Eric Berger

As we’ve been saying Houston has to get through one more bout of potentially heavy rain before seeing a reprieve from this wet pattern—and that bout is coming. In anticipation of that the National Weather Service has placed the entire region under a flash flood watch from 10am CT today through midnight.

Although conditions are dry at the surface, just above the surface moisture is starting to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico, and we’re going to see very high levels of atmospheric moisture today. At the same time a large upper-level system is moving in from the west, bringing with it the capability to lift this moisture upward. This lift will help to generate moderate, and then heavy rain later this morning and during the afternoon hours.

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Good morning. A capping inversion has largely held over Houston during the overnight hours, and as Matt indicated yesterday afternoon this helped to weaken a storm system as it moved into the region from the west. As a result the metro area is waking up to light, or no rain at all.

TODAY

This light rain will come to an end later this morning, but what happens this afternoon is anyone’s guess. With a stalled front and some daytime heating we could see development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, or maybe not much activity at all. I’m not too concerned. Highs in the mid-80s.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY

We’re going to see a surge in atmospheric moisture levels on Thursday into Friday, which should increase the region’s rain chances for most of the area. Fortunately this is not looking like a washout, with most of the area probably receiving 2 inches of rain, or less, during this period.

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Good morning. Houston remains in an active storm pattern and will likely do so through Friday morning or so. Let’s take it day by day.

TUESDAY

We’ve been in a much appreciated lull since Monday afternoon, and I expect that period to continue through at least this morning and early afternoon. That’s because warmer air aloft—a capping inversion—is going to limit the ability of air at the surface to rise. It’s not clear when the cap will break, but it’s possible that could happen as early as late this afternoon. The concern is that, once rains get going, there is the potential for severe weather in the form of hail, and damaging winds.

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Well, the southern scenario did indeed play out today, with the bulk of the heavy rain remaining well to the south of the Houston metro area. Areas between Corpus Christi and Victoria received 8 to 12 inches of rain, but the city of Houston generally got 1 inch or less. This increases my confidence that we’re going to get out of this week without major, widespread flooding. But some trouble spots remain, and first up is Tuesday night.

As the rains move out of Houston later this afternoon we’re going to see a break in widespread rain. There may be a few pop-up showers, but I think the radar is going to remain pretty clear for the next 24 hours. But by mid-afternoon Tuesday, with enough daytime heating, we could see some seabreeze showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. For me the bigger concern is a cool front, an associated storm system that is going to roll over central Texas during the day. That area is under an “enhanced” threat of severe weather as a result. This system may potentially impact the Houston area after sunset on Tuesday.

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