Eric Berger

Tropical moisture to bring a wet, mostly gray weekend to Houston

It’s quite warm, in the mid-70s, and muggy across Houston as we reach the midpoint of September. The radar is also dry, but that won’t last too long with tropical moisture looming offshore.

Thursday

Most of the moisture isn’t going to arrive just yet, and enough lingering high pressure should limit showers and thunderstorms today, especially for inland areas. I’d only expect scattered to isolated storms, with highs around 90 degrees.

Friday through Monday

You may have noticed that the National Hurricane Center has started to track a blob of tropical moisture that is moving toward the Texas coast. Due to significant wind shear this system is highly unlikely to develop into a depression or tropical storm, but Galveston and other coastal regions should nonetheless see some effects, such as stronger than normal waves and tides 2 to 3 feet above normal levels. Rain chances will also be highest along the coast.

On Saturday precipitable water levels will rise across the region as tropical moisture moves in from the Gulf. (Weather Bell)
On Saturday precipitable water levels will rise across the region as tropical moisture moves in from the Gulf. (Weather Bell)

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Scattered strong thunderstorms likely to continue for Houston

On Tuesday afternoon some strong storms developed over the central Houston area and then migrated to the northwest, causing temporary street flooding issues near downtown and over the Cypress area. This pattern of isolated to scattered showers and heavy thunderstorms will continue for the next couple of days, before more widespread rain is possible on Friday and through the weekend.

A view of downtown, looking east from Eldridge at the Katy Freeway. (shared by cannonfodder002 on Twitter)
A view of downtown, looking east from Eldridge at the Katy Freeway. (shared by cannonfodder002 on Twitter)

 

Wednesday and Thursday

Some modest high pressure should limit showers and thunderstorms on today and Thursday, allowing for partly sunny skies and highs around 90, or in the low 90s. Storms probably won’t develop inland until the afternoon hours when daytime heating nears its peak.

Friday through Monday

As pressure fall slightly, and access to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico increases, I expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms for this weekend, and early next week. As we’ve been seeing this week, heavy storms will develop in some areas of town, but not others, so it’s difficult to pinpoint exact rain chances. Still, most of the area should see about one inch, with isolated areas seeing double or triple that, and other areas less.

NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Monday. (Weather Bell)
NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Monday. (Weather Bell)

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Moisture returns, and so does unsettled weather for Houston

Good morning. It’s the eighth anniversary of Hurricane Ike, which made landfall on the eastern end of Galveston Island and moved into the bay. The storm produced a tremendous 15-foot storm surge, and 10 to 20 inches of rain over Harris County. For anyone in the region at the time, it was a harrowing experience. But since then we have largely been free of tropical storms and hurricanes, and it’s looking increasingly likely that will be the case for 2016—although we’re not there quite yet.

In any case, let’s take a look at our rather unsettled weather pattern for the next week or so.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The moisture is back, and we’re seeing evidence of that from a narrow band of thunderstorms that moved in this morning from the Gulf of Mexico, into parts of the southeastern Houston metro area. A flood advisory is in effect for areas just east of Interstate 45 through 7:45 am this morning.

Area of flood advisory in effect until 7:45am CT (National Weather Service)
Area of flood advisory in effect until 7:45am CT (National Weather Service)

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One more dry day before a return to muggier, wetter weather

Good morning. After some slightly drier air brought a pleasant day to the Houston region on Sunday, we should see one more sunny and warm—but not excessively hot—day before the area settles back into a muggy, warm and on-and-off wet pattern.

Monday

Houston will enjoy another mostly sunny day, with highs likely in the upper 80s. Some coastal areas may see showers during the afternoon, with warmer temperatures. But all in all, for the first half of September, today will be a pretty nice day with moderately lower humidity levels.

In this water vapor image you can see a pocket of drier air over Houston. It will be replaced by Gulf moisture later this week. (NOAA)
In this water vapor image you can see a pocket of drier air over Houston. It will be replaced by Gulf moisture later this week. (NOAA)

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