Eric Berger

A special announcement about our 2018 site sponsor

After 2017 in Houston, which featured everything from the costliest hurricane to ever strike the United States to a rare December snow, we can hardly guess what the near year will bring. (Certainly, we can be relatively confident in heat and humidity). Whatever this way comes, be it snow, rain, or intense heat, we’d like you to know that Space City Weather will be here every step of the way.

And that is why I am so thrilled to announce today that our sponsor during last year’s hurricane season, Reliant, has stepped forward to support the site for all of 2018. The company, and its president Elizabeth Killinger, believe strongly in the value we bring to to the Houston community, and they wanted to support our efforts. That means two important things for readers of Space City Weather.

One, we will have no outside advertising on the site. None. No auto-play videos. No pop-ups. Just a clean interface. This should make for lightning fast load times. Perhaps most importantly, it means we do not have to generate clicks for the sake of clicks. We don’t need to clickbait you because the value of our site isn’t determined by traffic. So if there’s not much to say about a 95-degree day in August, we won’t waste your time (or ours) by saying much.

Two, neither Matt nor I has much of a background in business or marketing. We’re scientists. We’re meteorologists. We’re writers. We just want to inform, entertain, and help you make decisions about weather and your lives. To that extent, having Reliant sponsor the site for all of this year means we can focus on weather, and pay with bills, with a minimum of distraction.

Finally, let me just say that I’m personally pleased that Reliant is back. Their very name is part of the ethos of this site. We aspire to provide a source of reliable information about weather in the greater Houston area. They’re a reliable provider of electricity and home services to the same market. It’s a great match for the new year.

This is the worst of this Arctic spell for Houston—we warm now

Houston saw some scattered light snow and sleet on Tuesday evening, but drier air at low levels of the atmosphere prevented more widespread coverage. After this system moved out of the area, skies began to clear from west to east across the region after midnight and this allowed for very cold temperatures to settle into southeast Texas. As of 6:30am CT, lows range from about 20 degrees in College Station, to 25 in the city of Houston, to 30 degrees in Galveston. Up north, this is nothing. But for Houston, this is very cold—with many sites tying or breaking record low temperatures for January 3. If you’re tired of this, there’s good news. We’ve seen the worst of it now.

When you look at forecast low temperatures for Wednesday morning, suddenly the mid-20s doesn’t seem all that bad. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday through Friday

One big thing happens today: full sunshine returns to Houston. It’s been awhile. But the next three days should see nearly continuous sunshine during the daytime hours. This will allow for a sloooow warming trend, from highs today in the low 40s to the low 50s by Friday. Overnight lows, too, should climb from around 30 degrees Wednesday night to about 40 degrees by Friday night.

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Early look at the Houston Marathon forecast: Cold, probably

Hello fellow marathon runners and volunteers. In 12 days, it will be all over but the recovery. And now that the big training runs are over, all that we can do is trust our preparation, and hope for good—cold—weather on the big day. To that end, for the rest of this week, I’ll be providing afternoon updates on what we can expect for Sunday, Jan. 14th.

Of course any weather forecast beyond about seven days out is going to have a lot of uncertainty, and anything beyond 10 days is even more problematic. But that does not mean such forecasts have zero value. The best way to look at weather this far out is to study the ensemble forecasts of the main global models. These are the 50 or so lower resolution runs of a given model, with slightly different initial conditions. By looking at the spread in output from these models, we can gauge the probability of cold, normal, or warm weather for 12 days from now. Looking at the 12z runs of the European and North American models, here’s what I have for you.

Starting with the European model I have broken down the possibilities for start line temperatures into four different categories:

Warm: 3 degrees F or more warmer than normal

Normal: +3 to -3 degrees within normal (average high is 65, low is 47 degrees)

Cold: -3 to -10 degrees below normal

Very cold: -10 degrees or more below normal

In looking at each individual ensemble member of the European model, here are the Houston temperature anomaly outputs sorted by category:

Warm: 5

Normal: 4

Cold: 33

Very cold: 8

Too obtain probabilities, just multiply those numbers by two. So, roughly, according to the European model this afternoon, there is a 20 percent chance of warm or near-normal weather for the marathon, and an 80 percent chance of cold or very cold weather.

Looking at the GFS model, the  we can see the mean of the ensemble members for January 14th is about 2 Celsius degrees (4 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal. But this model isn’t as cold as the European model.

Average temperature anomaly produced by the GFS ensemble members. (Weather Bell)

This is a much better forecast for the 2018 run than what we saw in 2017 (warm and very humid), but it is far from locked in. There are also some concerns.

The models are suggesting that some kind of fairly strong cold front moves through the region toward the end of next week, and this could bring with it some decent precipitation. If that front is late, we could still be warm for the marathon. Or the front could drag through on a Friday or Saturday, leaving behind some cold rain for the marathon itself. That, obviously, wouldn’t be ideal either. All that said, I’d still rather be looking at probable cold weather more than just about anything.

More tomorrow.

Record cold likely for Houston on Tuesday night

It’s cold—but not extremely cold—across the Houston region this morning. Although wind chill temperatures are in the teens, the mercury has generally remained in the upper 20s for most of Houston during the overnight hours due to persistent cloud cover that has helped the surface retain some of its heat. That should change Tuesday night, with clearer skies allowing for colder overnight temperatures.

Tuesday

On New Year’s Day, the high of just 41 degrees gave Houston its coldest daytime temperature since Jan. 10, 2015. We’ll probably be colder today as skies remain partly to mostly cloudy for Houston, and limit highs to the upper 30s. For coastal areas, there is also a slight chance of sleet today, but we aren’t worried about any kind of freezing precipitation accumulation. For one, much of the sleet is likely to evaporate before reaching the ground. And secondly, temperatures along the coast will be sufficiently above freezing today.

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday night. (National Weather Service)

As skies clear across the region tonight we’ll see ideal weather for radiational cooling, and this is when we expect to see very cold overnight lows ranging from about 20 degrees for far inland areas to 30 degrees along the coast. Houston’s record low temperatures for January 3rd is 25 degrees, and I believe we will definitely threaten that at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

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