to around 80 degrees. Increasing moisture levels will lead to a fairly cloudy night, and as a result low temperatures tonight will not fall much below 70 degrees for most of the metro area.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)
Tuesday and Wednesday
As the amount of moisture in the atmosphere rises, we’ll see a corresponding increase in rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Rain chances on Tuesday will be fairly high, without about two-thirds of the area probably seeing light showers. If you’re heading to the Astros game Tuesday evening, however, we think any daytime rainfall will probably wane by or before game time. Post-game temperatures will be around 70 degrees.
The heavier rainfall will hold off until Wednesday—most likely during the afternoon or overnight hours. In terms of accumulation, we can probably expect between 0.5 to 1.5 inches for most areas through Thursday morning, although we cannot rule out greater accumulations. Highs both days will be around 80 degrees. Let’s hope the Astros wrap the series up Tuesday, because Wednesday evening could definitely a bit wet for any revelry.
Good morning. Muggier weather will briefly return on Thursday before a cold front pushes into Houston on Friday morning. This frontal passage will bring some fairly heavy rainfall to the region from about midnight Thursday through noon Friday, before much cooler air arrives for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday should be brilliantly fall-like.
Thursday
Breezy conditions today will help pull moisture into the region, but we should still see partly sunny skies this morning. (A coastal flood advisory is in effect due to the pronounced onshore flow). High temperatures will likely get into the low 80s, limited later this afternoon by some developing clouds. Some scattered showers are possible later today, but for the most part any heavy rain should hold off until tonight, probably at least a couple of hours after sunset.
Timing of Thursday night and Friday morning’s front. (National Weather Service)
Thursday night through Friday morning
The cold front should reach College Station by around 10pm Thursday night, push into Houston a couple of hours after midnight, and move off the coast before sunrise. The combination of the front, ample Gulf moisture, and favorable dynamics in the upper atmosphere will help generate a broad line of showers and thunderstorms as the front pushes slowly to the southeast. Most parts of the Houston area will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rain between midnight and noon, although we can’t rule out few isolated areas—most likely in Liberty and Galveston counties—seeing up to 4 inches.
After Tuesday’s stellar weather, conditions will turn a little bit warmer before a cold front sweeps into the area toward the end of the week. The big question remains when this will happen—anywhere from early to late Friday—and this timing will help determine how wet things get in Houston.
Wednesday
Most of the region is starting out this morning somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 degrees. An east wind will turn southeasterly later today, allowing for the onshore flow to resume. Winds could become a bit gusty this afternoon. All in all, however, this still should be a pretty nice fall day with high temperatures tickling 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight should fall into the mid-60s for central Houston, a bit warmer to the north, and a bit cooler to the south.
Highs Thursday will reach the 80s for much of Texas ahead of the next cold front. (Pivotal Weather)
Thursday
This should be a more cloudy affair, as moisture begins to stream inland. This will augur the potential for some heavier rain, but for now this appears unlikely before sunset, and most likely after midnight. Highs Thursday will be in the low 80s, with ample humidity, and lows Thursday night probably won’t drop much below 70 degrees.
Note: We’re big fans of the Capital Weather Gang site in Washington D.C. So to mark the beginning of the World Series between the Astros and Nationals, we have agreed to publish their best attempt to trash talk Houston’s weather. In turn, Matt and I got to set the record straight on their site about catastrophe that is Washington’s bullpen, err, weather. Here, then, is why Houston’s weather allegedly sucks.
Houston: You have a weather problem. From hurricanes, to 500-year floods, and the relentless heat, I am not sure how you stand it. Washington’s weather is clearly superior.
We Washingtonians like to whine about our hellish heat and humidity, which occupies about two months of summer here, from roughly mid-June to mid-August. In your city, it starts to feel gross outside starting in April or May and doesn’t abate until around now.
Let’s examine this year, for example. You’ve already posted 10 days with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s in October. You’re running your air conditioners full blast when you should be outside in the crisp autumn air picking apples and pumpkins while watching the leaves change.
There’s been a lot of October heat in Houston. (NWS)
Seasons are something you know little about. You have six months of summer and six months of “meh.” Fortunately, you’re about to enter “meh” when you’ll finally be able to step outside again without sweating through your clothes.
As your average high temperatures fall through the 70s and 60s, you’ll be able to boast about some nice days between November and April. But, frankly, these days have little to offer. It will neither be warm enough to be out at the pool nor cold enough to enjoy winter activities like skiing and sledding, sadly foreign to you.
For anyone who likes snow, your city is a nightmare. It’s cute in a pathetic sort of way that a local news organization writes “Snow in Houston happens more than you think” when measurable snow has fallen at Houston Hobby airport just 10 times in the last 89 years, the most being 4.4 inches on Feb. 12, 1960.
Washington isn’t exactly a snow town, but it averages about as much of the white stuff in one winter as you’ve seen since 1930. (Yes, we are aware that 20 inches fell in your city in 1895 during a single storm and, props, that was impressive.)
Now let’s talk about rain. I need to be sensitive here because I feel for the folks who have been flooded repeatedly over the past few years. But the deluges you’ve dealt with are perhaps the most challenging and unsettling aspect of Houston’s climate.
You’re probably painfully aware that five exceptional rain events have inundated your region in the last five years, some of them, like Harvey and Imelda, considered 500-year rainstorms.
It is true that Washington can be rather soggy, and 2018 was our wettest year on record. But the rain we see is but a sprinkle compared to the tropical torrents in your city. Unlike Houston, which can get hit by hurricanes head-on, the tropical storms affecting Washington are typically weaker since they first pass over tens of miles of land.
For having four real seasons and for our tamer breed of heat and rain storms, we’ve got you beat in the weather department, Houston. Trust that our winning ways will carry over to this week’s World Series.
Jason Samenow is The Washington Post’s weather editor.
