Eric Berger

Before jumping into the forecast, I just wanted to note an oddity developing off the southeastern Brazilian coast—Tropical Storm Iba. This is the first tropical cyclone to develop in the southern Atlantic Ocean since Tropical Storm Anita, in 2010. Such storms are rare in the Atlantic, south of the equator, due to typically very high wind shear conditions. In this case, Iba should last about 24 hours and does not appear to be a significant threat to land. (I also wouldn’t read anything into Iba’s development with respect to the upcoming North Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1).

Monday

It’s warm, humid and (for some parts of Houston) foggy this morning as the region lies under a southwesterly flow. Temperatures are in the upper 60s. But a front is coming, and along with it more spring-like weather. Conditions will remain mostly cloudy through the early afternoon, with temperatures rising to about 80 degrees for the area. A diffuse area of showers and thunderstorms will move into Houston this afternoon—most people probably won’t see rain—that will herald the arrival of the front. It should move offshore this evening, allowing for clearing skies and a pleasant night in the upper 50s.

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Houston has now gone six days without measurable rain—and we’re likely to add at least two more through Friday. The region hasn’t recorded a dry spell longer than five days since early January. It’s been nice—my yard is dry for the first time since I can’t even remember this winter. However we could now use a bit of rain, especially with tree pollen levels so high, and I’m not sure we’re going to get all that much in the days ahead. In fact, this March is likely to see much less rainfall than normal.

Thursday

For today, there are no weather concerns. (If you’re in the Deer Park area, unfortunately, benzene levels are elevated in the aftermath of the toxic fire at an industrial facility. Please heed shelter-in-place warnings. Also, Highway 225 is closed in the region). Otherwise, today will be sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-70s, and lows tonight down around 50 degrees. A weak cold front crossed the region Wednesday night, which will keep our air dry for another day or so.

Friday

The onshore flow resumes during the day, so you’ll probably notice an uptick in humidity, and temperatures likely will get into the upper 70s. Overall this should still be a very pleasant day, however, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows Friday night probably won’t fall much below 60 degrees.

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Good morning. The Deer Park industrial fire has finally burned itself out this morning. Light winds have confined the remaining smoke near the site, and with mixing heights lower due to overnight temperatures, residual smoke is near the surface in the vicinity of Deer Park, northern Pasadena, Galena Park, and Channelview. The smoke should lift later this morning, and disperse, as temperatures warm relatively quickly.

In happier news, spring officially begins later today, and along with it our amazing weather will continue through Friday. Unfortunately, for the weekend, the forecast is less sublime.

Wednesday and Thursday

Our weather will be nearly perfect, with highs in the mid 70s, lows down around 50 in the city of Houston (cooler inland, warmer along the coast), and dry air. Enjoy!

Friday

This should be another fine day, but later we should notice a subtle shift in the winds, signalling the return of an offshore flow. Highs in the mid-70s, with a warmer night due to the wind shift, likely only in the upper 50s.

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Good morning. While our weather remains exceptionally fine for this time of year, we do have some significant air quality concerns for the metro area.

First, and most dramatically, is the Deer Park Fire incident at the Intercontinental Terminals Company, which continues to burn unrestrained this morning. The key thing to watch, in terms of weather, is “mixing heights,” which is the level that smoke from the fire will rise in response to the atmospheric profile. Put another way, the smoke will rise as long as it is warmer than the surrounding air. These mixing heights have lowered this morning to about 500 feet, in response to cooler nighttime temperatures, but they should steadily rise to about 5,000 feet or so today, keeping the smoke plume above the ground.

A number of readers have asked how concerned we should be about this fire in terms of air quality. This is beyond my scope of expertise, but overall I would just say this incident is pretty egregious, and that we should hold our elected officials accountable for the leaders the appoint to agencies like the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, which theoretically should be preventing accidents like these, monitoring them, and ensuring they don’t happen again. The chemical industry provides many good paying jobs for the Houston region, but that doesn’t mean we should accept accidents such as these as part of the bargain.

The other concern we have this morning is our ongoing battle with spring pollen season. Tree pollen remains “extremely heavy” in the city of Houston, and grass pollen is also a problem as well. Most of the tree pollen is coming from oaks. This problem will likely persist until the region gets its next moderate to heavy rainfall, which may come around Monday—or maybe not even then. Now, onto the forecast.

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