Eric Berger

Unofficial forecast for the Houston Marathon: Potentially very cold

Dear runners, how cold do you like it?

I must caution that we’re still nine days out from the start of the Houston Marathon, but whooboy right now we are setting up for cold conditions. Three of the major global models, the GFS, Canadian and European, all show a fairly strong cold front moving into Houston on the Friday or Saturday before the marathon, with race time temperatures in the low- to upper-30s. That’s right, I would not rule out freezing conditions at the run’s 7 a.m. CT start time Sunday.

This morning I spoke with Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with Weather Bell whose forecast skills I respect, and he says when it gets cold like this the Canadian model does pretty well, and at this point its the coldest (see attached image). If the front has moved through I don’t think we will have to worry about rainfall, the big concern will be wind chill, even 10 mph at that temperature would make it feel like the 20s during the run.

How cold is too cold? Here's the Canadian model temperature forecast for 6 a.m. Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)
How cold is too cold? Here’s the Canadian model temperature forecast for 6 a.m. Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)

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Unofficial forecast for the Houston Marathon: 10 days to go!

Hooray! We’re now within 10 days of the marathon so we can at least start to begin to look at global model forecast outputs and not laugh outright. Right now the main difficulty for the marathon forecast is timing the arrival and strength of a cold front before race day.

Here’s how each of the global models handle the front, along with conditions at 7 a.m. Sunday morning:

Canadian forecast model: Front arrives late on Friday, Jan. 15th. By Sunday morning it is cold, with temperatures in the low- to mid-30s. No rain. Sunny with moderate winds.

European forecast model: Front arrives on Saturday, Jan 16th. By Sunday morning temperatures are in the mid- to upper-30s. No rain. Sunny with moderate winds.

GFS forecast model: The front is much less pronounced. By Sunday morning temperatures are in the upper 40s. Sunny with moderate winds.

The Canadian model is COLD. Probably too cold. (Weather Bell)
The Canadian model is COLD. Probably too cold. (Weather Bell)

Looking at the ensembles for the European model, about 80 percent of the members show colder-than-normal temperatures for the morning of the marathon. Just 1 out of the 50 model runs show temperatures 6 Fahrenheit degrees, or more, warmer than normal. This can give us pretty good confidence in at least seasonable, if not cooler than normal, weather for the marathon.

With 10 days to go the precise timing of the front remains a real challenge. For example, if it is slower then conditions on the morning of the race could be warmer (worst case scenario is probably about 55 degrees). A frontal passage during the race would also bring rain. But right now that seems less likely than an earlier passage.

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After strong storms, some sunshine and warmer weather — but it won’t last

Did the thunderstorms wake you last night? They were a bit stronger and more widespread than anticipated, as the upper-level disturbance in the atmosphere was able to really produce a vigorous upward motion in the lower levels of the atmosphere. As a result most of the Houston area received 1-2 inches of rain during the last 24 hours. Fortunately the heaviest showers came during the overnight hours, as expected, and have now moved along.

24-hour rain totals in the Houston metro area. (HCOEM)
24-hour rain totals in the Houston metro area. (HCOEM)

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Unofficial forecast for the Houston Marathon: 11 days to go!

We’re getting close to the point where we can start to look at 10-day forecasts for the marathon, but we’re not there yet. Still, the models remain pretty consistent regarding probable conditions that we’re likely to see for the morning of the run, and the best news is that there’s still no signal whatsoever for very warm conditions.

Right now we’re looking at a strong cold front coming into Houston on Saturday, Jan. 9th, which will keep the region cooler than normal through next Tuesday. The period of next Wednesday through Saturday, Jan. 16th appears to bring near-normal or slightly warmer than normal conditions. However the models appear to be trying to bring a cool front into the region something around Saturday, January 16th. I have to say that trying to time cool fronts 10 days ahead of time is really challenging.

The GFS model forecasts temperatures slightly below normal for Houston Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)
The GFS model forecasts temperatures slightly below normal for Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)

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