Houston’s official trick-or-treat forecast for Halloween

We’re fast coming up on Halloween and I’m happy to report that we’re not going to face the kind of uncertainty we did in 2015, when Houston was in the midst of widespread rain storms that threatened to ruin Halloween. (We got soaked in my neighborhood in Clear Lake).

Rain chances aren’t zero this year, because the onshore flow will resume in force on Monday, which should further increase humidity levels for the region. This could produce some isolated showers for coastal areas, but I don’t expect any widespread issues. Right now it looks like rain chances will improve on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A Halloween scene at the Zoo Boo. (Photo by Jason Cross/Flickr)
A Halloween scene at the Zoo Boo. (Photo by Jason Cross/Flickr)

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A cool front finally shows up on Houston’s horizon

Houston’s forecast remains largely unchanged. As with some previous mornings, calm winds and cooler grounds will lead to the development of some radiation fog this morning and likely through the weekend. A front remains several days off.

Today and Friday

With high pressure off to the west and easterly winds, we’ll continue to see warm but not unpleasant days with highs in the mid 80s, and nighttime temperatures in the 60s (down near 60 degrees north of Houston, and upper 60s along the coast). Skies will remain mostly sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

High pressure moves closer to the Houston region, so we may see temperatures tick up a degree or two, but I’d still anticipate highs in the mid-80s for the most part with lows in the 60s.

Halloween

We’ll start to see more moisture moving into the Houston area on Monday, and this could lead to the development of a few scattered showers later during the day. I wouldn’t worry about anything too disruptive for trick-or-treating, however. Highs, again, in the mid-80s. Temperatures during the trick-or-treating hour will likely be in the mid- to upper-70s.

Ten-day forecast from the GFS model. (Weather Bell)
Ten-day forecast from the GFS model. (Weather Bell)

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Houston’s forecast is neither trick nor treat, just boring

Well, if you like consistency, this forecast is for you. And if you want to see some truly fall-like weather, it is not. For the remainder of October, and at least the first few days of November, Houston will continue to see temperatures 2 to 5 degrees above normal.

Wednesday through Sunday

A stagnant pattern has settled over Houston, with high pressure to the west of the region, and easterly winds. This will lead to mostly sunny days, rain chances near zero and warmish temperatures for late October.

It's not just Houston. With high pressure over the western United States temperatures in some areas may be 25 degrees or more warmer than normal. (Weather Bell)
It’s not just Houston. With high pressure over the western United States temperatures in some areas may be 25 degrees or more warmer than normal. (Weather Bell)

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Houston nearing a drought again, little relief in sight

With very little (ok, none) rain in the forecast let’s discuss for a moment the possibility of a drought returning to the greater Houston area.

A drought returns?

Harris County hasn’t been in a “moderate” or worse drought since August, 2015. However, last week most of the region fell into the “abnormally dry” category, which is just one step below a drought in the catalog kept by the US Drought Monitor.

(US Drought Monitor)
(US Drought Monitor)

We are starting to see other indications of almost-drought like conditions crop up across the state after a dry late summer and early fall. According to the Texas A&M Forest Service, 57 Texas counties now have burn bans, including Waller, Austin and Wharton counties just to the west of the Houston metro area.

Texas counties with burn bans. (Texas A&M Forest Service)
Texas counties with burn bans. (Texas A&M Forest Service)

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