Eric Berger

Good morning. After rather boring weather last week, there are two significant weather issues to track this week. First up, as experienced by some parts of the city of Saturday and Sunday, is the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall due to moist air moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. Those rain chances should decline significantly by this weekend as Saharan dust—likely more intense than previous events of this nature—moves into the region.

Monday

The absence of high pressure and influx of moist Gulf of Mexico air will continue today. Like on Sunday, we should see the development of showers near the coast this morning. During the afternoon, these showers and thunderstorms will move inland and should spread out over much of the Houston area.

Most parts of the region that see rain will likely pick up less than one-half inch, but as we saw on Sunday, these storms have the potential to put down 2 to 3 inches of rain pretty quickly over small areas. Storms should weaken, if not go away entirely, as the sun sets. Clouds should help limit temperatures to around 90 degrees. Winds will be about 10 mph from the south, except inside storms when gusts could be substantially stronger.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Our wet and gray weather continues. This time, as moist air continues to stream inland, a storm system will move into Houston from west to east, likely reaching Houston during the afternoon or evening hours. This should enhance storm coverage, and we can expect around a 70 percent chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. On average, the city of Houston will likely receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, in total, through Wednesday. But again, we’re more concerned about isolated, higher totals due to the moisture available. Highs may struggle to reach 90 degrees given the cloud cover.

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For most of Houston, it’s been two weeks since substantial rain fell across the area. Compounding the problem has been that most days since then have been sunny and hot, allowing for ideal drying of soils. While rains earlier this spring have helped keep Houston out of a drought, the top layer of soils in the region is nonetheless very dry due to recent weather conditions. The map below shows the “percentile” level of moisture in the top 1-inch of soil across Texas. Much of the Houston area is at the 10th percentile or lower, based upon observations by NASA’s GRACE satellite, and a few areas are at 5 percent or lower.

These conditions have not yet sunk deeper into the ground, which would indicate a true drought. But were we to see another week or two of this hot and dry weather, the region would likely enter a drought. Fortunately, it does not appear as though that will happen given the modest pattern change ahead for this weekend.

Thursday

There are no surprises in store with today’s forecast. We can expect hot, humid, and sunny weather, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, light southerly winds, and almost no chance of rain. Lows will be in the mid-70s.

Friday

As high pressure dominates for one more day, we should not expect any substantial changes for Friday’s forecast either. Continued hot and sunny.

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Our hot and sunny weather will continue for a few more days before high pressure moves away, and the pattern begins to—slowly, probably—change this weekend. Any widespread rainfall will likely have to wait until next week, however.

Wednesday

With sinking air, we will see lots of blue skies today. Although a few isolated showers may develop east of the city, rain chances are near zero over Houston, and highs are going to rise into the low to mid-90s. This is the type of pattern that, were we in August, highs would push up near 100 degrees. Winds will be generally light, out of the south at 5 to 10mph. Overnight low temperatures will unlikely fall below the mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday

By this weekend, the ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather for more than a week should begin to weaken, and this will allow a more pronounced flow of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. This will eventually lead to development of some clouds and rain showers. But it’s not clear how much of that will happen on Saturday. So for now, expect a partly to mostly sunny day, with highs in low 90s, and perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain.

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As I type this, it is 5:55am and already beginning to get light outside. Some readers will surely disagree, but such early sunrises in June always play havoc with my sleep schedule. Fortunately (for me, at least), we have already passed the earliest sunrise of the year, and beginning Thursday the sunrise time for Houston will move from 6:20am to 6:21am, and grow about 20 seconds later every day.

Tuesday

With decent atmospheric moisture levels in place, we may again see some scattered activity fire up on the radar this afternoon along the sea breeze. Most of the modeling indicates any storms should be fairly short-lived, with better chances to the east and northeast of Houston. The bottom line is that although rain chances are low today—probably around 20 percent or less—they are higher than most of the rest of the week. Highs should reach the low- to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Not much to say about these days with mostly sunny skies, highs in the low- to mid-90s and lows in the 70s. High pressure will probably prevent any showers from popping up.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern begins to change this weekend as the high pressure system over our region finally begins to weaken, allowing for the development of some scattered clouds on Saturday, and perhaps more widespread clouds on Sunday. This may also lead to some better rain chances in the 30 to 40 percent range, although accumulations looks modest. Highs will remain in the low 90s.

Next week

Both the European and GFS model are indicating the possibility of more rainfall next week, perhaps somewhere in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. It’s possible that we may see some heavy rainfall, but the details are sketchy at this point.