Eric Berger

Our forecast is going to be very hot, with heat advisories likely needed through the weekend. Before jumping into the details, such as they are, I wanted to say a word about Hurricane Ike.

We are, amazingly, coming up on the 12th anniversary of Hurricane Ike. If you don’t remember, the storm hit Houston fairly hard, but made landfall just far enough east of Galveston that the worst of its storm surge missed Galveston Bay. It represented an enormous wake-up call for the region in terms of vulnerability of coastal residents, as well as the Houston Ship Channel. Unfortunately, while we have studied the problem in depth, we have yet to commit to any major projects that would address the threat and mitigate surge. There are two main proposals: A Coastal Spine Project led by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the General Land Office, and an astonishingly beautiful Galveston Bay Park that would protect the Houston Ship Channel from a 25-foot storm surge.

While we certainly realize that America and Texas have a lot of other problems to deal with at present, it is time to pick one, or both, of these projects to move forward with for the good of the greater Houston region. Otherwise, we may not get so lucky with the next large hurricane that makes landfall along the upper Texas coast.

Thursday

Houston’s high temperature hit 101 degrees on Wednesday at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and we can probably expect more of the same today with mostly sunny skies. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for now through Friday evening, and in truth it probably will be extended through the weekend as high pressure continues to influence our weather. Southwest winds of 5 mph will provide very little cooling today. Nights will remain sticky and warm.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

More. Of. The. Same. It’s probably worth mentioning that we could see a few isolated showers pop up during the afternoon, with daytime heating. I’d sure welcome one, but it seems a forlorn hope at this point.

Next week

The heat should back off somewhat by Tuesday, as some sort of weak cool front approaches the area. We still don’t have great confidence in how far this front will reach, but it should help to increase rain chances by Monday night or Tuesday, and then knock back daytime highs into the low- or mid-90s. We’d love to get some dry air to help with nighttime temperatures, but I’m not ready to bet on that yet.

Good morning. Temperatures will be hot enough today that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for now through 7pm CT. This means the hot temperatures and humidity will combine to create a heat index of up to 110 degrees later today. We can probably expect more of the same for the remainder of the week as high pressure influences the region’s weather through the weekend. Some relief should come next week.

Wednesday

High temperatures today will likely reach near 100 degrees for inland areas, with lower-to-mid 90s along the coast. Expect mostly sunny skies, although there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph out of the southwest. Our trend of warm nights will continue, with many areas south of Interstate 10 not falling below 80 degrees tonight.

Thursday and Friday

With conditions more or less the same for the remainder of the work week, I’d anticipate the National Weather Service extending heat advisories for both of these days.

Saturday and Sunday

We don’t really anticipate much change this weekend, either, with only slight—roughly 20 percent—rain chances both days. Otherwise skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 90s to possible 100 degrees for inland areas. Overnight lows will provide scant relief.

Next week

Things may get a little more interesting next week as high pressure backs off some. Rain chances may increase by Monday or so, perhaps into the 30 to 40 percent range. And I’m not ready to fully buy into this yet, but the models bring a front into Texas and push it toward Houston on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. The jury is out on how far the front will push into Houston, and whether it will make it all the way to the coast. Typically this does not happen in August, but if it does we’ll see some pleasantly drier air. We’re not going to get crazy here, but instead of nighttime temperatures of around 80 degrees, they may drop into the lower 70s in the city. We’ll see.

This is a pretty easy forecast for the region, and as there’s not much to say, we’re not going to say much. The prevailing pattern remains the same, with a ridge of high pressure anchored generally over the four corners region. For the next five or six days, this overall pattern does not change, with the ridge likely slowly moving north, and then a bit west. Houston lies on the eastern edge of this high, but we’ll feel enough of its influence to preclude all but isolated to scattered showers. In short, we’re going to see typical August weather for awhile.

Tuesday

Today will be mostly sunny, with highs in the low 90s near the coast, and upper 90s for inland areas. If you’re far enough west or north of Houston, highs may flirt with the 100s. Winds will remain very light, at about 5mph out of the south, providing no relief during the afternoon. Rain chances will be slight, at 10 to 20 percent for the region. Overnight lows will be warm and humid.

Wednesday and Thursday

More of the same.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The overall pattern does not change much, but as atmospheric moisture levels rise a bit, we may see slightly better rain chances in the mix. Forecast models also indicate this is when temperatures may reach their warmest—with the potential for 100-degree weather creeping southward into the Houston metro area—so expect plenty of heat and humidity to go along with any scattered showers.

Next week

By next week the high should continue to move west, and this may open the door to a more disturbed atmosphere with better rain chances. This probably will begin around Tuesday or so, but we’re not making any guarantees.