Eric Berger

We’ve now reached August, and for Texas the next eight weeks represent the peak of hurricane season. The good news is that several key indicators, including sea surface temperatures and wind shear, both favor below normal activity for the next two months. Specifically, seas are cooler than normal in the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms and hurricanes most commonly form and then move westward toward the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Additionally, wind shear is forecast to be higher in these regions over the next two months.

The only caveat is that seas in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain near or above normal. This suggests the greatest threat this year to the Gulf coast will come from a storm that forms relatively near to the shore, and then move inland. We will, of course, be on the lookout for such systems as they don’t provide much warning. For the next week or so, at least, the tropics appear very likely to remain quiet.

Thursday and Friday

After a relatively cool start on Thursday morning, with lows down to around 70 degrees for the northern half of the metro area, there’s not much to say about the weather for the next two days. Highs are likely in the mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies, and lows in the mid- to upper-70s.

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July was not the most pleasant month weather-wise, with four 100-degree days and a lot of sweltering heat during the second half of the month. But it sure ended nicely, with high temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday, with widespread rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches providing some respite for area trees and lawns, and clearing skies in time for sunset. Moreover, the weak front that precipitated the showers left us with drier, cooler weather this morning, with lows in the upper 60s for northern areas of the region.

However, we have now come to August, which means we’ve reached the busiest eight-week stretch of hurricane season for the Texas coast. I’ll have an updated outlook for the season in Thursday’s post, and don’t forget to tune in tonight at 7pm on Facebook Live as I team up with Reliant to talk about hurricane season, summer weather and more. At this time there is no cause for alarm, of course, but it is always a good idea to be prepared along the Gulf coast at this time of year. Now, onto the forecast.

Wednesday and Thursday

For August, conditions will be reasonable in Houston the next two days due to some modestly drier air that accompanied Tuesday’s front. Skies will be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s. But mornings and evenings will be decent, with lows generally into the low- to mid-70s across the region (cooler inland, of course, and warmer near the coast). Along with slightly warmer humidity, this is fine weather for August.

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Parts of southern Houston saw some thunderstorms on Monday afternoon, and as a “cold” front slogs through the area we’ll see another healthy chance of showers later today. After the heat of this month, with an average temperature likely ending up as about the 10th warmest July on record, today’s slightly cooler weather will be a nice way to transition into August.

Tuesday

The front is still north of Houston this morning, but should gradually push through the city and to the coast throughout the day. The best chance for showers—and I’m sorry, but not everyone is likely to see rain today—will probably come between noon and 6pm today. Accumulations for those who do get rain will probably measure in the 0.25 to 0.75 inches, with higher isolated totals within thunderstorms. Depending on the extent of rain today, highs will probably range from about 90 to 95 degrees. After the front moves offshore, rain chances should end this evening.

Just a few words about the front. This is a cold front, but as we’re in the dead of summer, it is not going to bring any colder air into Houston. We will see some drier conditions, which could make mornings for the next day or two a little bit more pleasant, especially for inland areas. But the region is going to remain hot.

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Houston’s high temperature has reached 100 degrees four times during the last eight days, which almost meets our “normal” quota for the total number of these days during a calendar year. Now, fortunately, we’ll take a slight step back this week with the heat, and also return some welcome rain chances to the forecast. Not everyone will get rain this week (sorry), but I expect most of the region to pick up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain between now and next time this week. This should also help with African dust levels, as discussed below.

Monday

This will be another warm day for Houston, with high temperatures in the upper 90s, and clear skies this morning. However, some clouds should work their way into our skies this afternoon, and the eastern side of the city will see some moderate rain chances—perhaps 20 to 30 percent as some storms moved into the region from Louisiana. At the same time, a weak cold front will be moving down the north of the state, and this will bring some additional instability into the area, and portend better rain chances on Tuesday.

Tuesday

For the first time in what seems like weeks, skies should be mostly cloudy rather than mostly sunny. This, alone, should help keep high temperatures in the low 90s. Conditions aren’t perfect for rainfall, but the stalling front combined with surface moisture should be enough to generate some showers and thunderstorms for parts of the region. Again, accumulations won’t be too significant, but after a dry spell during the second half of July anything will be welcome.

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