Eric Berger

Some sunshine today, before solid clouds through Saturday

A cold front pushed through the region Tuesday night, and this should give us a brief bit of drier air and sunshine today before clouds and intermittent light rain return for the rest of the week. The next nice day should come Sunday before rain chances return on—you guessed it—Monday.

Wednesday

It’s chilly this morning, with lows in the mid-40s, and cloudy skies. However, as drier air moves in from the west we’ll see some clearing skies and this afternoon should be pretty nice with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the mid-60s. This should last about through this evening as high pressure exits to the east, and low pressure returns. This will lead to an influx of moisture, clouds and rising rain chances tonight.

Atmospheric moisture levels (precipitable water) for Wednesday afternoon (left), and Thursday afternoon. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

As the image above shows, moisture will return rapidly, with drier air Wednesday giving way to moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday across the region, but for most accumulations should be a few tenths of an inch of rain, or less. Highs will be around 60 under leaden skies.

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Houston feeling the El Niño pattern this winter

After a stretch of intermittently sunny weather, with mostly rain-free days, Houston now returns to a more gloomy pattern. Several readers have asked why this winter has been so wet and gray, and the reason is generally due to the recent formation of a weak El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This pattern generally favors a wetter winter, and that’s precisely what we’re going to get for the rest of February, at least. (El Niño is not expected to continue into the summer, so it’s unlikely to affect the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season).

January was a typical month during a weak El Nino, with 1-2 inches of rain more than normal for most of Houston. (National Weather Service)

Tuesday

Today will be especially wet and gray, with near 100 percent rain chances for Houston. Until around sunset, bands of light to moderate rain will pulse into the region from the Gulf of Mexico as an upper-level storm system moves through the area. While conditions for heavier rain are better to the east and northeast of Houston (parts of Arkansas could see in excess of 3 inches of rain), for our region we expect most areas to receive under 0.5 inch today. Still, it will be cloudy, and cold, with highs unlikely to reach 60 degrees. Lows Tuesday night will probably fall to around 50.

Wednesday

This has the potential to be a nicer day. Sometime early Wednesday, a cold front associated with Tuesday’s rain showers will push through Houston. This will be a relatively weak front, but it should bring some drier air, and therefore rain chances for the daytime on Wednesday are fairly low. We may also see some sunshine during the afternoon and evening hours as highs rise into the low 60s.

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Rodeo on the horizon, and the forecast is mostly gray

Skies are partly clear across the region this morning, but clouds will increase throughout the day, and I’m afraid we’re looking at mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the week. We’ll also see healthy rain chances through Friday or Saturday—which means less-than-ideal conditions for the upcoming Houston Rodeo Cook Off, and part of the opening weekend for Mardi Gras in Galveston. We’ll dive into this in greater detail below.

Monday

With Sunday’s cold front well offshore, we’ll see a breezy, cool day today, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This is probably also the last day with near-zero rain chances until Sunday as conditions turn wetter. Temperatures tonight will drop to around 50 degrees—cooler inland and warmer near the coast. The wetter pattern should begin as soon as this evening, as light rain showers migrate inland.

Rain accumulation forecast for now through Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

Broadly speaking, our pattern for much of this week will be one of a thin layer of colder air at the surface, and a warmer, moist current of air from the southwest higher up in the atmosphere. Tuesday looks especially wet, with a saturated atmosphere and near 100 percent rain chances. The heavier rain should remain largely to the northeast of Houston, with the metro area generally seeing about one-half inch of rain. All told, this will be a cold (mid-50s), damp day.

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Houston forecast sunny though Saturday, then things turn murky

Our forecast remains on track through the first half of the weekend, with mostly sunny conditions and warmer weather. After this, however, our weather turns a bit murky both literally and figuratively as a cold front stalls out near, or over the region. Certainly we’re not expecting anything too extreme, but for now the forecast is hard to parse with any great detail.

Thursday and Friday

The work week will end with a pair of fine, partly to mostly sunny days, with high temperatures generally varying from the low 70s to the upper 70s depending upon cloud cover. Nights will be moderate, with lows in the upper 50s for inland areas ranging into the low 60s for the coast. Rain chances are near zero and humidity levels will be reasonable with some drier air mixing in.

Friday will be a warm day, especially for Central Texas. (National Weather Service)

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see more of the same, although cloud cover may increase some later during the day on Saturday. This still should be a dry day for most, with highs in the mid-70s, so plan those outdoor activities with confidence. Nighttime temperatures on Saturday will be quite warm, likely in the 60s pretty much area-wide.

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