Eric Berger

As expected some thunderstorms have develop near, and south of Victoria this afternoon along a warm front stretching across coastal Texas. As these storms migrate to the northeast toward the Houston metro area, it appears likely that a weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere will add an additional impetus to strengthen them this evening over Houston.

Practically, this means the region will see a pretty healthy chance of showers sometime between 4 and 8pm this evening, and a decent chance of thunderstorms. Tornadoes appear unlikely to form with this system, but some hail is possible due to vertical wind shear. Most areas will likely see 1 inch of rain or less, but a few areas might see more rain where the heaviest storms set up. Any lingering showers should exit the area by about 9pm.

Saturday should be mostly sunny, with a high in the upper 70s, and a slight chance of rain toward the evening hours. Sunday still looks sunny, but quite blustery as a front moves in. Look for gusts in the 30s, which could play havoc with outdoor activities.

Posted at 2:40pm CT on Friday by Eric

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Good morning. Houston will face one more soggy morning before the widespread rain chances die down.

Today

Although the heaviest rain has moved well east of Houston, between Beaumont and Baton Rouge, an upper-level low pressure system moving into the region from the southwest will provide one final round of widespread showers—with a few thunderstorms—this morning. Accumulations for most areas should be 1 inch or less, which is more than manageable for area roadways and bayous. As rain chances fall off late this morning and early afternoon, look for high temperatures in the upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday

More unseasonably warm weather arrives to kick off the weekend, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to about 80 degrees. Some rain chances may briefly return on Friday evening and into Saturday morning, but I wouldn’t expect anything too widespread or heavy.

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A second round of rain showers is en route to Houston as another upper-level disturbance is approaching the Houston region from the west. They should affect the region from about 11:30 am to 3 pm CT). With some clearing skies now (11 am) across Houston this is allowing daytime temperatures to climb into the upper 70s, and combined with this heating and high moisture levels would could see an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with these storms.

It is not clear where the heaviest rains will fall, but areas of most concern include southwest and northwest Houston. The 12-hour rainfall rain totals are impressive, including the following high-water marks in Harris County:

• 2 NE West University Place 6.50 in
• White Oak Bay Heights Blvd 6.44 in
• 1 NE Houston 6.38 in
• Buffalo Bayou @ Milam 6.19 in
• Little White Oak Bayou @ Tri 6.12 in
• Brays Bayou Gessner Dr 6.08 in

The National Weather Service has issued a flood warning for a large chunk of Fort Bend and Harris County through 4:15 pm today. The good news is such that the storms moving in later this morning and afternoon are flying along at a pretty good clip to the east, about 30 mph, so I’m less concerned about their flooding potential than those that accompanied the overnight rains. However, for areas hit hard early this morning, it won’t take too much precipitation to push swollen bayous back to near the tops of their banks.

After this afternoon’s storms I think we’ll see some clearing for the late afternoon and evening hours, but we could be looking at another round of storms by Thursday morning. We’ll update you on that later today.

Posted at 11:10am CT on Wednesday by Eric

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

The National Weather Service has extended the flash flood warning through 10:15am this morning after as much as 6 inches of rain fell across southwestern Houston this morning. An additional 0.5 to 1 inch is possible during the next couple of hours, and on top of what has already fallen this could put some bayous out of their banks.

Already this morning flash flooding is occurring along Highway 59 from Fort Bend County through to the northeast side of Downtown Houston, with some underpasses and surrounding streets under water.

According to the Harris County Flood Control District, here is an assessment of current bayou levels at or near flood level:

• Keegans Bayou: overbanks at US 59/Beltway 8…numerous streets flooded
• Brays Bayou: bayou is spilling into SH 288 mainlanes and lower homes in Meyerland may be close to flooding. Bayou appears near crest at US 59 and Gessner
• Hunting Bayou: bayou is at bankfull at Lockwood (Kashmere Gardens)
• South Mayde Creek: creek is at bankfull at Greenhouse
• Upper Spring Creek: creek is nearing bankfull at Hegar Rd
• Upper Cypress Creek: creek is rising toward bankfull
• Lower White Oak Bayou: within banks, but high

As the heavier storms have moved out of the Houston, there is concern about additional development late this morning and early afternoon along a nearly stationary boundary.

Posted by Eric at 7:50am CT on Wednesday

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)