Eric Berger

Houston marathon forecast at 8 days: Lots of uncertainty, but some optimism

Given how cold it is this morning across Houston, it’s difficult to imagine warmer temperatures, but the region will indeed warm into the upper 70s by late this week. If you’ve been reading my long-range forecasts for the Houston Marathon, on Jan. 15th, you’ll know that my concern has been that the majority of model guidance has been indicating the heat won’t “break” before race day. However, over the last 24 to 26 hours the forecast models have been shifting their outlook by bringing the next front through sooner. Therefore, although the forecast remains uncertain, there is some cause for optimism. Let’s take a closer look.

GFS model

As has happened a lot this winter, the GFS model has flip-flopped on its forecast in the 7-10 day time frame. During three of the last four model runs the model has brought a cold front through the region on Saturday, Jan. 14th, which would of course be excellent news. If this scenario plays out, we could conceivably see race-time temperatures in the low-40s, with highs in the mid-50s.

GFS model forecast for 6am CT on Sunday Jan. 15th. I want this to be true, but … (Weather Bell)

This is a nice change from the previous outlooks, but I want to stress that the timing of the cold front remains far from locked in—and a cold frontal passage on Sunday at noon does us runners no good.

The European model

The ECMWF model has also trended colder, but again it boils down to the timing of the next cold front. About half of the ensemble members bring the front in before the beginning of the race, and about half bring it in on Sunday around noon or later. Therefore the European model has a range of low temperatures at race time from 35 to 65 degrees. That’s not very clarifying, is it?

Given the uncertainty, here’s my current thinking is on conditions at the start line:

Temperatures below 50 degrees: 50 percent

Temperatures from 50 to 60 degrees: 25 percent

Temperatures above 60 degrees: 25 percent

Precipitation: Rain chances will be dependent upon the timing of the front. If it comes through on Saturday, Sunday morning should be dry. But if the front pushes through on Sunday, it could make for a messy, wet race day.

Posted by Eric at 9:20am CT on Saturday

Exceptionally cold weather across Houston this morning

Wow! It’s really cold across the region this morning, with a 21-degree mark at Bush Intercontinental matching Jan. 17, 2014, as that site’s coldest temperature in the last half decade. The entire metro area (except for Galveston Island) is in the teens or 20s this morning, including sub-25s for much of the central Houston area. Wind chills across most of Houston are about 10 to 15 degrees.

It doesn’t look as though we’ll set records for low temperatures today, as that’s 19 degrees for both the Bush IAH and Hobby Airport locations, set in 1970. But this is very cold nonetheless.

Temperatures as of 8am CT on Saturday. (National Weather Service)

 

Conditions today will understandably be cold, despite the clearing skies. The high temperature today will struggle to reach 40 degrees and a northerly breeze will make things feel cold all day long.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

See full post

Hard freeze expected across Houston tonight

Good evening. Matt did a pretty good job of covering our bases this morning, but I just wanted to put out a reminder about the likelihood of a hard freeze for the northern half of the Houston area tonight, and on Saturday night.

So far it’s been an interesting day, with some moderate precipitation falling across the area. Although some inland parts of the region saw a wintry mix, temperatures remained just above freezing for most of the Houston area today, precluding snow, or sleet, from sticking to the ground. However it’s tantalizing to think that had it been a few degrees cooler today much of the city might be under a half of inch of snow. So close. But now the precipitation is moving out of the area so I don’t expect any problems on Houston area roadways tonight.

And a good thing too, with very cold overnight temperatures coming. A hard freeze warning, which means temperatures could fall below 26 degrees, is in effect for most areas north of Interstate 10 in the Houston region:

Freeze warnings for Friday night and Saturday morning. (National Weather Service)

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

See full post

January’s site sponsor: Westbury Christian School

A new year, and a new month, mean a new sponsor. And for January I’m pleased to announce that Westbury Christian School will sponsor Space City Weather.

(Westbury Christian School)

Here is a bit more about the school:

Westbury Christian School is a fully accredited, college preparatory school serving approximately 500 students from age 3 through 12th grade each year.
Conveniently located near major employment centers south and west of downtown, WCS is committed to excellence in academics, student activities, and spiritual development and offers competitively priced tuition to allow working families the opportunity to give their students a unique private education taught from a biblical perspective. WCS actively works to maintain diversity in its student enrollment, which reflects the populace of the neighborhood in which it is located, serving families from a variety of religious faiths, ethnicities and socioeconomic backgrounds.
The challenging academic program at WCS – including the open-enrollment Dr. David M. Lacey Advanced Placement (AP) program offering 17 courses across core disciplines – is designed to ensure college-readiness, while expanded classroom space and extracurricular offerings in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) encourage students to pursue careers in Houston’s key industries.
The Wildcat athletic program – which fields boys and girls middle school, junior varsity and varsity squads in a variety of team and individual sports – helps WCS students strengthen their bodies and build character while learning the importance of teamwork.
With instruction and extracurricular opportunities in band, chorus, ballet, theatre and the visual arts, the Fine Arts department at WCS helps students express their unique creative talents, individually and collectively, on the WCS stage and through appearances at recognized local and state competitions.
The campus ministry program ensures WCS is a welcoming place for all who are seeking spiritual growth, and local service projects and out-of-town mission trips allow students to show God’s love to those in need of a helping hand.
In its first 40+ years, WCS has helped thousands of hard-working students – including more than 1,300 alumni – prepare for success in every aspect of their personal and professional lives.

Their support allows us to continue to make the best possible forecasts we can make. Thank you for considering them for all any education needs. By doing so, you’ll be supporting this site!

For more information on sponsoring Space City Weather, please click here.