Eric Berger

Houston will remain in a more or less static weather pattern for most of the remainder of this week. Each day will see a healthy chance of showers, with a crescendo toward the weekend, but for now there don’t appear to be any significant concerns about strong storms or flooding. Temperatures will be hot, of course, but typically not of the 100-degree variety we sometimes see in August. In short, this is not a bad way to spend the last 10 days of a month that can either bring high pressure domes of doom, or serious tropical weather.

Tuesday

Today should be similar to Monday, with a mixture of clouds and sunshine, and highs in the mid-90s for most of the area. Rain chances are probably about 40 percent for most of Houston, with showers pulsing up near the coast by late morning, and moving through the city during the afternoon hours. They should fade as the sun begins to set. Some storms may briefly bring rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, but most people will see far less than that.

Wednesday and Thursday

These have the look of typical summertime days, with highs in the low 90s along the coast, and upper 90s for inland areas. Shower development should occur along the sea breeze, which will migrate inland during the afternoon hours. Right now I would anticipate less coverage than on Tuesday, so let’s call it 30 percent rain chances on both days.

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So far, August has been mostly a hot and dry month. Average temperatures are running 3 to 4 degrees above “normal” levels, with most of the area at a rainfall deficit. The good news—and good is definitely a relative term for August—is that this pattern should moderate slightly for the last 10 days or so of the month. This means that, with one or two exceptions, we are probably finished with 100-degree days. And hopefully rain chances will be a little bit better.

Monday

Conditions will be muggy and partly sunny today, with high temperatures generally climbing into the mid- to upper-90s across the region. High-resolution models suggest that scattered, but locally strong thunderstorms should pop up today from around 2pm through sunset across the region. Chances may be best roughly along the Interstate 10 corridor and closer to the coast, but I don’t have too much confidence in locations. Overnight lows will remain warm, around 80 degrees for most of the metro area.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, albeit with perhaps slightly less shower and thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours.

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Not every part of Houston received rain on Wednesday evening—some parts of Katy, Kingwood, and Galveston saw a lot of lightning, but precious little precipitation. But for much of the metro area, the rain did come come, in sheets, falling onto dry ground and streets so hot after seven days of 100-degree heat that they steamed afterward. For me, it brought to mind a classic Steve Earle song, The Rain Came Down, about a farmer desperate for rain, with lyrics such as, And the rain came down, Like an angel come down from above. It did feel pretty amazing.

Thursday

For all but the immediate coast, temperatures have fallen this morning into the mid- to upper-70s, which is cooler than most of the last week. With partly sunny skies, we’re still going to see a warm day today, with highs likely reaching into the upper 90s. (It is mid-August, after all). The focus for showers and thunderstorms today will likely occur closer to the coast. High-resolution models indicate the potential for active weather to the southwest of Houston, in Fort Bend and Wharton counties, as well as to the east in the Beaumont area. But with that said, I think rain chances in the Houston metro area itself are probably about 40 percent this afternoon and evening.

Friday

This should be a bit drier of a day, with perhaps only 30 percent rain chances and mostly sunny skies. It will remain quite hot, with highs in the upper 90s, and a few inland areas possibly seeing 100 degrees.

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Good morning. Just a quick note before today’s post—I wanted to say thank you to the 250 or so people who came out to the Houston Museum of Natural Science on Tuesday evening to hear Matt and I talk about the site, weather, hurricanes, and more. It was wonderful to meet so many of you, especially the two lovely young women who read this site to their mom every morning for practice—I’ve forgotten your names, and I’m truly sorry—but I promise to keep everything PG!

Wednesday

Change is coming slowly to Houston, but we’re still going to see another very hot day. The city has now recorded six consecutive days of 101-degree temperatures, and I don’t quite think we’ll get there today. But a heat advisory remains in effect, and we’ll at least get into the upper-90s if not 100 degrees.

Nevertheless, change is on the way, with high pressure finally beginning to back off to the west. This should allow for a fairly healthy—40 or 50 percent?—chance of showers late this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze migrates inland and collides with a disturbed atmosphere moving south. For the most part accumulations will be measured in the tenths of an inch, but a few heavy thunderstorms may drop more. Lows tonight will still be in the 80s.

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