Eric Berger

A quick look at Monday for Houston—when uncertainty reigns

We’ve done OK today all things considered, with most areas of Houston receiving 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain, and the heaviest concentrations clustered over west and southwest Harris County. So what’s next?

For some time we’ve been quite concerned about the potential for very heavy rain on Monday because atmospheric moisture levels were forecast to be quite high. And indeed that’s still a possibility. However now some guidance is suggesting that an upper-level storm system moving in from west Texas tonight will remain further to the south, around Matagorda Bay and points south.

The HRRR model, and oher guidance, suggests the heaviest storms will develop south of Houston on Monday. (NOAA)
The HRRR model, and other guidance, suggests the heaviest storms will develop south of Houston on Monday. This is a radar prediction for 8am CT. (NOAA)

 

So there are basically two scenarios: One in which the heaviest storms do track into the greater Houston area, and bring 2 to 4 inches of rain for much of the metro area beginning some time on Monday morning. Under another scenario the storms track further south, and the region sees weather more like today, or even a little bit more benign. In either case I think we’ll see drying conditions by the afternoon or, at the latest, early evening hours.

Which scenario happens? I am not confident to call it at this point, but I’ll have a full update in the morning when we have a better idea of what’s going to happen.

Posted at 8:10pm CT Sunday by Eric Berger

Houston’s weather to remain a wet, stormy mess for awhile

The forecast is a mess. If you’re looking for light and sunshine, you’ve come to the wrong place.

As of 8am CT the radar over Houston is clear, but that is likely to change later today. A combination of daytime heating, an upper-level disturbance and a northward moving boundary between warmer and colder air should again create another rocking and rolling afternoon and evening.

TODAY

A boundary stretching from north of Corpus Christi to south of San Antonio is lifting north this morning, and should provide a focus for storms across parts of the Houston metro afternoon later this afternoon and evening.

A northward moving boundary will help focus showers today in Houston. (Intellicast)
A northward moving boundary will help focus showers today in Houston. (Intellicast)

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Flash flood warning issued for southern Houston metro area

Unfortunately, as expected, the ingredients have come together this afternoon and evening to focus development of strong thunderstorms across much of the Houston metro area. As much as 3 inches of rain have fallen across southern and southwest parts of Harris County, including the NRG Stadium area, causing minor to major street flooding.

These areas are now under a flash flood warning until 8:15pm CT.

A flash flood warning is in effect for this area until 8:15pm CT. (National Weather Service)
A flash flood warning is in effect for this area until 8:15pm CT. (National Weather Service)

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Storms likely late this afternoon and evening in Houston

Good morning. Unfortunately the greater Houston region remains in an unsettled pattern, and the kinds of storms we’ve seen on Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening are likely again today—and possibly in even greater abundance.

There are two factors at play with our weather today. To start with we’re going to see a mostly sunny morning. This will lead to daytime heating, which in turn will help set up a sea breeze. This flow from the Gulf of Mexico should lead to the development of coastal showers early this afternoon, and we should see them move steadily inland. At the same time a weak, late-spring cool front will be moving down though Texas, southward toward Houston, bringing some additional instability with it. The weather concern is that the sea breeze and front essentially collide, in which case we’ll have a big party in the atmosphere for instability.

This means the potential for locally heavy rain, hail and possible severe thunderstorms, like we’ve seen the last couple of afternoons. Only potentially more widespread. Here’s how one model, the HRRR, suggests conditions will look at 6pm today.

HRRR model forecast for 6pm CT on Saturday. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast for 6pm CT on Saturday. (Weather Bell)

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