Expect a lull in storms on Memorial Day before more rain overnight

On this Memorial Day, when we remember those who died serving our country, we both literally and figuratively have a cloudy forecast. Strong thunderstorms raked northern parts of the metro area on Sunday afternoon and evening, and then another line of storms moved through much of Houston this morning. Some areas in east Houston near the Sam Houston Tollway received nearly 5 inches of rainfall, all told. The result of all this is that, as of this morning, the atmosphere has somewhat stabilized.

Accordingly, we expect mostly cloudy skies for most of Memorial Day, with highs pushing into the mid-80s later this afternoon. It’s possible that some areas may see a break in the clouds later today, but for the most part the Sun should be hidden. Our best guess is that rain showers will be scattered to non-existent during the daytime with the atmosphere calmed down.

Pretty much all of Texas will likely see a wet Memorial Day, or Memorial Day night. (Pivotal Weather)

However, at some point during the overnight hours or on Tuesday morning it seems like conditions aloft will become stabilized. Therefore we could see another disturbance push through the region like what happened early on Monday morning—a broken line of showers and thunderstorms bringing another one-half inch of rain or so to most people.

For the remainder of the week, Houston’s weather will remain subject to the whims of a meandering upper-level low pressure system. For now it appears as though Houston will be wet at times this week, but we’re not anticipating anything too extraordinary. So while we’re vigilant about the flooding potential this week, we don’t see any signs of anything beyond some short-lived street flooding—for now at least.

Houston begins transition to grayer, eventually wetter weather

Here’s the state of play for Houston’s weather over the course of the next week: With high pressure moving away, and atmospheric moisture levels rising, the region will be susceptible to showers and thunderstorms beginning this evening through most of next week. In addition there will be some triggers for storms moving into Texas. However, there is a lot of uncertainty as to when, precisely, we’re going to see rain. So while rainfall will be possible every day, it won’t be probable on most days.

Thursday

We’ll see more clouds today, with winds from the southwest at perhaps 10 to 15 mph. Some breaks in the clouds should allow highs to push up to around 90 degrees this afternoon. An upper-level disturbance will move into Houston later this afternoon and evening. It appears that a capping inversion will hold over the city and coastal regions, but areas to the north and west of the city may see some showers. The chance of this is pretty low, however, probably less than 20 percent. Lows Thursday night will only drop into the mid-70s.

High temperatures will hit about 90 degrees on Wednesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday

Friday will see a similar setup albeit with increasing atmospheric moisture levels. Forecast models indicate showers are most likely to develop south of Interstate 10 on Friday, but chances remain fairly low, likely in the 20 to 30 percent range. This should be another partly to mostly cloudy day with highs near 90 degrees.

See full post

The dry air was nice, but now it’s likely gone for summer

Good morning. As I walked outside last night it seemed like I could feel the last dry parcel of air leaving the region. I’m not sure whether Houston has experienced its last front of the spring of 2020, but we’re now in a pattern where humidity will rule the day, as it does in summer in Houston. We’ll have a couple of warm, partly sunny days before clouds and then rain chances return for Memorial Day Weekend. If you’re heading to the beach, Saturday may be your best bet.

Wednesday will be another quite warm day. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday

Some clouds have developed this morning across the region as moisture pools beneath a capping inversion, but skies should still clear out by around noon or shortly thereafter. This, combined with light southerly winds, should allow temperatures to reach up into the low- to mid-90s. Cloud cover will increase again overnight, preventing lows from dropping below the mid-70s for most of the Houston region.

Thursday

As high pressure moves away from the region, our weather will begin to slowly change on Thursday. This will likely mean partly sunny instead of mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures should back off slightly to perhaps around 90 degrees. We can’t entirely preclude the possibility of light showers to the northwest of Houston, but it seems unlikely to me. Clouds build again Thursday evening, making for another warm and humid night.

See full post

Houston will be hot and sunny until Memorial Day Weekend begins

The story of this week’s weather continues to be the heat. On Monday, Houston had its warmest day in eight months. The official high of 94 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport was the hottest temperature since September 16, 2019. Last year, the first day of temperatures reaching 94 degrees or higher came on June 1. In any case, summer has arrived in Houston.

Tuesday

If you liked Monday’s heat you’ll love today. With high pressure still firmly in place, and mostly sunny skies, we can expect highs to top Monday by a few degrees. ( The record high temperature for May 19 in Houston is 95 degrees.) Humidity levels remain a bit lower than normal, and while this will help the air heat up faster, the slightly drier air will also help rein in the heat index this afternoon.

Welcome to summer, Houston. Here are Tuesday’s forecast highs. (Pivotal Weather)

As hot as temperatures will be today—and we’ll be running a good 8 to 10 degrees above “normal” highs on Tuesday—there should be just enough dry air hanging around to make for a pleasant evening as the sun goes down. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the low 70s.

Wednesday

As winds shift from the southwest to the south, we’re going to see the formation of some clouds on Tuesday night, and some of these should linger into Wednesday. This will also mark the return of more characteristic humidity for Houston, and this in turn should limit highs into the low- to mid-90s.

See full post