Eric Berger

Rain showers over the last week have been completely hit or miss, with some areas such as Pearland or Baytown receiving 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall, and many other areas including The Woodlands and West University Place getting none. As a result, some readers may think the last seven days have been quite wet, while others have watched the storm clouds form, only to hear distant thunder but see no measurable rain. What I’m confident of now is that virtually no one will see rain for the next week as high pressure settles in.

Wednesday

Today will still see a slight chance—maybe 10 percent?—of isolated showers along the sea breeze before high pressure truly clamps down on our weather. Highs likely will be otherwise in the mid- to upper-90s with mostly sunny skies and light southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday through Tuesday

There simply isn’t much to say about Texas weather in the summer, beneath high pressure. We will see highs in the upper-90s to 100 degrees. Skies will be sunny. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. They say it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity? Well, my friends, in Houston we’re blessed with both.

Later next week

Forecast models indicate the pattern will finally break by the middle or end of next week, as high pressure weakens and perhaps a more northeasterly flow sets up across the region. This should bring high temperatures back down a bit, and nudge rain chances up somewhat. After a week in the fryer, we’ll be ready for any modicum of relief.

A broad dome of high pressure will still build across the Houston region later this week, but we should have another chance of showers today before the heat really sets in. This weekend, in particular, looks hot.

Tuesday

High-resolution models are showing 20 to 30 percent rain chances today, especially later this afternoon along the sea breeze. These showers will definitely be hit or miss, with most of us likely on the “miss” side. The HRRR model forecast below shows what the radar might look like at around 4 or 5pm this afternoon. High temperaturess will push into the mid- or upper-90s with partly sunny skies.

Wednesday

Still have a very slight chance of rain, perhaps 10 percent, as high pressure builds over the region. Highs will be in the mid- to upper 90s with light southerly winds.

Thursday through Monday

Honestly, there’s not much to say about the weather forecast, so why waste words? It’s going to be awfully hot. Temperatures will reach the upper 90s to 100 degrees for Houston, with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Overnight lows will be sultry, only dropping to 80, or briefly into the upper 70s, for inland parts of Houston. As ever, August is a rough month for the region.

Next week

When will the high pressure break? The long-term ensemble models suggest this may happen toward the middle or end of next week, but that’s pretty much at the edge of predictability, so who knows.

Houston faces a pretty straightforward forecast for this week, as high pressure builds in by Tuesday or Wednesday, and the heat goes up. Chances are good that inland areas, particularly north of Spring, and west of Katy, will see one or more 100-degree days this week, and this coming weekend. And after today and possibly Tuesday, rain chances will fall off a cliff. In short, August will feel like August.

Monday

However, before that happens we’re going to see one more day with reasonably good rain chances—probably around 30 percent for areas north of Interstate 10, and 50 percent for areas closer to the coast. Conditions will be similar to Sunday, in which scattered to widespread storms popped up during the late morning and afternoon hours. Some of these storms can quickly drop an inch of rain (as happened Sunday near Waller), whereas most of the region will see a tenth of an inch of rain, or less.

The rain chances, combined with partly cloudy skies, should hold highs to around the mid-90s for most of Houston. Monday night should be rain-free as storms end with the loss of daytime heating, and lows will probably fall into the upper 70s for inland parts of the region.

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Well Houston, we’ve made it to the end of another work week, and it is now day two of August, 2019. The calendar informs me we have 30 more days until we reach September, and at least the potential for a fall cool front. Unfortunately, for at least the next week or 10 days it’s going to feel very much like August outside—especially during the latter half of next week.

Friday

If you liked the weather conditions on Thursday, then you’re in luck, because Friday is going to be similar. High temperatures will nudge up into the mid-90s, with partly sunny skies. Light winds will offer no relief from the heat. Humidity will be the usual for Houston in summer.

Beginning around 2pm and running through about 8pm we should see showers pulse up across the Houston area as the sea breeze nudges inland. Perhaps about one-third of the region will see rain from these scattered storms, and amounts will vary from between a few drops and perhaps one-half inch or more. Any storms should wind down this evening, with another warm night for the region on tap.

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