Eric Berger

Rains so far today have stayed mostly to the north and west of the Houston metro area, as anticipated. As of 2pm CT, just south of Huntsville is the big “winner” with about 4 inches of rain falling so far. Not a whole lot has changed with our forecast, but I did want to call out a few things we’re watching as we get closer to heavier rainfall this evening and during the overnight hours.

Models not showing extreme totals: None of the high-resolution models are really bombing out huge rain totals with this event. So while some forecasts have been calling for up to 10 inches of rainfall during the next 12 to 24 hours. We’re feeling more comfortable with 7 or 8 inches as an upper limit, with most of the area seeing 2 to 5 inches of rainfall.

Heavier rains more likely north: Some of the models suggest the heavier rain totals (5 inches or more) will generally fall north of Harris County, with most of the metro area remaining under that threshold. Other models show the rainfall pretty well dispersed, so we’re not overly confident with this part of the forecast.

Line of storms timing: The point at which the front (and a line of strong thunderstorms) moves through Houston has moved up somewhat, and now appears likely to sweep through the region, from west to east, between around midnight and 3am. This is the time when you definitely won’t want to be out and about due to the potential for heavy rainfall, flooded streets, and strong thunderstorms.

Flooding potential: Because some of the heaviest rainfall will occur well inland, we’ll have to watch for potential flooding along the Trinity, San Jacinto, Brazos, Navasota, San Bernard, and Colorado river basins. In terms of bayous, Jeff Lindner of Harris County said he’s most concerned about bayous and creeks across the northern, northwestern, and northeastern parts of the county: Cypress, Willow, Little Cypress, Cedar, West and East Forks of the San Jacinto, South Mayde, Langham, Bear. We think most of these will probably remain within their banks.

Event will end: We are not overly concerned about Friday night’s event, because it’s going to come to a pretty abrupt end by or before sunrise on Saturday. This will be kind of a nasty rain event for December, but if this were July or August, it wouldn’t be considered all that extreme. Our bottom line is that, if you’re overly anxious about this event, it’s probably not going to be as bad as you think.

We’ll be back this evening with an updated forecast.

The sunny weather we’ve enjoyed this week is now gone, as high pressure has been firmly supplanted by an onshore flow. We’ll see a steady diet of cloud cover through Saturday, with moisture moving onshore that will culminate in the potential for heavy rain on Friday night and Saturday morning. To mark this threat, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the region from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. We discuss this threat below.

Thursday

After a start in the 50s, highs today will climb into the upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Southeasterly winds will transport moisture inland throughout the day, and although we can’t rule out a few isolated showers we don’t expect anything significant. Low temperatures Thursday night won’t fall much below the mid-60s for most of the area.

Friday

The upper-level low pressure system will be moving down through Texas, approaching the Houston region from the north-northwest. We expect some light- to moderate rainfall on Friday in the Houston metro area during the daytime, but for the most part, heavier showers should remain west of Harris County until around sunset or so. Highs Friday should climb to near 70 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

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We’re continuing to track the potential for heavy rainfall on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday morning as a strong front moves through the region. Unfortunately, the models remain highly consistent in forecasting a wet night, with the potential for widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, and some bullseyes of up to 6 to 8 inches. The atmosphere won’t be too favorable toward severe weather, so the primary threat is heavy rainfall and the potential for some light to moderate flooding.

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Wednesday

Conditions today will be a lot like those on Tuesday, which is to say a cold start, followed by a sunny warm up into the low 60s. However, a subtle wind shift from the northeast to the east later today will allow for a few clouds to develop later tonight, and should moderate low temperatures to around 50 degrees in Houston—colder up north, a bit warmer along the coast.

Thursday

Winds will shift to come from the southeast on Thursday, and this will represent the return of a moist, onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help ramp up moisture levels ahead of the front, but it won’t manifest in rainfall immediately. Instead, Thursday will be a mostly cloudy affair, with highs in the mid- to upper-60s, and those southeasterly winds.

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It’s a chilly morning across the region, with lows ranging from 35 degrees in Huntsville to around 50 along the coast. As high pressure dominates our weather, conditions will remain quiet until later this week, when a storm system will combine with ample Gulf of Mexico moisture to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Some street flooding appears possible Friday night, but fortunately the system won’t linger as a strong front scours the region on Saturday morning.

Tuesday

Cool today, with a northerly flow. Despite sunny skies, highs probably will only get up to around 60 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will be similar to Monday night.

Wednesday

Northerly winds will shift to the east, but that won’t mean much during the daytime, as we can expect another sunny day with highs of around 60 degrees. The more easterly winds should help to moderate overnight temperatures, however, with lows by Thursday morning generally in the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday

Winds continue their rotation, and will come out of the southeast on Thursday, and this should lead to a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Rain chances are quite low, but not non-existent.

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