Eric Berger

The front that arrived Tuesday morning has finally begun dragging drier air into Houston. Temperatures at Bush Intercontinental Airport fell below 70 degrees this morning for the first time since June 5. It’s not exactly cold, but it is cooler, and drier. And there’s more seasonably pleasant, almost fall-like weather to come.

Today through Sunday

It’s a rather simple forecast for Houston. Drier air will continue to move into the region today, and a reinforcing cool front should arrive on Thursday. Add it all up and we’ll have highs through the weekend in the 80s, with daytime temperatures in the low 80s possible on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows should be in the 60s except for along the coast (around 70 degrees), and upper 50s for far inland areas, such as College Station. Friday and Saturday should be the coolest mornings.

All throughout the rest of the week we should see mostly sunny skies, and drier air. It’s not exactly super fall-like, but after more than 100 days of heat and humidity, it’s going to be enough.

Next week

We should see a very gradual warm-up beginning on Monday or so, as winds turn back around from the Gulf of Mexico, and it looks like Wednesday and Thursday or so of next week will bring us briefly back into a muggy, late-summer-like pattern. However, another cool front may well move through, perhaps on Friday or thereabouts. Fall, truly, appears to have arrived.

Tropics

Matt did an excellent job of laying out the status of Invest 99L, which should become Tropical Storm Matthew during the next couple of days as it moves into the Western Caribbean Sea. Looking at some of the overnight model runs it seems increasingly likely that this storm will turn north at some point next week (possibly toward Florida, but more likely toward the Bahamas), as it slogs around the Caribbean. I’d rate the chances of it moving into the Gulf of Mexico as fairly low, and as near zero for it to continue moving west toward Texas. We’ll nonetheless continue to track it.

Posted at 6:50am CT Wednesday by Eric

The much-discussed first front of the fall season has pushed off the coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, but drier (and cooler) air has largely lagged behind. As we suggested on Monday, it will be a slow process, but much more fall-like weather is still on the way.

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We can now say with increasing confidence that some sort of cool front is coming to Houston, but it does not appear to be a classic, blow-in-from-the-northwest type of system that will knock down humidity and temperatures within the span of a few hours. Rather, drier and eventually cooler air should move into the area rather slowly, over a period from Monday to Wednesday. But something is better than nothing!

Today

Scattered showers over the Gulf of Mexico this morning should migrate in later today, with periods of sunshine and clouds, and scattered showers. Still warm and muggy, with highs near 90 degrees and lows in the mid-70s.

Sunday and Monday

Rain chances will be higher on Sunday and Monday, as moisture pools ahead of the front. Can see most of the area getting between 0.5 and 1.5 inches, with the potential for greater amounts in isolated areas. The “front” might move into central Texas on Sunday night, and will approach the western fringes of the Houston metro area sometime on Monday, probably during the morning. However it is unlikely that much of Houston will see drier air until late Monday at the earliest.

Tuesday

As some drier air moves in rain chances should fall, although probably won’t go away entirely. Highs will likely be in the upper 80s. Lows may be anywhere from the low 60s to the west of Houston to the upper 70s near the coast.

Wednesday through Friday

At this point drier air should finally work its way more fully into the area, bringing us mostly sunny skies. I don’t think the global forecast models have a great handle of temperatures yet, but it seems likely we’ll see highs in the 80s (low or high, not clear), and lows in the 60s (again, could be low or high). Although it won’t be cold, the cooler, drier evenings and mornings should nonetheless feel great. And once the first front comes through, it’s easier to get the second one.

Posted on Saturday at 8:10am CT by Eric