Storms possible late today northwest of Houston

Good morning. Storms are possible later today, but our best guess is that they’ll probably skirt the metro Houston area and remain to the northwest. Thanksgiving looks quite pleasant in the wake of a moderate front.

Today

It’s generally in the mid-60s across the Houston area today, quite warm for late November. Along with warmer mornings, we’re going to see some other key differences today in weather that augur the potential for storms later. Winds will pick up out of the south later by this afternoon, possibly gusting up to about 20mph. We’ll also see more cloud cover later today, an indication of rising moisture levels.

Meanwhile a strong disturbance over the southwestern United States will move east, toward Texas today. For our northwestern region, including the College Station area, the combination of daytime heating and the disturbance will create conditions favorable for some severe weather this afternoon through about midnight, or shortly before. There may be enough rotation to produce some isolated tornadoes and hail, but the primary threat is probably severe thunderstorms. (Fortunately daytime temperatures only in the mid-70s may limit some of the severity of storms). Here’s where NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center says the biggest threat will come later today:

(NOAA)
Severe weather outlook for Tuesday. (NOAA)

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Storms possible this week before a mild Thanksgiving in Houston

Lows across Houston this morning range from around 40 degrees well north of Houston to the lower 50s along the coast. This morning caps an absolutely fantastic fall weekend for the region after the season’s first real norther. We’ll now warm up a bit for the week of Thanksgiving and have to watch for the possibility of some storms.

Today

Winds are calm at the surface this morning, but we’ve already started to see the return of an onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to a mostly sunny, and warmer day with highs in the mid-70s across the area. It will feel a bit more humid, too. And lows tonight will only fall into upper 50s for inland areas, and mid-60s closer to the coast.

Tuesday

As moisture levels rise across the region, an upper-level system will approach the area from the west, and eventually bring a cold front through. However before that happens we’re likely to see a mostly cloudy day on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s. During the afternoon winds from the southeast could gust up to about 20mph during the afternoon with a pressure differential.

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday. (NOAA)
Severe weather outlook for Tuesday. (NOAA)

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One more abnormally warm day for Houston before a big cooldown

Some areas of Houston are seeing dense fog on this muggy morning, especially near and north of Interstate 10, especially to the west of Harris County. This should burn off by or before 10am CT, and then allow for a warm day.

Today

Under mostly sunny skies temperatures will climb into the low 80s today, and there won’t be much respite tonight, with some areas near the coast likely not falling below 70 degrees. But have no fear, these conditions won’t last.

Friday

Houston hasn’t had a true fall front yet this year, but one’s coming Friday, when the wind changes perceptibly, and cooler and drier air moves in right behind the frontal passage. The front itself will probably reach northern areas of Houston late during the morning, pass through the city during the early afternoon, and be off the coast by early evening. The key question is how much rain might come along with the front. Right now as the front moves through I’d guess we’ll see a fairly thin line of showers, with some embedded thunderstorms—but nothing too severe. Storms should end pretty quickly after the front with temperatures falling after that.

Expect a big change in temperatures as we go from +15 degrees above normal on Friday to -15 degrees on Sunday.
Expect a big change in temperatures as we go from +15 degrees above normal on Friday to -15 degrees on Sunday.

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