Eric Berger

Hot in Houston, and heating up in the tropics

Summer continues apace this week—for the love of God, is August over yet??—with not much overall change in the forecast. We can expect highs in the upper 90s and lows around 80. Some drier air this weekend may help with nighttime temperatures, but we’re making no promises. We’ll also discuss the tropics in today’s post because it’s that time of year, and the Gulf may see some activity over the next week or so.

Tuesday

We’ll start today with mostly sunny skies, and highs are going to pretty quickly leap up into the mid- or upper-90s. However, it appears as though the sea breeze may be a little more active this afternoon than Monday, with scattered thunderstorms popping in the 2pm-6pm range this afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be typical summertime days in Houston, with highs in the upper-90s, and afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances in the 30 percent range. Nights remain warm and sultry and unpleasant.

Monday afternoon dewpoint forecast from the GFS. (Weather Bell)

Labor Day Weekend

If you have outdoor plans, I hope you have included some water in those plans. Yes, a very weak front will approach the region and may reach Houston this weekend. But no, it’s not going to bring much cooling. If you’re far enough west or north of Houston, you may possibly see some dewpoints in the lower 60s or upper 50s on Sunday and Monday, but right now we don’t think this will be all that noticeable in Houston.

For the most part, we’re going to see highs in the upper 90s, mostly sunny skies, and rain chances of 10 to 20 percent each day.

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August, as usual, will remain hot to the end for Houston

As often is the case, August has been a lousy month for weather in Houston. Certainly, the region did not experience a devastating hurricane this month (ala Harvey), or a massive heat wave (ala August, 2011). However, the average temperature this month has been 88.0 degrees, which is about 3 degrees above normal, and we did have a week straight of 100-degree or warmer days earlier. We won’t be quite that hot during the last week of the month, but we’ll still be plenty warm.

Yeah, Houston has had a lot of warm days and nights this month. (National Weather Service)

Monday and Tuesday

After a wet Sunday for much of the Houston, pressures are rising and that should bring rain showers to an end for a few days. Skies will be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the region. Lows again will be sultry, falling to only 80 degrees for most of Houston. Any showers that develop should be near the coast, isolated, and briefly lived.

Wednesday and Thursday

A weak front appears likely to stall over north Texas in the middle of the week, and some of the instability related to this could generate some scattered showers across the Houston region. We’re still looking at partly sunny, and warm days with highs in the mid- to upper-90s, however. I’d peg rain chances at about 30 percent both days, with accumulations generally measured in tenths of an inch.

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Tropics coming alive, but we see no imminent Gulf threats

Welcome to the weekend, everyone. We’ve had several questions about tropical activity during the last day or so as the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a couple of areas for likely tropical cyclone formation. None appear likely to present a threat to Texas, but we’re posting anyway to address those questions, and allay concerns. This is also a good reminder that we’ve reached the peak of hurricane season, and the next month, historically, is the time of most concern for Texas.

Here’s the latest five-day map from the National Hurricane Center showing the two systems of Interest, to which we’ve added their “invest” designations.

(National Hurricane Center)

Invest 98L

Forecast models indicate this system has a strong chance of becoming a tropical storm or a hurricane, but the preponderance of tracks develop it after the system has moved away from Florida, and it will likely present no significant threat to land.

Invest 99L

The track of 99L appears to be a little bit more ominous, as it brings the system toward the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center gives it about an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. However, the global models generally anticipate that any system that might develop will fall apart somewhere in the general vicinity of Hispaniola due to unfavorable wind shear.

Certainly it will be worth watching the evolution of 99L over the next week, as there are some scenarios in which it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico. But by far the most likely outcome is a) dissipation or b) some kind of rainfall threat to the Caribbean Sea or Florida over the next five to seven days. As always, if this changes, we’ll update the site.

The coast will be wet for awhile, but we’re hopeful about next week

Good morning. Houston’s hit-or-miss rainfall pattern appears likely to continue from now through the weekend. The pattern will include more hits along the coast, and more misses for areas inland of interstates 10 and 69, as the further one is from the Gulf, the less access to moisture there will be.

Thursday

This morning will bring mostly sunny skies to the region, but in what is now becoming a familiar pattern, scattered storms will migrate inland beginning around noon for areas along the coast. Through the afternoon and early evening hours, the storms will then progress across central parts of Houston, and then exit northward. Perhaps 40 percent of Houston will see rain, and a fraction of that will see some fairly heavy, if brief rainfall. The rest of you will see dark clouds in the distance, and perhaps hear the rumble of thunder. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-90s, and this will depend on how clouds develop over your location during the peak heating of the mid-afternoon hours.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday and Saturday

As we’ve been talking about, a plume of more moist air will be moving north across the Gulf of Mexico at the end of this week, pushing up rain chances and likely driving down temperatures into the low-90s. Your weather for the first half of the weekend is going to basically depend on how far you live from the coast. Inland locations such as Katy will probably see mostly sunny days, with higher temperatures and slight, if any rain accumulations. But coastal areas such as Clear Lake or Galveston have a better chance of rain, and may potentially see accumulations of 1 inch or more of rain. Bottom line? Perhaps this isn’t the best weekend to head to the beach.

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